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ENGLAND › LEAGUE ONE
10.10.2026 14:00
Keepmoat Stadium
Referee: Blair Harrison
Doncaster
Match Timeline
Burton Albion
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
12'
Jordan Thomas ↔ T. Nixon
Doncaster
🟨
39'
Matthew Dennis
Burton Albion
🟨
41'
Owen Bailey
Doncaster
⚽
45+2'
Leon Ayinde · Assist: Alfie May
Doncaster
🔄
45'
Will Collar ↔ Toby Sibbick
Burton Albion
🟨
70'
Robbie Gotts
Doncaster
🔄
71'
Matthew Dennis ↔ Gbemi Arubi
Burton Albion
🔄
71'
Charlie Webster ↔ Kain Adom
Burton Albion
🔄
74'
Brandon Hanlan ↔ Isaac Hutchinson
Doncaster
🔄
80'
Leon Ayinde ↔ Hakeeb Adelakun
Doncaster
🔄
80'
Jack Armer ↔ H. Araujo
Burton Albion
🟨
84'
H. Araujo
Burton Albion
🟨
89'
Hakeeb Adelakun
Doncaster

Doncaster vs Burton Albion Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 75.8%
Odds 4.51
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.86
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
75.8%
4.51 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.86 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.5%
1.25 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
10.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
15.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Doncaster Win 17.2%
Draw 7%
Burton Albion Win 75.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Doncaster1.47
Burton Albion1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Doncaster Doncaster
WWDLW
21 GF / 16 GA
Burton Albion Burton Albion
WLDWL
16 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
6
BTTS Yes
8
6
Over 2.5
8
4.14
Shots on Goal
3.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Doncaster Doncaster 14 matches
Burton Albion Burton Albion 14 matches
Doncaster Statistic Burton Albion
4 Wins 4
5 Draws 5
5 Losses 5
21 Goals For 16
16 Goals Against 20
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
6 BTTS Yes 8
10 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 4
4.14 Shots On Goal 3.11
13.71 Total Shots 8.89
4.86 Corners 2.89
49.9% Ball Possession 45.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Burton Albion. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Burton Albion carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 12 points while Doncaster sit 21 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Doncaster Analysis

With 6 points from 7 games and a place of 21, Doncaster still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 8:9, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through A. May (2 goals), J. Senior (1 goals), O. Bailey (1 goals), with creative support from L. Ayinde (1 assists), J. Thomas (1 assists), Bayley McCann (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Burton Albion Analysis

Burton Albion are currently 8 in the standings with 12 points from 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, while the 14:15 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on F. Delap (3 goals), J. Armer (2 goals), C. Webster (1 goals), with creative support from K. Lofthouse (3 assists), J. Armer (1 assists), Sulyman Krubally (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Doncaster won 5 times, Burton Albion won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:17 from Doncaster's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93%)
Predicted formations: Doncaster 3-4-2-1 / Burton Albion 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Doncaster wins 5, draws 6, Burton Albion wins 3

Standings

League One
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 1 3 18:12 6 19
W W L W W
2 9 5 2 2 8:5 3 17
D D W W W
3 9 5 1 3 20:11 9 16
W W D L W
4 9 4 4 1 16:9 7 16
D W L D D
5 9 4 4 1 14:11 3 16
W D D W D
6 9 4 3 2 22:11 11 15
W D D W L
7 8 4 3 1 16:9 7 15
D W D W W
8 8 4 3 1 15:8 7 15
D D D W W
9 8 3 3 2 12:8 4 12
W L W W D
10 10 3 3 4 14:16 -2 12
L L W D L
11 9 3 3 3 13:15 -2 12
D W D D L
12 9 3 3 3 7:10 -3 12
L D D W W
13 9 3 2 4 13:11 2 11
D L W L D
14 8 3 2 3 16:15 1 11
W L L D W
15 9 2 4 3 14:20 -6 10
L D W W D
16 8 2 3 3 9:9 0 9
W W L L D
17 8 2 3 3 10:14 -4 9
L D W L W
18 8 2 2 4 13:14 -1 8
L L D L L
19 8 2 2 4 8:15 -7 8
L D L L W
20 9 2 2 5 7:14 -7 8
W L L D L
21 8 2 2 4 9:20 -11 8
L W D L L
22 8 1 4 3 8:11 -3 7
L L L D D
23 8 0 6 2 9:15 -6 6
L D D D L
24 8 1 1 6 5:13 -8 4
L L D L W
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two