ARGENTINA PRIMERA B METROPOLITANA
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Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 48.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
48.8%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Merlo Win 36%
Draw 15.2%
Sportivo Italiano Win 48.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Merlo1.02
Sportivo Italiano1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Merlo Deportivo Merlo
WWDLW
33 GF / 41 GA
Sportivo Italiano Sportivo Italiano
WLDWL
28 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
0.79
17
BTTS Yes
14
13
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Merlo Deportivo Merlo 28 matches
Sportivo Italiano Sportivo Italiano 28 matches
Deportivo Merlo Statistic Sportivo Italiano
9 Wins 12
10 Draws 10
9 Losses 6
33 Goals For 28
41 Goals Against 22
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 0.79
17 BTTS Yes 14
22 Over 1.5 16
13 Over 2.5 10
8 Over 3.5 2
7 Clean Sheets 11
7 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Sportivo Italiano's more proactive style and Deportivo Merlo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Sportivo Italiano having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sportivo Italiano.

Deportivo Merlo Analysis

Deportivo Merlo are currently 11 in the standings with 36 points from 27 matches. The record of 9 wins, 9 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 32:40 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sportivo Italiano Analysis

From their first 27 matches, Sportivo Italiano have collected 45 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 12 wins, 9 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 27:21 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Merlo won 1 times, Sportivo Italiano won 7 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:17 from Deportivo Merlo's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.8%)
H2H summary: Deportivo Merlo wins 1, draws 7, Sportivo Italiano wins 7
Last matches: Deportivo Merlo
02.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
San Martín Burzaco
1
1
D
25.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Villa San Carlos
1
2
L
18.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Liniers
1
1
D
14.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Real Pilar
3
2
W
10.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
UAI Urquiza
0
0
D
04.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Villa Dalmine
1
2
L
27.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Excursionistas
0
5
L
21.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Arsenal Sarandi
2
4
L
14.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Argentino de Merlo
2
2
D
05.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Talleres Remedios
0
2
L
02.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Laferrere
2
1
W
26.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Liniers
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Brown DE Adrogue
1
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Armenio
3
2
W
09.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Flandria
0
2
L
02.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Argentino Quilmes
1
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Defensores Unidos
1
1
D
21.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Comunicaciones
2
0
W
16.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Dock Sud
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Ituzaingó
3
2
W
Last matches: Sportivo Italiano
01.08.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Camioneros
1
1
D
25.07.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Ituzaingó
0
0
D
18.07.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
San Martín Burzaco
2
1
W
14.07.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Villa San Carlos
1
0
W
10.07.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Liniers
1
0
W
05.07.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Real Pilar
1
1
D
28.06.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
UAI Urquiza
0
0
D
20.06.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Villa Dalmine
1
2
L
13.06.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Excursionistas
0
1
L
06.06.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Arsenal Sarandi
3
1
W
31.05.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Argentino de Merlo
0
2
L
27.05.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
San Martín Burzaco
1
2
L
23.05.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Talleres Remedios
1
0
W
18.05.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Laferrere
1
1
D
09.05.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Brown DE Adrogue
0
0
D
02.05.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Armenio
1
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Flandria
0
0
D
18.04.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Argentino Quilmes
2
1
W
14.04.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Defensores Unidos
0
2
L
11.04.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Comunicaciones
1
1
D
H2H: Deportivo Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano
29.03.26
H2H
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Merlo
2
1
L
20.09.25
H2H
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Merlo
1
0
L
03.05.25
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
1
2
L
20.07.24
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
1
1
D
02.03.24
H2H
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Merlo
1
0
L
04.02.20
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
1
1
D
04.09.19
H2H
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Merlo
2
0
L
24.03.19
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
0
1
L
16.10.18
H2H
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Merlo
0
0
D
22.04.18
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
1
1
D
27.11.17
H2H
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Merlo
1
0
L
23.04.17
H2H
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Merlo
1
1
D
08.10.16
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
2
1
W
12.07.15
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
1
1
D
01.03.15
H2H
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Merlo
1
1
D
Last matches: Deportivo Merlo
25.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Villa San Carlos
1
2
L
14.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Real Pilar
3
2
W
04.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Villa Dalmine
1
2
L
14.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Argentino de Merlo
2
2
D
02.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Laferrere
2
1
W
26.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Liniers
0
0
D
16.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Armenio
3
2
W
02.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Argentino Quilmes
1
0
W
21.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Comunicaciones
2
0
W
11.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Ituzaingó
3
2
W
05.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Camioneros
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
San Martín Burzaco
0
4
L
27.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
UAI Urquiza
0
0
D
15.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Excursionistas
1
2
L
09.11.25
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Sacachispas
0
1
L
12.10.25
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Villa San Carlos
1
1
D
29.09.25
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
UAI Urquiza
1
2
L
16.09.25
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Midland
0
0
D
30.08.25
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Acassuso
3
1
W
19.08.25
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Argentino de Merlo
2
2
D
H2H at home: Deportivo Merlo
03.05.25
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
1
2
L
20.07.24
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
1
1
D
04.02.20
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
1
1
D
24.03.19
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
0
1
L
22.04.18
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
1
1
D
08.10.16
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
2
1
W
12.07.15
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
1
1
D
Last matches: Sportivo Italiano
25.07.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Ituzaingó
0
0
D
18.07.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
San Martín Burzaco
2
1
W
10.07.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Liniers
1
0
W
28.06.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
UAI Urquiza
0
0
D
20.06.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Villa Dalmine
1
2
L
06.06.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Arsenal Sarandi
3
1
W
23.05.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Talleres Remedios
1
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Brown DE Adrogue
0
0
D
25.04.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Flandria
0
0
D
14.04.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Defensores Unidos
0
2
L
05.04.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Dock Sud
3
1
W
22.03.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Camioneros
1
2
L
03.03.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Villa San Carlos
1
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Real Pilar
2
1
W
01.12.25
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Armenio
1
1
D
15.11.25
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Fénix
3
1
W
02.11.25
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Liniers
3
1
W
12.10.25
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Armenio
2
3
L
26.09.25
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Sacachispas
1
0
W
15.09.25
Pri
Sportivo Italiano
Dock Sud
0
0
D
H2H away: Sportivo Italiano
03.05.25
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
1
2
W
20.07.24
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
1
1
D
04.02.20
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
1
1
D
24.03.19
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
0
1
W
22.04.18
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
1
1
D
08.10.16
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
2
1
L
12.07.15
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
1
1
D

