IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
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The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.9%
Odds 1.41
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.95
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.71
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.9%
1.41
BTTS Yes
86%
1.95
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.71
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
1.83
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.10
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Derry City Win 57.9%
Draw 19.7%
Sligo Rovers Win 22.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Derry City1.29
Sligo Rovers1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Derry City Derry City
WWDLW
37 GF / 42 GA
Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers
WLDWL
36 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.16
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
20
BTTS Yes
16
16
Over 2.5
17
3.77
Shots on Goal
2.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Derry City Derry City 32 matches
Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers 33 matches
Derry City Statistic Sligo Rovers
6 Wins 9
12 Draws 7
14 Losses 17
37 Goals For 36
42 Goals Against 49
1.16 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
20 BTTS Yes 16
21 Over 1.5 23
16 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 10
6 Clean Sheets 8
10 Failed To Score 12
3.77 Shots On Goal 2.56
10.77 Total Shots 9.24
4.9 Corners 3.56
45.5% Ball Possession 45%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Derry City's more proactive style and Sligo Rovers's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Sligo Rovers arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sligo Rovers. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Derry City Analysis

So far, Derry City have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 29 points from 25 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 11 draws, and 8 losses, while the 32:31 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on James Clarke (4 goals), Kévin Santos (3 goals), Afolabi Akinyemi (2 goals), with creative support from Ben Doherty (2 assists), James Clarke (1 assists), Kévin Santos (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Sligo Rovers Analysis

