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19.09.2026 23:00
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Referee: Jordi Espinoza
Deportivo Garcilaso
Match Timeline
Universitario
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
6'
A. Salazar · Assist: K. Sandoval
Deportivo Garcilaso
⚽
10'
K. Sandoval
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
18'
Jorge Murrugarra
Universitario
⚽
19'
A. Gonzalez
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
32'
Piero Quispe
Universitario
🔄
46'
P. A. Quispe Cordova ↔ A. Quiroz
Universitario
⚽
58'
F. Castelli · Assist: F. Arancibia
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
60'
L. Alzugaray ↔ G. Lapadula
Universitario
🟨
66'
Gianluca Lapadula
Universitario
🔄
69'
C. Inga ↔ J. Gutierrez
Universitario
🔄
69'
J. Concha ↔ J. Guivin Tanta
Universitario
🔄
76'
F. Castelli ↔ F. Pacheco
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
79'
A. Valera ↔ B. Reyna
Universitario
🔄
81'
B. Da Silva ↔ A. Ascues
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
81'
F. Arancibia ↔ C. Olivares
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
89'
C. I. Ramos Rodriguez ↔ J. A. Rosell Delgado
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
90+1'
Héctor Aldair Salazar
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
90'
K. Sandoval ↔ L. Rios
Deportivo Garcilaso

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Garcilaso Win 56.3%
Draw 7.2%
Universitario Win 36.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Garcilaso1.21
Universitario1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso
WWDLW
35 GF / 24 GA
Universitario Universitario
WLDWL
56 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.56
0.92
Average Goals Conceded
1
12
BTTS Yes
19
9
Over 2.5
19
4.46
Shots on Goal
4.31

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 26 matches
Universitario Universitario 36 matches
Deportivo Garcilaso Statistic Universitario
13 Wins 18
6 Draws 10
7 Losses 8
35 Goals For 56
24 Goals Against 36
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
0.92 Avg Goals Conceded 1
12 BTTS Yes 19
14 Over 1.5 26
9 Over 2.5 19
6 Over 3.5 9
10 Clean Sheets 13
7 Failed To Score 10
4.46 Shots On Goal 4.31
12.23 Total Shots 13.47
3.77 Corners 5.63
45.5% Ball Possession 51.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Universitario. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Garcilaso expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Universitario in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universitario having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Deportivo Garcilaso come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Deportivo Garcilaso Analysis

Deportivo Garcilaso approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 45 points after 25 outings. They have recorded 13 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, with a 35:23 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on L. da Silva (7 goals), C. Olivares (6 goals), F. Arancibia (3 goals), with creative support from F. Arancibia (5 assists), C. Olivares (2 assists), A. Ascues (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Universitario Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 46 points from 25 games, Universitario bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 13 wins, 7 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 41:26, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through A. Valera (7 goals), G. Lapadula (4 goals), Edison Flores (3 goals), with creative support from J. Concha (4 assists), P. Reyna (3 assists), A. Valera (2 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which underlines an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Garcilaso won 0 times, Universitario won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:11 from Deportivo Garcilaso's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.9%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Garcilaso 4-2-3-1 / Universitario 3-5-2
H2H summary: Deportivo Garcilaso wins 0, draws 4, Universitario wins 3

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 17 8 3 46:19 27 59
W W L D L
2 28 14 8 6 45:33 12 50
D L W D W
3 28 14 6 8 39:25 14 48
L W L W W
4 28 13 8 7 47:31 16 47
D D W W L
5 28 14 3 11 41:40 1 45
L W L W W
6 28 13 5 10 48:40 8 44
W D L W L
7 28 12 7 9 43:36 7 43
W W L W W
8 28 12 7 9 36:45 -9 43
D D L L L
9 28 12 5 11 49:40 9 41
W W W W L
10 28 10 8 10 30:29 1 38
L D W L W
11 28 11 5 12 38:44 -6 38
W W W W W
12 28 9 8 11 43:53 -10 35
D W W D W
13 28 9 6 13 26:31 -5 33
D L W L W
14 28 7 10 11 36:39 -3 31
D L L D L
15 28 7 7 14 41:52 -11 28
D L W L W
16 28 6 8 14 29:42 -13 26
D W L L L
17 28 6 7 15 24:43 -19 25
L L L L L
18 28 4 8 16 32:51 -19 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2