IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
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The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 60.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
60.9%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
79.4%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Derry City Win 39.1%
Draw 19.2%
Shamrock Rovers Win 41.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Derry City1.14
Shamrock Rovers1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Derry City Derry City
WWDLW
42 GF / 47 GA
Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers
WLDWL
65 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1
21
BTTS Yes
20
17
Over 2.5
18
3.91
Shots on Goal
4.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Derry City Derry City 34 matches
Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 37 matches
Derry City Statistic Shamrock Rovers
7 Wins 22
12 Draws 7
15 Losses 8
42 Goals For 65
47 Goals Against 37
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1
21 BTTS Yes 20
23 Over 1.5 28
17 Over 2.5 18
9 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 13
10 Failed To Score 6
3.91 Shots On Goal 4.35
11.09 Total Shots 11.21
5 Corners 3.82
45.8% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Shamrock Rovers. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 54 points while Derry City sit 6 on 33, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Derry City expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Shamrock Rovers in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Shamrock Rovers having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Derry City Analysis

From their first 28 matches, Derry City have collected 33 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 7 wins, 12 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 38:37 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through James Clarke (5 goals), Kévin Santos (3 goals), Barry Cotter (2 goals), with creative support from Adam O'Reilly (2 assists), Ben Doherty (2 assists), James Clarke (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Shamrock Rovers Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 54 points from 27 games, Shamrock Rovers bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 16 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 43:24, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through G. Burke (5 goals), J. McGovern (3 goals), Michael Noonan (3 goals), with creative support from J. McGovern (2 assists), Jack Byrne (2 assists), Dylan Watts (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Derry City won 3 times, Shamrock Rovers won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:18 from Derry City's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.8%)
Predicted formations: Derry City 4-3-3 / Shamrock Rovers 3-5-2
H2H summary: Derry City wins 3, draws 5, Shamrock Rovers wins 7
Last matches: Derry City
21.08.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
3
5
L
07.08.26
Pre
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
2
0
W
02.08.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
30.07.26
UEF
Derry City
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
23.07.26
UEF
Derry City
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
16.07.26
UEF
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
1
2
L
09.07.26
UEF
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
2
3
L
03.07.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
4
L
26.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
0
W
22.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
19.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
4
1
W
29.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
1
2
L
25.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
0
1
L
04.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
Last matches: Shamrock Rovers
20.08.26
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
KuPS
1
1
D
13.08.26
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1
5
L
07.08.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Dundalk
3
2
W
04.08.26
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
3
1
W
31.07.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Drogheda United
0
0
D
28.07.26
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
Ararat-Armenia
2
1
W
21.07.26
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
Ararat-Armenia
0
2
L
14.07.26
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
Floriana
5
1
W
07.07.26
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
Floriana
0
2
L
03.07.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Sligo Rovers
2
1
W
30.06.26
Fri
Shamrock Rovers
Hibernian
1
0
W
26.06.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Galway United
3
1
W
22.06.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
1
1
D
19.06.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
2
0
W
12.06.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Shelbourne
1
2
L
29.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
25.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Bohemians
2
1
W
22.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Sligo Rovers
1
2
L
15.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Dundalk
0
1
L
08.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Galway United
3
1
W
H2H: Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers
22.06.26
H2H
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
1
1
D
24.04.26
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
06.03.26
H2H
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
1
0
L
31.01.26
H2H
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
0
1
W
26.10.25
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
2
1
W
03.08.25
H2H
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
2
0
L
23.05.25
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
2
L
28.03.25
H2H
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
0
0
D
20.09.24
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.05.24
H2H
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
1
0
L
19.04.24
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
3
L
04.03.24
H2H
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
2
2
D
15.09.23
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
26.06.23
H2H
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
1
0
L
01.05.23
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
Last matches: Derry City
07.08.26
Pre
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
2
0
W
30.07.26
UEF
Derry City
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
16.07.26
UEF
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
1
2
L
03.07.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
4
L
26.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
0
W
12.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
4
1
W
25.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
20.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
2
D
13.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
2
L
27.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
4
2
W
20.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
0
1
L
13.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
2
2
D
06.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
2
1
W
H2H at home: Derry City
24.04.26
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
26.10.25
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
2
1
W
23.05.25
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
2
L
20.09.24
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
19.04.24
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
3
L
15.09.23
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
01.05.23
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
Last matches: Shamrock Rovers
13.08.26
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1
5
L
31.07.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Drogheda United
0
0
D
21.07.26
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
Ararat-Armenia
0
2
L
07.07.26
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
Floriana
0
2
L
03.07.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Sligo Rovers
2
1
W
19.06.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
2
0
W
12.06.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Shelbourne
1
2
L
25.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Bohemians
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Dundalk
0
1
L
08.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Galway United
3
1
W
24.04.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
03.04.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
1
1
D
16.03.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Drogheda United
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Sligo Rovers
2
0
W
09.03.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Shelbourne
2
2
D
27.02.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Bohemians
2
3
L
11.12.25
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
Breidablik
1
3
L
06.11.25
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
AEK Athens FC
1
1
D
02.10.25
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
Sparta Praha
1
4
L
H2H away: Shamrock Rovers
24.04.26
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
L
26.10.25
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
2
1
L
23.05.25
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
2
W
20.09.24
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
19.04.24
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
3
W
15.09.23
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
01.05.23
H2H
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
W

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 6 5 43:24 19 54
W D W W D
2 28 14 8 6 45:23 22 50
W W D D D
3 28 13 8 7 47:34 13 47
W L D W W
4 28 9 10 9 43:43 0 37
L L D D L
5 26 8 10 8 36:38 -2 34
L L W D L
6 28 7 12 9 38:37 1 33
L W D L W
7 27 8 9 10 35:41 -6 33
W D D D W
8 28 6 11 11 37:48 -11 29
D W W D D
9 28 6 10 12 31:45 -14 28
L D D D W
10 28 5 8 15 23:45 -22 23
D L D D L
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation