IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
Referee: M. Lynch
Derry City
Match Timeline
Shelbourne
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
13'
Brandon Fleming
Derry City
🟨
27'
Jonathan Lunney
Shelbourne
🟨
37'
Sean Gannon
Shelbourne
🟨
40'
Barry Cotter
Derry City
🟨
45'
Cameron Dummigan
Derry City
🔄
46'
J. Clarke ↔ D. Akinyemi
Derry City
🟨
55'
Harry Wood
Shelbourne
🔄
60'
J. Martin ↔ M. Odubeko
Shelbourne
🔄
60'
S. Boyd ↔ R. Freitas
Shelbourne
🟨
65'
Adam O'Reilly
Derry City
🔄
67'
B. Doherty ↔ J. McClean
Derry City
🔄
71'
C. Dummigan ↔ H. Rylah
Derry City
🔄
88'
H. Wood ↔ A. Coote
Shelbourne
🔄
88'
E. Caffrey ↔ E. Chapman
Shelbourne

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
80.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Derry City Win 36.2%
Draw 19.5%
Shelbourne Win 44.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Derry City1.21
Shelbourne1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
Derry City Derry City
WWDLW
22 GF / 24 GA
Shelbourne Shelbourne
WLDWL
37 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
12
BTTS Yes
16
10
Over 2.5
15
4.61
Shots on Goal
4.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Derry City Derry City 20 matches
Shelbourne Shelbourne 21 matches
Derry City Statistic Shelbourne
4 Wins 9
9 Draws 7
7 Losses 5
22 Goals For 37
24 Goals Against 29
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
12 BTTS Yes 16
12 Over 1.5 17
10 Over 2.5 15
5 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 2
4.61 Shots On Goal 4.47
13 Total Shots 14.53
6.22 Corners 5.53
54.4% Ball Possession 54.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Shelbourne. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Derry City expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Shelbourne in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Shelbourne having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Derry City Analysis

Derry City sit 6 with 20 points after 17 league matches. The record of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 21:21 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Duffy (5 goals), James Clarke (4 goals), D. Akinyemi (3 goals), with creative support from Ben Doherty (2 assists), Brandon Fleming (2 assists), J. McClean (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Shelbourne Analysis

