11.05.2026 20:00
Estadio Domingo Burgueno Miguel
Referee: G. Tejera
Deportivo Maldonado
Match Timeline
Boston River
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
R. Cesar
Deportivo Maldonado
12'
M. Rivero
Boston River
🔄
21'
R. Cesar ↔ G. Lopez
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
46'
J. S. O'Neill Lopez ↔ F. Barrios
Boston River
49'
G. Lopez
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
54'
Santiago Ramírez
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
58'
Y. Gonzalez ↔ G. Reyna
Boston River
🔄
76'
J. Ramos ↔ S. Tormo
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
76'
S. Ramirez ↔ S. Gonzalez
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
76'
M. Espindola ↔ A. Vila
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
79'
Federico Dafonte
Boston River
🔄
79'
F. Munoa ↔ M. Hornos
Boston River
🔄
85'
L. Suhr ↔ G. Ramirez
Boston River
🔄
85'
F. Dafonte ↔ A. Gonzalez
Boston River
🔄
87'
F. Tealde ↔ J. Fernandez
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
88'
Guillermo López
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
90+2'
Marcelo Hornos
Boston River

Deportivo Maldonado vs Boston River Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 76.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
76.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Maldonado Win 59.4%
Draw 0%
Boston River Win 40.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Maldonado1.46
Boston River0.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado
WWDLW
22 GF / 15 GA
Boston River Boston River
WLDWL
13 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
0.93
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
8
BTTS Yes
6
7
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 14 matches
Boston River Boston River 14 matches
Deportivo Maldonado Statistic Boston River
8 Wins 5
2 Draws 2
4 Losses 7
22 Goals For 13
15 Goals Against 18
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 0.93
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
8 BTTS Yes 6
10 Over 1.5 9
7 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 2
6 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Deportivo Maldonado's more proactive style and Boston River's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Maldonado expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Boston River in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Boston River having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Deportivo Maldonado arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 26 points compared to Boston River in 13 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Boston River. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Deportivo Maldonado Analysis

Deportivo Maldonado approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 26 points after 14 outings. With 8 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 22:15, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by A. M. Noble Sequeira (6 goals), Christian Tabó (4 goals), M. Espindola (2 goals), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Boston River Analysis

So far, Boston River have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 17 points from 14 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, while the 13:18 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on F. Bonfiglio (3 goals), F. Munoa (2 goals), L. Suhr (2 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Maldonado won 5 times, Boston River won 10 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:28 from Deportivo Maldonado's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Maldonado 4-3-3 / Boston River 3-4-3
H2H summary: Deportivo Maldonado wins 5, draws 0, Boston River wins 10

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 5 6 44:22 22 52
W W L D W
2 28 14 10 4 35:22 13 52
W L W D W
3 27 15 5 7 47:31 16 50
W W W W W
4 28 14 7 7 42:27 15 49
L W L D W
5 28 13 4 11 40:36 4 43
D D W W L
6 28 12 7 9 35:34 1 43
D L W L D
7 28 11 9 8 37:27 10 42
L W D W W
8 28 10 8 10 30:33 -3 38
D D L L L
9 28 9 7 12 36:35 1 34
L L L L L
10 28 8 9 11 28:30 -2 33
D L D D D
11 28 8 8 12 32:38 -6 32
D D W W L
12 28 7 11 10 23:30 -7 32
W D L D L
13 28 9 5 14 22:41 -19 32
W W D L W
14 28 8 6 14 27:38 -11 30
L L D W D
15 28 4 13 11 23:37 -14 25
D L L D D
16 28 6 4 18 21:41 -20 22
L W W L L
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