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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Derby
FT
2 - 3
Watford
Pride Park
Referee: Gavin Ward, England
Derby
Match Timeline
Watford
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
18'
C. Morris ↔ A. Weimann
Derby
🔄
35'
K. Baah ↔ N. Irankunda
Watford
⚽
36'
D. Sanderson
Derby
🟨
39'
Dion Sanderson
Derby
⚽
54'
S. Langas · Assist: J. Ward
Derby
🟨
58'
Ben Brereton Díaz
Derby
⚽
61'
L. Kjerrumgaard · Assist: J. Ngakia
Watford
🔄
65'
H. Kyprianou ↔ V. Semedo
Watford
🔄
65'
L. Kjerrumgaard ↔ M. Doumbia
Watford
🟨
68'
Edo Kayembe
Watford
🔄
70'
B. Brereton Diaz ↔ K. Jackson
Derby
🔄
71'
P. Agyemang ↔ L. Salvesen
Derby
🔄
81'
O. Maamma ↔ M. Sissoko
Watford
⚽
85'
E. Kayembe
Watford
⚽
88'
E. Kayembe · Assist: I. Louza
Watford
🔄
90+1'
S. Langas ↔ L. Thompson
Derby

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
Probability Distribution
Derby Win 0%
Draw 0%
Watford Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Derby1.28
Watford1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Derby Derby
WWDLW
20 GF / 19 GA
Watford Watford
WLDWL
19 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
10
BTTS Yes
10
6
Over 2.5
8
2.87
Shots on Goal
4.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Derby Derby 15 matches
Watford Watford 15 matches
Derby Statistic Watford
6 Wins 5
5 Draws 5
4 Losses 5
20 Goals For 19
19 Goals Against 18
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
10 BTTS Yes 10
10 Over 1.5 11
6 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 4
2.87 Shots On Goal 4.8
8.47 Total Shots 13.6
4.33 Corners 4.13
41.7% Ball Possession 50.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Derby won 5 times, Watford won 8 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:24 from Derby's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.36 goals per game.

Predicted formations: Derby 3-4-2-1 / Watford 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Derby wins 5, draws 1, Watford wins 8
Stats
Derby Derby
Watford Watford
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
7
9 Corner Kicks 3
8 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 0
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Goal 4
6 Shots off Goal 3
1 Blocked Shots 7
6 Shots insidebox 7
3 Shots outsidebox 7
1 Goalkeeper Saves 0
265 Total passes 470
173 Passes accurate 387
0.62 expected_goals 1.47
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Derby
Formation
Watford
J. Widell Zetterstrom
J. Widell Zetterstrom
S. Langas
⚽ ↓
S. Langas
D. Sanderson
⚽
D. Sanderson
M. Clarke
M. Clarke
J. Ward
🎯
J. Ward
E. Adams
E. Adams
B. Clark
B. Clark
C. Elder
C. Elder
B. Brereton Diaz
↓
B. Brereton Diaz
P. Agyemang
↓
P. Agyemang
C. Morris
↓
C. Morris
N. Baxter
N. Baxter
J. Ngakia
🎯
J. Ngakia
K. Keben
K. Keben
M. Pollock
M. Pollock
M. Bola
M. Bola
I. Louza
🎯
I. Louza
H. Kyprianou
↓
H. Kyprianou
K. Baah
↓
K. Baah
E. Kayembe
⚽ 2
E. Kayembe
O. Maamma
↓
O. Maamma
L. Kjerrumgaard
⚽ ↓
L. Kjerrumgaard
Derby 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
J. Widell Zetterstrom
G
6
S. Langas
⚽ 54' ↓ 90+1'
D
28
D. Sanderson
⚽ 36' 🟨 39'
D
5
M. Clarke
D
23
J. Ward
🎯 54'
M
32
E. Adams
M
42
B. Clark
M
20
C. Elder
M
25
B. Brereton Diaz
↓ 70' 🟨 58'
F
7
P. Agyemang
↓ 71'
F
9
C. Morris
↓ 18'
F
Substitutes
31
J. Vickers
G
3
C. Forsyth
D
4
D. Batth
D
11
C. Blackett-Taylor
F
14
A. Weimann
↑ 18'
F
15
L. Salvesen
↑ 71'
F
16
L. Thompson
↑ 90+1'
M
19