Sligo Rovers approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 21 points from 25 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 22:42, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through William Fitzgerald (3 goals), Cian Kavanagh (3 goals), Archie Meekison (2 goals), with creative support from William Fitzgerald (3 assists), Archie Meekison (3 assists), Cian Kavanagh (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Derry City won 5 times, Sligo Rovers won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:17 from Derry City's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.3%)
Predicted formations: Derry City 4-2-3-1 / Sligo Rovers 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Derry City wins 5, draws 4, Sligo Rovers wins 5
Last matches: Derry City
02.08.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
30.07.26
UEF
Derry City
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
23.07.26
UEF
Derry City
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
16.07.26
UEF
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
1
2
L
09.07.26
UEF
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
2
3
L
03.07.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
4
L
26.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
0
W
22.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
19.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
4
1
W
29.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
1
2
L
25.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
0
1
L
04.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
17.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
2
2
D
Last matches: Sligo Rovers
31.07.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Dundalk
1
1
D
25.07.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Drogheda United
2
2
D
14.07.26
Fri
Sligo Rovers
Coleraine FC
1
2
L
11.07.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Galway United
2
3
L
03.07.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
1
2
L
27.06.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Shelbourne
2
2
D
19.06.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
0
4
L
29.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Bohemians
1
3
L
22.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
2
1
W
16.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Galway United
1
4
L
08.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Shelbourne
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Drogheda United
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Dundalk
2
0
W
18.04.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
2
0
W
10.04.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Bohemians
2
1
W
06.04.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
0
0
D
03.04.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
21.03.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Shelbourne
0
1
L
H2H: Derry City vs Sligo Rovers
06.04.26
H2H
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
0
0
D
06.02.26
H2H
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
2
1
W
09.01.26
H2H
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
1
0
L
05.10.25
H2H
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
12.07.25
H2H
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
2
0
L
22.04.25
H2H
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
3
0
W
15.03.25
H2H
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
0
1
W
21.01.25
H2H
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
2
3
W
14.10.24
H2H
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
1
1
D
04.07.24
H2H
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
2
1
L
24.05.24
H2H
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
2
2
D
24.02.24
H2H
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
0
0
D
20.01.24
H2H
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
5
4
L
18.01.24
H2H
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
0
0
D
22.09.23
H2H
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
1
0
L
Last matches: Derry City
30.07.26
UEF
Derry City
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
16.07.26
UEF
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
1
2
L
03.07.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
4
L
26.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
0
W
12.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
4
1
W
25.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
20.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
2
D
13.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
2
L
27.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
4
2
W
20.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
0
1
L
13.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
2
2
D
06.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
2
1
W
H2H at home: Derry City
06.02.26
H2H
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
2
1
W
05.10.25
H2H
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
22.04.25
H2H
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
3
0
W
14.10.24
H2H
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
1
1
D
24.05.24
H2H
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
2
2
D
Last matches: Sligo Rovers
31.07.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Dundalk
1
1
D
11.07.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Galway United
2
3
L
19.06.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
0
4
L
22.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
2
1
W
08.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Shelbourne
0
0
D
01.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Drogheda United
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Bohemians
2
1
W
03.04.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
16.03.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Dundalk
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Galway United
0
1
L
20.02.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
0
0
D
06.02.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
1
2
L
17.01.26
Fri
Sligo Rovers
Treaty United
1
2
L
13.01.26
Fri
Sligo Rovers
Finn Harps
0
1
L
H2H away: Sligo Rovers
06.02.26
H2H
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
2
1
L
05.10.25
H2H
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
1
0
L
22.04.25
H2H
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
3
0
L
14.10.24
H2H
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
1
1
D
24.05.24
H2H
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
2
2
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 7.07
Draw 4.66
Home 1.41
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.95
Draw 2.55
Home 1.89
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.23
Over 2.25 1.52
Over 2.5 1.71
Over 2.75 1.91
Over 3.0 2.22
Over 3.25 2.52
Over 3.5 2.81
Over 4.5 5.24
Under 1.5 4.10
Under 2.25 2.52
Under 2.5 2.14
Under 2.75 1.91
Under 3.0 1.67
Under 3.25 1.52
Under 3.5 1.42
Under 4.5 1.15
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.25
Draw 4.33
Home 1.40
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 7.00
Draw 2.40
Home 1.91
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 6.00
Draw 2.75
Home 1.73
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.22
Over 2.5 1.73
Over 3.5 2.75
Over 4.5 5.50
Over 5.5 11.00
Over 6.5 23.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 13.00
Under 1.5 4.00
Under 2.5 2.08
Under 3.5 1.40
Under 4.5 1.14
Under 5.5 1.05
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 7.09
Draw 4.50
Home 1.42
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.49
Draw 2.38
Home 1.92
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 6.12
Draw 2.85
Home 1.72
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.00
Over 1.0 1.00
Over 1.25 1.10
Over 1.5 1.19
Over 1.75 1.25
Over 2.0 1.30
Over 2.25 1.53
Over 2.5 1.71
Over 2.75 1.89
Over 3.0 2.12
Over 3.25 2.36
Over 3.5 2.61
Over 3.75 3.08
Over 4.0 4.00
Over 4.25 4.35
Over 4.5 4.65
Over 4.75 5.79
Over 5.0 7.90
Over 5.5 8.50
Over 6.5 23.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 12.00
Under 1.0 9.10
Under 1.25 5.21
Under 1.5 3.82
Under 1.75 3.46
Under 2.0 3.12
Under 2.25 2.44
Under 2.5 2.10
Under 2.75 1.88
Under 3.0 1.62
Under 3.25 1.47
Under 3.5 1.39
Under 3.75 1.28
Under 4.0 1.17
Under 4.25 1.14
Under 4.5 1.12
Under 4.75 1.07
Under 5.0 1.02
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 7.00
Draw 4.20
Home 1.43
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.25
Draw 2.35
Home 1.89
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.80
Draw 2.75
Home 1.77
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.23
Over 2.0 1.36
Over 2.5 1.76
Over 3.0 2.30
Over 3.5 2.88
Over 4.0 4.60
Over 4.25 4.90
Over 4.5 5.20
Over 5.0 9.50
Under 1.5 3.60
Under 2.0 2.85
Under 2.5 1.92
Under 3.0 1.52
Under 3.5 1.34
Under 4.0 1.15
Under 4.25 1.13
Under 4.5 1.12
Under 5.0 1.04

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 6 5 40:22 18 51
D W W D W
2 26 12 8 6 41:22 19 44
D D D W L
3 26 12 8 6 41:28 13 44
D W W W L
4 26 9 10 7 40:38 2 37
D D L L L
5 25 8 10 7 35:36 -1 34
L W D L D
6 26 6 12 8 33:32 1 30
D L W D L
7 25 7 8 10 33:40 -7 29
D D W L L
8 26 6 9 11 31:43 -12 27
D D W L L
9 26 5 10 11 34:47 -13 25
W D D W W
10 26 5 7 14 23:43 -20 22
D D L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation