IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
Referee: A. Patchell
Derry City
Match Timeline
Drogheda United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
26'
Leo Burney
Drogheda United
28'
C. Dummigan
Derry City
🟨
54'
Ryan Brennan
Drogheda United
🔄
60'
R. Brennan ↔ E. O'Brien
Drogheda United
🔄
65'
T. Oluwa ↔ J. Godden
Drogheda United
🔄
69'
J. McClean ↔ D. Markey
Derry City
🔄
72'
L. Burney ↔ J. Bolger
Drogheda United
🔄
72'
B. Kavanagh ↔ D. Kareem
Drogheda United
🔄
82'
↔ R. Slevin
Derry City
🟨
88'
James Bolger
Drogheda United
🟨
90+1'
Adam O'Reilly
Derry City
90'
A. O'Reilly · Assist: M. Duffy
Derry City

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.5%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Derry City Win 67.5%
Draw 10.9%
Drogheda United Win 21.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Derry City1.35
Drogheda United1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Derry City Derry City
WWDLW
29 GF / 30 GA
Drogheda United Drogheda United
WLDWL
32 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.16
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.63
16
BTTS Yes
17
13
Over 2.5
13
4.3
Shots on Goal
3.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Derry City Derry City 25 matches
Drogheda United Drogheda United 24 matches
Derry City Statistic Drogheda United
5 Wins 6
11 Draws 9
9 Losses 9
29 Goals For 32
30 Goals Against 39
1.16 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.63
16 BTTS Yes 17
16 Over 1.5 19
13 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 3
4.3 Shots On Goal 3.33
12.3 Total Shots 9.38
5.61 Corners 3.76
51.5% Ball Possession 38%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Derry City's more proactive style and Drogheda United's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Drogheda United. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Drogheda United arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Derry City Analysis

From their first 21 matches, Derry City have collected 25 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 10 draws, and 6 losses, while the 26:24 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on James Clarke (7 goals), M. Duffy (5 goals), D. Akinyemi (3 goals), with creative support from M. Duffy (2 assists), Ben Doherty (2 assists), Brandon Fleming (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Drogheda United Analysis

