URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 62.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
62.2%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Maldonado Win 43.9%
Draw 18.3%
Wanderers Win 37.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Maldonado1.49
Wanderers1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado
WWDLW
40 GF / 24 GA
Wanderers Wanderers
WLDWL
35 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
1.3
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
14
BTTS Yes
14
12
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 25 matches
Wanderers Wanderers 27 matches
Deportivo Maldonado Statistic Wanderers
13 Wins 12
7 Draws 6
5 Losses 9
40 Goals For 35
24 Goals Against 36
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
14 BTTS Yes 14
18 Over 1.5 20
12 Over 2.5 14
6 Over 3.5 5
10 Clean Sheets 11
4 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Deportivo Maldonado's more proactive style and Wanderers's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Wanderers. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Maldonado expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Wanderers in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Wanderers having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Deportivo Maldonado Analysis

Deportivo Maldonado arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 46 points after 25 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, while the 40:24 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Wanderers Analysis

Wanderers approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 39 points after 25 outings. With 11 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats plus a goal balance of 31:31, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the split of - wins, - draws, and - losses supports the view of an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Maldonado won 4 times, Wanderers won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:13 from Deportivo Maldonado's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.86 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.7%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Maldonado 4-3-1-2 / Wanderers 4-3-3
H2H summary: Deportivo Maldonado wins 4, draws 6, Wanderers wins 4
Last matches: Deportivo Maldonado
22.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Penarol
0
0
D
16.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
2
0
W
10.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Racing Montevideo
2
2
D
01.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
0
0
D
18.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
0
1
L
10.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Albion FC
1
1
D
06.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
4
2
W
31.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
3
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
1
D
18.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
3
1
W
11.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Boston River
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
1
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Albion FC
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
4
2
W
05.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Liverpool Montevideo
2
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Central Espanol
1
2
L
24.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
1
0
W
20.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
Last matches: Wanderers
28.08.26
Pri
Wanderers
Central Espanol
3
0
W
23.08.26
Pri
Wanderers
Atletico Torque
1
5
L
15.08.26
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
09.08.26
Pri
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
05.08.26
Pri
Wanderers
Penarol
1
5
L
31.07.26
Pri
Wanderers
Atletico Torque
2
0
W
17.07.26
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
2
1
W
11.07.26
Pri
Wanderers
Progreso
2
0
W
05.06.26
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
0
0
D
31.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
5
2
W
24.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
0
0
D
08.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
1
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Penarol
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Progreso
1
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Boston River
1
4
L
28.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro
3
0
W
25.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
1
2
L
H2H: Deportivo Maldonado vs Wanderers
24.05.26
H2H
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
06.03.26
H2H
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
20.09.24
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
3
L
27.07.24
H2H
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
1
0
L
11.03.24
H2H
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
15.11.23
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
3
0
W
07.04.23
H2H
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
W
13.09.22
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
0
W
09.07.22
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
2
L
11.04.22
H2H
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
W
20.09.21
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
3
L
23.05.21
H2H
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
06.02.21
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
1
D
15.08.20
H2H
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
2
2
D
Last matches: Deportivo Maldonado
22.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Penarol
0
0
D
10.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Racing Montevideo
2
2
D
01.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
0
0
D
10.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Albion FC
1
1
D
31.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
3
0
W
18.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
3
1
W
11.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Boston River
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Albion FC
1
2
L
11.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
4
2
W
24.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
02.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
2
1
W
14.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
2
0
W
22.11.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Atenas
0
0
D
08.11.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Colón
1
1
D
26.10.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
La Luz
1
1
D
11.10.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Colón
0
2
L
05.10.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Artigas
6
1
W
21.09.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Uruguay Montevideo
3
0
W
07.09.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Fenix
0
2
L
H2H at home: Deportivo Maldonado
20.09.24
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
3
L
15.11.23
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
3
0
W
13.09.22
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
0
W
09.07.22
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
2
L
20.09.21
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
3
L
06.02.21
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
1
D
Last matches: Wanderers
23.08.26
Pri
Wanderers
Atletico Torque
1
5
L
09.08.26
Pri
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
05.08.26
Pri
Wanderers
Penarol
1
5
L
31.07.26
Pri
Wanderers
Atletico Torque
2
0
W
17.07.26
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
2
1
W
31.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
5
2
W
17.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
0
0
D
02.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
1
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Progreso
1
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Boston River
1
4
L
25.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
1
2
L
13.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Central Espanol
1
0
W
13.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
2
1
W
19.10.25
Pri
Wanderers
Penarol
0
3
L
12.10.25
Pri
Wanderers
Atletico Torque
2
2
D
06.10.25
Pri
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
21.09.25
Pri
Wanderers
Progreso
0
2
L
14.09.25
Pri
Wanderers
Miramar
0
3
L
01.09.25
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
H2H away: Wanderers
20.09.24
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
3
W
15.11.23
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
3
0
L
13.09.22
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
0
L
09.07.22
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
2
W
20.09.21
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
3
W
06.02.21
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
1
D

Standings

Primera: Promedios
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 61 38 11 12 103:54 49 125
D W W W D
2 62 36 12 14 112:66 46 117
W L L W L
3 25 13 7 5 40:24 16 46
D W D D L
4 62 28 19 15 85:60 25 103
W W W D W
5 62 26 21 15 70:57 13 99
D W D W L
6 61 25 15 21 93:79 14 90
W W L W W
7 62 24 17 21 62:64 -2 89
D L L W L
8 62 25 13 24 72:74 -2 88
W L D D W
9 26 10 6 10 29:32 -3 36
L L L W D
10 25 9 7 9 35:30 5 34
L L L D L
11 62 22 18 22 74:72 2 84
W D W L L
12 62 20 20 22 67:68 -1 80
D D D L W
13 63 18 19 26 59:78 -19 73
W L D W W
14 62 19 15 28 50:81 -31 71
L W W L W
15 62 14 25 23 63:72 -9 67
D D L D L
16 62 14 13 35 56:98 -42 55
L L L L W
Relegation - Segunda Division