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IRELAND › PREMIER DIVISION
23.10.2026 18:45
The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Derry City vs Dundalk Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
69.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
69.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Derry City Win 42.4%
Draw 27%
Dundalk Win 30.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Derry City1.41
Dundalk1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Derry City Derry City
WWDLW
49 GF / 54 GA
Dundalk Dundalk
WLDWL
57 GF / 59 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
1.58
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
23
BTTS Yes
28
19
Over 2.5
23
4.19
Shots on Goal
5.09

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Derry City Derry City 39 matches
Dundalk Dundalk 36 matches
Derry City Statistic Dundalk
9 Wins 11
14 Draws 12
16 Losses 13
49 Goals For 57
54 Goals Against 59
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 1.58
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
23 BTTS Yes 28
26 Over 1.5 33
19 Over 2.5 23
11 Over 3.5 14
9 Clean Sheets 5
11 Failed To Score 3
4.19 Shots On Goal 5.09
12.35 Total Shots 15.62
5.19 Corners 5.74
49.6% Ball Possession 50.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Derry City's more proactive style and Dundalk's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Dundalk arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Dundalk. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Derry City expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Dundalk in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Dundalk having the stronger overall control.

Derry City Analysis

Derry City come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 41 points from 32 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 14 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 45:42 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Clarke (5 goals), M. Duffy (4 goals), A. O'Reilly (3 goals), with creative support from J. Clarke (3 assists), M. Duffy (3 assists), A. O'Reilly (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Dundalk Analysis

Dundalk sit 6 with 41 points after 33 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 11 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 50:55, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through D. Horgan (9 goals), Tyreke Wilson (4 goals), G. Arubi (4 goals), with creative support from D. Horgan (4 assists), Eoin Kenny (3 assists), Tyreke Wilson (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Derry City won 4 times, Dundalk won 3 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:17 from Derry City's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (73%)
Predicted formations: Derry City 4-1-4-1 / Dundalk 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Derry City wins 4, draws 8, Dundalk wins 3

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 19 8 7 54:35 19 65
L W W W L
2 34 18 8 8 60:41 19 62
W L W W W
3 33 17 8 8 53:27 26 59
L W W W L
4 34 11 13 10 49:47 2 46
W W D W L
5 34 10 12 12 51:56 -5 42
D L L L D
6 33 9 14 10 45:44 1 41
L W D W D
7 33 10 11 12 44:48 -4 41
W D L W L
8 34 9 10 15 41:54 -13 37
W L L W W
9 33 7 13 13 45:56 -11 34
L L D D W
10 34 5 9 20 26:60 -34 24
D L L L L
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation