URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Referee: A. Fernandez

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.7%
Odds 2.77
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.52
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.7%
2.77
BTTS No
55%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.52
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
1.91
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33
Correct Score 2-0
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Maldonado Win 63.7%
Draw 11.1%
Racing Montevideo Win 25.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Maldonado1.29
Racing Montevideo1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado
WWDLW
36 GF / 22 GA
Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo
WLDWL
27 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
1.23
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.77
13
BTTS Yes
11
11
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 22 matches
Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo 22 matches
Deportivo Maldonado Statistic Racing Montevideo
12 Wins 11
5 Draws 8
5 Losses 3
36 Goals For 27
22 Goals Against 17
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 1.23
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.77
13 BTTS Yes 11
16 Over 1.5 13
11 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 9
3 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Racing Montevideo. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Maldonado expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Racing Montevideo in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Racing Montevideo having the stronger overall control.

Deportivo Maldonado Analysis

Placed 2 with 41 points from 22 outings, Deportivo Maldonado continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 12 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 36:22 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Racing Montevideo Analysis

Racing Montevideo come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 41 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 8 draws, and 3 losses, while the 27:17 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Maldonado won 2 times, Racing Montevideo won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:8 from Deportivo Maldonado's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.9%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Maldonado 4-3-1-2 / Racing Montevideo 4-4-2
H2H summary: Deportivo Maldonado wins 2, draws 3, Racing Montevideo wins 2
Last matches: Deportivo Maldonado
01.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
0
0
D
18.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
0
1
L
10.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Albion FC
1
1
D
06.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
4
2
W
31.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
3
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
1
D
18.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
3
1
W
11.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Boston River
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
1
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Albion FC
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
4
2
W
05.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Liverpool Montevideo
2
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Central Espanol
1
2
L
24.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
1
0
W
20.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
0
0
D
02.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
2
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Penarol
1
2
L
Last matches: Racing Montevideo
02.08.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
26.07.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
0
1
L
12.07.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1
1
D
06.06.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Central Espanol
1
1
D
30.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Central Espanol
0
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
26.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Wanderers
2
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Juventud
2
1
W
29.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
2
1
W
26.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Albion FC
3
1
W
21.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
4
0
W
H2H: Deportivo Maldonado vs Racing Montevideo
08.02.26
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
W
12.11.24
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
12.07.24
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
11.05.24
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
W
27.08.23
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
22.07.23
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
2
0
L
10.02.23
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
Last matches: Deportivo Maldonado
01.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
0
0
D
10.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Albion FC
1
1
D
31.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
3
0
W
18.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
3
1
W
11.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Boston River
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Albion FC
1
2
L
11.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
4
2
W
24.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
02.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
2
1
W
14.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
2
0
W
22.11.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Atenas
0
0
D
08.11.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Colón
1
1
D
26.10.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
La Luz
1
1
D
11.10.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Colón
0
2
L
05.10.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Artigas
6
1
W
21.09.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Uruguay Montevideo
3
0
W
07.09.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Fenix
0
2
L
23.08.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Atenas
0
1
L
15.08.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Tacuarembo
2
0
W
H2H at home: Deportivo Maldonado
12.11.24
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
12.07.24
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
10.02.23
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
Last matches: Racing Montevideo
26.07.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
0
1
L
06.06.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Central Espanol
1
1
D
22.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
09.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Central Espanol
0
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Wanderers
2
1
W
29.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
2
1
W
14.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Albion FC
3
1
W
14.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
1
D
07.11.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Miramar
2
0
W
25.10.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
2
2
D
11.10.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
2
2
D
21.09.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
CA River Plate
3
2
W
07.09.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
0
3
L
24.08.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Atletico Torque
0
4
L
10.08.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
2
1
W
25.09.22
Seg
Racing Montevideo
Villa Espanola
2
1
W
10.09.22
Seg
Racing Montevideo
Central Espanol
2
1
W
28.08.22
Seg
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
0
0
D
H2H away: Racing Montevideo
12.11.24
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Racing Montevideo
0
1
W
12.07.24
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
10.02.23
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.81
Draw 2.98
Home 2.77
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.61
Draw 1.99
Home 3.56
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.10
Over 1.5 1.48
Over 1.75 1.62
Over 2.0 1.87
Over 2.25 2.21
Over 2.5 2.54
Over 3.5 4.92
Under 0.5 6.82
Under 1.5 2.64
Under 1.75 2.30
Under 2.0 1.95
Under 2.25 1.67
Under 2.5 1.52
Under 3.5 1.17
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.80
Draw 3.10
Home 2.45
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 1.95
Home 3.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 2.20
Home 2.88
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.10
Over 1.5 1.50
Over 2.5 2.50
Over 3.5 5.00
Over 4.5 11.00
Over 5.5 26.00
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 0.5 7.00
Under 1.5 2.50
Under 2.5 1.50
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.69
Draw 2.85
Home 2.58
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 1.83
Home 3.42
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.15
Draw 2.15
Home 2.99
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 0.75 1.07
Over 1.0 1.09
Over 1.25 1.26
Over 1.5 1.46
Over 1.75 1.56
Over 2.0 1.79
Over 2.25 2.08
Over 2.5 2.41
Over 2.75 2.88
Over 3.0 3.88
Over 3.25 4.30
Over 3.5 4.75
Over 3.75 6.15
Over 4.0 8.00
Over 4.5 10.00
Over 5.5 29.00
Over 6.5 50.00
Under 0.5 6.70
Under 0.75 5.95
Under 1.0 5.25
Under 1.25 3.20
Under 1.5 2.52
Under 1.75 2.15
Under 2.0 1.83
Under 2.25 1.60
Under 2.5 1.45
Under 2.75 1.32
Under 3.0 1.18
Under 3.25 1.14
Under 3.5 1.12
Under 3.75 1.06
Under 4.0 1.05
Under 4.5 1.02
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.85
Draw 3.05
Home 2.48
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 2.05
Home 3.10
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 2.32
Home 2.85
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.38
Over 2.0 1.65
Over 2.25 1.93
Over 2.5 2.18
Over 2.75 2.60
Over 3.0 3.30
Over 3.25 3.65
Over 3.5 3.95
Over 3.75 4.90
Over 4.0 7.00
Under 1.5 2.70
Under 2.0 2.05
Under 2.25 1.75
Under 2.5 1.58
Under 2.75 1.43
Under 3.0 1.28
Under 3.25 1.23
Under 3.5 1.19
Under 3.75 1.12
Under 4.0 1.06

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 13 4 5 35:19 16 43
W W D W L
2 22 12 5 5 36:22 14 41
D L D W W
3 22 11 8 3 27:17 10 41
W L D D D
4 23 11 5 7 29:25 4 38
W W W W D
5 23 10 6 7 28:26 2 36
W D L D D
6 22 10 5 7 33:27 6 35
L W W L W
7 22 11 2 9 34:29 5 35
W L D W L
8 23 9 7 7 32:25 7 34
L D L D W
9 23 8 8 7 26:23 3 32
W D W L D
10 23 8 5 10 24:25 -1 29
D L W D D
11 23 6 9 8 19:21 -2 27
L W L D D
12 23 6 6 11 26:34 -8 24
D D W L D
13 23 4 10 9 22:31 -9 22
L D L D D
14 22 6 4 12 19:30 -11 22
L L D D L
15 23 6 4 13 15:34 -19 22
W L W W L
16 23 4 4 15 18:35 -17 16
L L W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)