Standings

Prim B Metro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 15 8 5 40:19 21 53
W D D W L
2 28 15 8 5 31:13 18 53
D W W L D
3 28 14 10 4 38:20 18 52
D D W L W
4 28 14 10 4 32:15 17 52
W D D D W
5 28 14 9 5 34:18 16 51
D W W W L
6 28 12 10 6 28:22 6 46
D D W W W
7 28 12 7 9 33:31 2 43
W W L L W
8 28 11 8 9 32:33 -1 41
W L W W D
9 28 10 9 9 31:28 3 39
D L W D W
10 28 10 8 10 31:33 -2 38
L D D W D
11 28 9 10 9 33:41 -8 37
D L D W D
12 28 8 12 8 27:26 1 36
D L L W D
13 28 9 8 11 27:28 -1 35
L L D L W
14 28 7 12 9 28:26 2 33
D D W D L
15 28 7 12 9 25:28 -3 33
D D D W L
16 28 6 11 11 18:27 -9 29
D D D L L
17 28 6 10 12 18:30 -12 28
D W L L D
18 28 7 6 15 22:35 -13 27
L D L W D
19 28 5 11 12 27:35 -8 26
D W L L D
20 28 5 11 12 22:32 -10 26
L D D L L
21 28 3 17 8 13:23 -10 26
D D L D D
22 28 1 9 18 18:45 -27 12
D D L L D
Promotion - Primera Nacional
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Primera C (Apertura)