29.08.2026 17:45
Estadio Guillermo Laza
Referee: Nazareno Arasa, Argentina
Deportivo Riestra
Match Timeline
Velez Sarsfield
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
31'
Facundo Miño
Deportivo Riestra
🟨
37'
Lucas Robertone
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
46'
A. Alonso ↔ T. Gonzalez
Deportivo Riestra
54'
T. Gonzalez · Assist: M. Bracamonte
Deportivo Riestra
🔄
60'
B. Sanchez ↔ N. Watson
Deportivo Riestra
🟨
67'
Nicolás Benegas
Deportivo Riestra
🔄
69'
L. Robertone ↔ L. Feler
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
69'
A. Veron ↔ T. Aguirre
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
72'
N. Benegas ↔ P. Monje
Deportivo Riestra
76'
F. Mino
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
81'
J. Goitia ↔ A. Diaz
Deportivo Riestra
VAR
88'
Dilan Godoy
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
90+6'
↔ L. Piola
Velez Sarsfield

Deportivo Riestra vs Velez Sarsfield Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 48%
Odds 2.92
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 2.50
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.9%
Odds 3.44
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
48%
2.92
BTTS Yes
58.8%
2.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.9%
3.44
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
67.7%
1.58
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Riestra Win 37.9%
Draw 14.2%
Velez Sarsfield Win 48%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Riestra0.64
Velez Sarsfield1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Riestra Deportivo Riestra
WWDLW
14 GF / 19 GA
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield
WLDWL
33 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
0.56
Average Goals Scored
1.32
0.76
Average Goals Conceded
0.76
6
BTTS Yes
13
2
Over 2.5
7
3.41
Shots on Goal
4.09

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Riestra Deportivo Riestra 25 matches
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 25 matches
Deportivo Riestra Statistic Velez Sarsfield
4 Wins 12
11 Draws 10
10 Losses 3
14 Goals For 33
19 Goals Against 19
0.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
0.76 Avg Goals Conceded 0.76
6 BTTS Yes 13
12 Over 1.5 15
2 Over 2.5 7
0 Over 3.5 5
10 Clean Sheets 10
15 Failed To Score 4
3.41 Shots On Goal 4.09
10.18 Total Shots 11.74
4 Corners 4.35
36.6% Ball Possession 53.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Velez Sarsfield's more proactive style and Deportivo Riestra's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Velez Sarsfield. Deportivo Riestra have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Riestra expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Velez Sarsfield in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Velez Sarsfield having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Velez Sarsfield carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 28 points while Deportivo Riestra sit 15 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Deportivo Riestra Analysis

Deportivo Riestra approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 11 points from 16 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 5:12 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Antony Alonso (3 goals), Mariano Bracamonte (1 goals), Jonathan Herrera (1 goals), with creative support from Antony Alonso (1 assists), Nicolás Sansotre (1 assists), Nicolas Watson (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Velez Sarsfield Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 28 points from 16 games, Velez Sarsfield bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 7 wins, 7 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 18:12, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Florián Monzón (3 goals), Manuel Lanzini (2 goals), Diego Valdés (1 goals), with creative support from Diego Valdés (2 assists), Matías Pellegrini (2 assists), Thiago Aguirre (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Riestra won 1 times, Velez Sarsfield won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:5 from Deportivo Riestra's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.9%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Riestra 5-4-1 / Velez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Deportivo Riestra wins 1, draws 3, Velez Sarsfield wins 1

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L D L W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D W D D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W L D D L
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D W L D W
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W L D L W
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
D W L D W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L W W W L
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
L W D W W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W L W W D
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D W W W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D L W D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D D D W W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
D D D L W
Knockout Phase