Placed 5 with 21 points from 16 outings, Shelbourne continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 24:24 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through H. Wood (6 goals), J. Martin (6 goals), Daniel Kelly (4 goals), with creative support from M. Lundgren (3 assists), H. Wood (2 assists), A. Coote (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Derry City won 4 times, Shelbourne won 3 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:10 from Derry City's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.47 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.5%)
Predicted formations: Derry City 4-3-3 / Shelbourne 3-5-2
H2H summary: Derry City wins 4, draws 8, Shelbourne wins 3
Stats
Derry City Derry City
Shelbourne Shelbourne
Shots on Goal
1
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
0
4 Corner Kicks 4
12 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 4
72% Ball Possession 28%
10 Total Shots 2
1 Shots on Goal 1
5 Shots off Goal 2
4 Blocked Shots 0
6 Shots insidebox 1
4 Shots outsidebox 1
0 Goalkeeper Saves 1
530 Total passes 206
420 Passes accurate 95
0.83 expected_goals 0.07
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Derry City
Formation
Shelbourne
E. Beach
E. Beach
P. McClean
P. McClean
C. Barr
C. Barr
B. Fleming
B. Fleming
B. Cotter
B. Cotter
A. O'Reilly
A. O'Reilly
J. Olayinka
J. Olayinka
B. Doherty
B. Doherty
K. Santos
K. Santos
J. Clarke
J. Clarke
C. Dummigan
C. Dummigan
W. Speel
W. Speel
Z. Ibsen Rossi
Z. Ibsen Rossi
P. Barrett
P. Barrett
K. Ledwidge
K. Ledwidge
S. Gannon
S. Gannon
H. Wood
H. Wood
J. Lunney
J. Lunney
E. Caffrey
E. Caffrey
D. Kelly
D. Kelly
S. Boyd
S. Boyd
J. Martin
J. Martin
Derry City 3-4-3
Starting XI
13
E. Beach
G
3
P. McClean
D
22
C. Barr
D
19
B. Fleming
🟨 13'
D
2
B. Cotter
🟨 40'
M
8
A. O'Reilly
🟨 65'
M
28
J. Olayinka
M
14
B. Doherty
↓ 67'
M
21
K. Santos
F
15
J. Clarke
↓ 46'
F
23
C. Dummigan
↓ 71' 🟨 45'
F
Substitutes
26
S. Callister
G
27
L. Boyce
F
17
J. Thomas
F
31
C. Downey
M
16
J. McClean
↑ 67'
D
9
D. Akinyemi
↑ 46'
F
25
A. Bannon
D
24
H. Rylah
↑ 71'
M
32
T. Doherty
Shelbourne 3-5-2
Starting XI
1
W. Speel
G
24
Z. Ibsen Rossi
D
29
P. Barrett
D
4
K. Ledwidge
D
2
S. Gannon
🟨 37'
M
7
H. Wood
↓ 88' 🟨 55'
M
6
J. Lunney
🟨 27'
M
27
E. Caffrey
↓ 88'
M
17
D. Kelly
M
9
S. Boyd
↓ 60'
F
10
J. Martin
↓ 60'
F
Substitutes
31
C. Walsh
G
14
A. Coote
↑ 88'
M
28
M. Lundgren
M
15
S. Bone
D
5
E. Chapman
↑ 88'
M
11
M. Odubeko
↑ 60'
F
20
R. Freitas
↑ 60'
F
36
W. Jarvis
F
25
M. Mbeng
D
Last matches: Derry City
09.07.26
UEF
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
2
3
L
03.07.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
4
L
26.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
0
W
22.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
19.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
4
1
W
29.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
1
2
L
22.05.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
0
1
L
04.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
17.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
03.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
2
L
20.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
2
D
16.03.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
2
L
Last matches: Shelbourne
07.07.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Celtic
1
1
D
03.07.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
27.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
2
2
D
22.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
0
3
L
19.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
2
2
D
12.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
1
W
29.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Galway United
1
1
D
22.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Waterford
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
08.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
2
2
D
01.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
24.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
3
4
L
17.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
1
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
3
L
03.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
16.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
2
1
W
09.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
2
D
H2H: Derry City vs Shelbourne
25.05.26
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
17.04.26
H2H
Shelbourne
Derry City
1
2
W
13.03.26
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
2
L
19.09.25
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
1
D
20.06.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Derry City
0
1
W
02.05.25
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
2
0
W
14.02.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Derry City
3
1
L
01.11.24
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
1
L
14.09.24
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
2
0
W
05.08.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Derry City
0
0
D
06.05.24
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
1
D
01.04.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Derry City
0
0
D
20.10.23
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
30.06.23
H2H
Shelbourne
Derry City
1
1
D
02.06.23
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
Last matches: Derry City
03.07.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
4
L
26.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
0
W
12.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
4
1
W
22.05.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
20.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
2
D
13.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
2
L
27.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
4
2
W
20.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
0
1
L
13.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
2
2
D
06.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
2
1
W
H2H at home: Derry City
25.05.26
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
13.03.26
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
2
L
19.09.25
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
1
D
02.05.25
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
2
0
W
01.11.24
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
1
L
14.09.24
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
2
0
W
06.05.24
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
1
D
20.10.23
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
02.06.23
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
Last matches: Shelbourne
27.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
2
2
D
19.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
2
2
D
15.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
04.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
2
2
D
01.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
06.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
2
1
W
27.02.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
2
1
W
06.02.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Waterford
1
1
D
30.01.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Bray Wanderers
3
0
W
24.01.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Bohemians
2
2
D
18.12.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Celje
0
0
D
27.11.25
UEF
Shelbourne
AZ Alkmaar
0
2
L
23.10.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Shkendija
0
1
L
28.08.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Linfield
2
0
W
06.08.25
UEF
Shelbourne
HNK Rijeka
2
1
W
30.07.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Qarabag
0
1
L
16.07.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Linfield
1
1
D
H2H away: Shelbourne
25.05.26
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
13.03.26
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
2
W
19.09.25
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
1
D
02.05.25
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
2
0
L
01.11.24
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
1
W
14.09.24
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
2
0
L
06.05.24
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
1
D
20.10.23
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
02.06.23
H2H
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 5 5 40:22 18 50
W W D W L
2 25 12 7 6 40:27 13 43
W W W L L
3 24 12 6 6 39:20 19 42
D W L W W
4 24 9 8 7 38:36 2 35
L L L W W
5 24 8 10 6 35:35 0 34
W D L D W
6 25 6 11 8 32:31 1 29
L W D L W
7 23 7 6 10 32:39 -7 27
W L L W L
8 24 6 7 11 29:41 -12 25
W L L D L
9 24 4 9 11 33:47 -14 21
D W W L W
10 24 5 5 14 20:40 -20 20
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1