With 21 points from 20 games and a place of 8, Drogheda United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 25:34, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Doyle (9 goals), Conor Keeley (3 goals), W. Davis (3 goals), with creative support from B. Kavanagh (4 assists), K. Cruise (2 assists), Conor Keeley (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Derry City won 5 times, Drogheda United won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:17 from Derry City's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.1%)
Predicted formations: Derry City 4-2-3-1 / Drogheda United 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Derry City wins 5, draws 6, Drogheda United wins 4
Stats
Derry City Derry City
Drogheda United Drogheda United
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
0
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
4
7 Corner Kicks 5
12 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 1
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Goal 0
4 Shots off Goal 4
4 Blocked Shots 4
7 Shots insidebox 5
6 Shots outsidebox 3
0 Goalkeeper Saves 3
478 Total passes 352
388 Passes accurate 257
1.45 expected_goals 0.41
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Derry City
Formation
Drogheda United
E. Beach
E. Beach
B. Cotter
B. Cotter
C. Barr
C. Barr
P. McClean
P. McClean
B. Fleming
B. Fleming
C. Dummigan
C. Dummigan
M. Duffy
🎯
M. Duffy
A. O'Reilly
A. O'Reilly
J. Olayinka
J. Olayinka
J. McClean
J. McClean
L. Boyce
L. Boyce
L. Dennison
L. Dennison
E. Agbaje
E. Agbaje
C. Keeley
C. Keeley
L. Burney
L. Burney
C. Kane
C. Kane
S. Farrell
S. Farrell
R. Brennan
R. Brennan
J. Bucknor
J. Bucknor
B. Kavanagh
B. Kavanagh
T. Oluwa
T. Oluwa
M. Doyle
M. Doyle
Derry City 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
13
E. Beach
G
2
B. Cotter
D
22
C. Barr
D
3
P. McClean
D
19
B. Fleming
D
23
C. Dummigan
⚽ 28'
M
7
M. Duffy
🎯 90'
M
8
A. O'Reilly
⚽ 90' 🟨 90+1'
M
28
J. Olayinka
M
16
J. McClean
↓ 69'
M
27
L. Boyce
F
Substitutes
1
B. Maher
G
6
R. Slevin
↑ 82'
D
31
C. Downey
M
10
D. Markey
↑ 69'
M
21
K. Santos
M
35
L. Kelly
M
32
T. Doherty
F
34
J. O'Donnell
F
33
O. O'Brien
D
Drogheda United 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
L. Dennison
G
2
E. Agbaje
D
22
C. Keeley
D
5
L. Burney
↓ 72' 🟨 26'
D
3
C. Kane
D
17
S. Farrell
M
19
R. Brennan
↓ 60' 🟨 54'
M
7
J. Bucknor
M
10
B. Kavanagh
↓ 72'
M
11
T. Oluwa
↓ 65'
M
14
M. Doyle
F
Substitutes
44
F. Talley
G
32
D. Mare
F
6
J. Godden
↑ 65'
F
25
B. Bosakani
F
8
E. O'Brien
↑ 60'
M
18
J. Bolger
↑ 72' 🟨 88'
D
28
S. Brady
M
15
D. Kareem
↑ 72'
F
29
J. Brennan
M
Last matches: Derry City
09.07.26
UEF
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
2
3
L
03.07.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
4
L
22.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
19.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
4
1
W
29.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
1
2
L
25.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
0
1
L
04.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
17.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
03.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
2
L
20.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
2
D
16.03.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
2
L
Last matches: Drogheda United
10.07.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Dundalk
2
1
W
03.07.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Bohemians
0
2
L
19.06.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shelbourne
2
2
D
12.06.26
Pre
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
29.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Waterford
3
3
D
22.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Dundalk
1
1
D
18.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Waterford
1
2
L
15.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Bohemians
1
2
L
08.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Derry City
1
0
W
04.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shamrock Rovers
1
4
L
01.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
24.04.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shelbourne
4
3
W
17.04.26
Pre
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
1
3
L
06.04.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Galway United
2
3
L
03.04.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Bohemians
0
0
D
20.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Derry City
2
2
D
16.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shamrock Rovers
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
07.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers
1
2
L
27.02.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shelbourne
1
2
L
H2H: Derry City vs Drogheda United
26.06.26
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
0
W
08.05.26
H2H
Drogheda United
Derry City
1
0
L
20.03.26
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
2
D
26.09.25
H2H
Drogheda United
Derry City
1
1
D
16.08.25
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
1
1
D
27.06.25
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
3
0
W
16.05.25
H2H
Drogheda United
Derry City
1
1
D
11.04.25
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
1
3
L
10.11.24
H2H
Drogheda United
Derry City
2
0
L
27.09.24
H2H
Drogheda United
Derry City
2
1
L
28.06.24
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
5
1
W
12.04.24
H2H
Drogheda United
Derry City
2
2
D
16.02.24
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
1
W
06.10.23
H2H
Drogheda United
Derry City
0
0
D
13.08.23
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
3
0
W
Last matches: Derry City
03.07.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
4
L
12.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
4
1
W
25.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
20.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
2
D
13.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
2
L
27.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
4
2
W
20.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
0
1
L
13.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
2
2
D
06.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
2
1
W
H2H at home: Derry City
26.06.26
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
0
W
20.03.26
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
2
D
16.08.25
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
1
1
D
27.06.25
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
3
0
W
11.04.25
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
1
3
L
28.06.24
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
5
1
W
16.02.24
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
1
W
13.08.23
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
3
0
W
Last matches: Drogheda United
10.07.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Dundalk
2
1
W
12.06.26
Pre
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
18.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Waterford
1
2
L
15.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Bohemians
1
2
L
04.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shamrock Rovers
1
4
L
24.04.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shelbourne
4
3
W
20.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Derry City
2
2
D
13.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
07.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers
1
2
L
20.02.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Dundalk
1
1
D
06.02.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Galway United
1
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
Drogheda United
Bray Wanderers
3
1
W
H2H away: Drogheda United
26.06.26
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
0
L
20.03.26
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
2
D
16.08.25
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
1
1
D
27.06.25
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
3
0
L
11.04.25
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
1
3
W
28.06.24
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
5
1
L
16.02.24
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
1
L
13.08.23
H2H
Derry City
Drogheda United
3
0
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 5 5 40:22 18 50
W W D W L
2 25 12 7 6 40:27 13 43
W W W L L
3 24 12 6 6 39:20 19 42
D W L W W
4 24 9 8 7 38:36 2 35
L L L W W
5 24 8 10 6 35:35 0 34
W D L D W
6 25 6 11 8 32:31 1 29
L W D L W
7 23 7 6 10 32:39 -7 27
W L L W L
8 24 6 7 11 29:41 -12 25
W L L D L
9 24 4 9 11 33:47 -14 21
D W W L W
10 24 5 5 14 20:40 -20 20
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1