K. Jackson
↑ 70'
F
24
R. Nyambe
D
Watford 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
12
N. Baxter
G
2
J. Ngakia
🎯 61'
D
4
K. Keben
D
6
M. Pollock
D
16
M. Bola
D
10
I. Louza
🎯 88'
M
5
H. Kyprianou
↓ 65'
M
34
K. Baah
↓ 35'
M
39
E. Kayembe
⚽ 85' ⚽ 88' 🟨 68'
M
42
O. Maamma
↓ 81'
M
9
L. Kjerrumgaard
⚽ 61' ↓ 65'
F
Substitutes
41
A. Marriott
3
M. Alleyne
D
7
T. Ince
M
17
M. Sissoko
↑ 81'
M
18
V. Semedo
↑ 65'
F
20
M. Doumbia
↑ 65'
F
23
N. Mendy
M
25
J. Abankwah
D
66
N. Irankunda
↑ 35'
F
Last matches: Derby
15.08.26
Cha
Derby
Charlton
1
2
L
04.08.26
Fri
Derby
Rotherham
1
1
D
01.08.26
Fri
Derby
Burton Albion
0
1
L
31.07.26
Fri
Derby
Mansfield Town
3
1
W
28.07.26
Fri
Derby
Valencia
1
2
L
24.07.26
Fri
Derby
SC Freiburg
1
3
L
17.07.26
Fri
Derby
Alfreton Town
2
0
W
02.05.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Utd
1
2
L
25.04.26
Cha
Derby
QPR
3
2
W
21.04.26
Cha
Derby
Norwich
1
2
L
18.04.26
Cha
Derby
Oxford United
1
0
W
11.04.26
Cha
Derby
Southampton
1
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Derby
Stoke City
2
0
W
03.04.26
Cha
Derby
Coventry
2
3
L
21.03.26
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
W
16.03.26
Cha
Derby
Portsmouth
1
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Derby
Millwall
0
1
L
07.03.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
2
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Derby
Blackburn
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Derby
Hull City
2
4
L
Last matches: Watford
16.08.26
Cha
Watford
Southampton
2
1
W
29.07.26
Fri
Watford
Fiorentina
0
1
L
25.07.26
Fri
Watford
Hansa Rostock
3
0
W
14.07.26
Fri
Watford
Barnet
2
2
D
11.07.26
Fri
Watford
Boreham Wood
1
2
L
02.05.26
Cha
Watford
Coventry
0
4
L
25.04.26
Cha
Watford
Middlesbrough
1
5
L
21.04.26
Cha
Watford
West Brom
0
3
L
18.04.26
Cha
Watford
Sheffield Utd
0
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
Watford
Oxford United
0
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Watford
Charlton
1
1
D
03.04.26
Cha
Watford
QPR
1
2
L
21.03.26
Cha
Watford
Leicester
0
0
D
17.03.26
Cha
Watford
Wrexham
3
1
W
14.03.26
Cha
Watford
Stoke City
1
3
L
10.03.26
Cha
Watford
Sheffield Wednesday
1
1
D
27.02.26
Cha
Watford
Bristol City
2
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Watford
Ipswich
0
2
L
21.02.26
Cha
Watford
Derby
2
0
W
14.02.26
Cha
Watford
Preston
2
2
D
H2H: Derby vs Watford
21.02.26
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
0
L
22.11.25
H2H
Derby
Watford
2
3
L
18.01.25
H2H
Derby
Watford
0
2
L
24.08.24
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
1
L
19.02.21
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
1
L
16.10.20
H2H
Derby
Watford
0
1
L
03.04.15
H2H
Derby
Watford
2
2
D
22.11.14
H2H
Watford
Derby
1
2
W
26.04.14
H2H
Derby
Watford
4
2
W
19.10.13
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
3
W
23.02.13
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
1
L
01.09.12
H2H
Derby
Watford
5
1
W
10.03.12
H2H
Derby
Watford
1
2
L
13.08.11
H2H
Watford
Derby
0
1
W
Last matches: Derby
28.07.26
Fri
Derby
Valencia
1
2
L
02.05.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Utd
1
2
L
18.04.26
Cha
Derby
Oxford United
1
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Derby
Stoke City
2
0
W
21.03.26
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
W
07.03.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
2
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Derby
Blackburn
3
1
W
14.02.26
Cha
