05.09.2026 21:00
Estadio Domingo Burgueno Miguel
Referee: H. Heras
Deportivo Maldonado
Match Timeline
Wanderers
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
20'
S. Ramirez
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
36'
J. Urretaviscaya ↔ G. Freitas
Wanderers
🟨
47'
Maximiliano González
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
58'
Gonzalo Freitas
Wanderers
65'
C. Tabo
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
66'
G. Larrazabal ↔ C. Mayada
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
66'
S. Ramirez ↔ G. Sosa
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
71'
N. Queiroz ↔ R. Rivero
Wanderers
🔄
71'
T. Hernandez ↔ F. Labandeira
Wanderers
🔄
77'
C. Tabo ↔ L. Ibanez
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
77'
S. Cartagena ↔ E. Mozzone
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
79'
Alan Garcia
Wanderers
🔄
81'
S. Benitez ↔ S. Oriol
Wanderers
🔄
81'
J. Luna ↔ S. Ormeno
Wanderers
🟨
84'
Gonzalo Freitas
Wanderers
🟥
84'
Gonzalo Freitas
Wanderers
🔄
85'
M. Gonzalez ↔ L. Nunez
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
90+1'
Hernán Menosse
Deportivo Maldonado

Deportivo Maldonado vs Wanderers Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 62.2%
Odds 1.25
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.14
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
62.2%
1.25
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.14
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
2.61
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Maldonado Win 43.9%
Draw 18.3%
Wanderers Win 37.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Maldonado1.46
Wanderers1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado
WWDLW
40 GF / 26 GA
Wanderers Wanderers
WLDWL
35 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
1.3
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
14
BTTS Yes
14
12
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 26 matches
Wanderers Wanderers 27 matches
Deportivo Maldonado Statistic Wanderers
13 Wins 12
7 Draws 6
6 Losses 9
40 Goals For 35
26 Goals Against 36
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
14 BTTS Yes 14
19 Over 1.5 20
12 Over 2.5 14
6 Over 3.5 5
10 Clean Sheets 11
5 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Deportivo Maldonado's more proactive style and Wanderers's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Wanderers. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Maldonado expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Wanderers in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Wanderers having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Deportivo Maldonado Analysis

Deportivo Maldonado arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 46 points after 25 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, while the 40:24 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Wanderers Analysis

Wanderers approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 39 points after 25 outings. With 11 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats plus a goal balance of 31:31, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the split of - wins, - draws, and - losses supports the view of an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Maldonado won 4 times, Wanderers won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:13 from Deportivo Maldonado's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.86 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.7%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Maldonado 4-3-1-2 / Wanderers 4-3-3
H2H summary: Deportivo Maldonado wins 4, draws 6, Wanderers wins 4

Standings

Primera: Promedios
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 65 41 11 13 112:57 55 134
W W W L D
2 65 37 14 14 116:69 47 122
D D W W L
3 28 14 7 7 42:27 15 49
L W L D W
4 65 29 20 16 88:64 24 107
L W D W W
5 65 28 21 16 74:60 14 105
W L W D W
6 64 28 15 21 101:82 19 99
W W W W W
7 65 26 15 24 77:77 0 93
D D W W L
8 65 25 18 22 65:68 -3 93
W D L D L
9 28 10 8 10 30:33 -3 38
D D L L L
10 66 22 19 25 78:79 -1 85
L L L D W
11 65 20 22 23 69:71 -2 82
D L D D D
12 28 9 7 12 36:35 1 34
L L L L L
13 66 21 16 29 56:85 -29 78
L W W D L
14 65 18 20 27 60:81 -21 74
D L W L D
15 65 14 26 25 64:78 -14 68
D L L D D
16 66 17 13 36 61:102 -41 64
W L W W L
Relegation - Segunda Division