GEORGIA EROVNULI LIGA
05.09.2026 14:00
Tengiz Burjanadze Stadium
Referee: T. Samsonashvili

Dila vs Gagra Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.5%
Odds 1.68
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.90
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.5%
1.68
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.90
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Dila Win 66.5%
Draw 5.3%
Gagra Win 28.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dila1.25
Gagra1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dila Dila
WWDLW
30 GF / 33 GA
Gagra Gagra
WLDWL
35 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.15
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
11
BTTS Yes
18
13
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dila Dila 26 matches
Gagra Gagra 30 matches
Dila Statistic Gagra
10 Wins 8
3 Draws 12
13 Losses 10
30 Goals For 35
33 Goals Against 42
1.15 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
11 BTTS Yes 18
16 Over 1.5 25
13 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 5
7 Clean Sheets 5
9 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0.8
0 Total Shots 0.8
0 Corners 0.2
0% Ball Possession 9.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Dila's more proactive style and Gagra's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Gagra. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Gagra having the stronger overall control.

Dila Analysis

So far, Dila have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 30 points from 21 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, while the 26:22 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Gagra Analysis

Gagra sit 8 with 24 points after 22 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 9 draws, and 8 losses, while the 21:30 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Dila won 8 times, Gagra won 1 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:3 from Dila's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
Predicted formations: Dila 3-5-2 / Gagra 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Dila wins 8, draws 6, Gagra wins 1

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 12 7 6 31:21 10 43
D L D W W
2 25 12 7 6 41:32 9 43
W W W W W
3 24 10 9 5 36:27 9 39
D D W L W
4 23 11 4 8 32:27 5 37
L W L L W
5
Dila Home
24 11 3 10 31:25 6 36
W W L D W
6 25 8 9 8 38:29 9 33
D D L D W
7 25 9 5 11 34:46 -12 32
L L D W L
8
Gagra Away
25 6 10 9 24:32 -8 28
D L W L D
9 25 5 10 10 33:38 -5 25
D D L L D
10 25 2 10 13 19:42 -23 16
D D W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2