Derby
Swansea
2
0
W
07.02.26
Cha
Derby
Ipswich
1
2
L
23.01.26
Cha
Derby
West Brom
1
1
D
11.01.26
FA
Derby
Leeds
1
3
L
04.01.26
Cha
Derby
Wrexham
1
2
L
01.01.26
Cha
Derby
Middlesbrough
1
0
W
20.12.25
Cha
Derby
Portsmouth
1
1
D
10.12.25
Cha
Derby
Millwall
1
1
D
06.12.25
Cha
Derby
Leicester
1
3
L
04.11.25
Cha
Derby
Hull City
2
1
W
25.10.25
Cha
Derby
QPR
1
0
W
21.10.25
Cha
Derby
Norwich
1
0
W
04.10.25
Cha
Derby
Southampton
1
1
D
H2H at home: Derby
22.11.25
H2H
Derby
Watford
2
3
L
18.01.25
H2H
Derby
Watford
0
2
L
16.10.20
H2H
Derby
Watford
0
1
L
03.04.15
H2H
Derby
Watford
2
2
D
26.04.14
H2H
Derby
Watford
4
2
W
01.09.12
H2H
Derby
Watford
5
1
W
10.03.12
H2H
Derby
Watford
1
2
L
Last matches: Watford
14.07.26
Fri
Watford
Barnet
2
2
D
11.07.26
Fri
Watford
Boreham Wood
1
2
L
25.04.26
Cha
Watford
Middlesbrough
1
5
L
21.04.26
Cha
Watford
West Brom
0
3
L
11.04.26
Cha
Watford
Oxford United
0
2
L
03.04.26
Cha
Watford
QPR
1
2
L
14.03.26
Cha
Watford
Stoke City
1
3
L
10.03.26
Cha
Watford
Sheffield Wednesday
1
1
D
27.02.26
Cha
Watford
Bristol City
2
1
W
14.02.26
Cha
Watford
Preston
2
2
D
07.02.26
Cha
Watford
Southampton
0
1
L
03.02.26
Cha
Watford
Hull City
0
0
D
24.01.26
Cha
Watford
Blackburn
1
1
D
10.01.26
FA
Watford
Bristol City
1
5
L
29.12.25
Cha
Watford
Norwich
1
0
W
26.12.25
Cha
Watford
Leicester
2
1
W
13.12.25
Cha
Watford
Wrexham
2
2
D
01.12.25
Cha
Watford
Birmingham
1
2
L
04.11.25
Cha
Watford
Ipswich
1
1
D
25.10.25
Cha
Watford
Coventry
1
3
L
H2H away: Watford
22.11.25
H2H
Derby
Watford
2
3
W
18.01.25
H2H
Derby
Watford
0
2
W
16.10.20
H2H
Derby
Watford
0
1
W
03.04.15
H2H
Derby
Watford
2
2
D
26.04.14
H2H
Derby
Watford
4
2
L
01.09.12
H2H
Derby
Watford
5
1
L
10.03.12
H2H
Derby
Watford
1
2
W

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Coventry
46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2
Ipswich
46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3
Millwall
46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4
Southampton
46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5
Middlesbrough
46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6
Hull City
46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7
Wrexham
46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8
Derby Home
46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9
Norwich
46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10
Birmingham
46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11
Swansea
46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12
Bristol City
46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13
Sheffield Utd
46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14
Preston
46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15
QPR
46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16
Watford Away
46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17
Stoke City
46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18
Portsmouth
46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19
Charlton
46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20
Blackburn
46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21
West Brom
46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22
Oxford United
46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23
Leicester
46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24
Sheffield Wednesday
46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
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