PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.6%
Odds 2.74
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.14
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.6%
2.74
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.14
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71.3%
1.83
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Garcilaso Win 73.6%
Draw 9.8%
Cusco Win 16.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Garcilaso1.32
Cusco1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso
WWDLW
26 GF / 20 GA
Cusco Cusco
WLDWL
38 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.31
0.91
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
10
BTTS Yes
18
7
Over 2.5
16
3.86
Shots on Goal
4.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 22 matches
Cusco Cusco 29 matches
Deportivo Garcilaso Statistic Cusco
10 Wins 11
6 Draws 5
6 Losses 13
26 Goals For 38
20 Goals Against 44
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
0.91 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
10 BTTS Yes 18
12 Over 1.5 22
7 Over 2.5 16
4 Over 3.5 8
9 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 7
3.86 Shots On Goal 4.11
11.36 Total Shots 11.36
3.36 Corners 3.54
45.8% Ball Possession 55.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Garcilaso expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cusco in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cusco having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Cusco. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Deportivo Garcilaso come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Deportivo Garcilaso Analysis

Deportivo Garcilaso are currently 7 in the standings with 35 points from 21 matches. The record of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 26:20 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through Christopher Olivares (6 goals), Beto Da Silva (5 goals), Francisco Arancibia (3 goals), with creative support from Francisco Arancibia (4 assists), Christopher Olivares (2 assists), Kevin Sandoval (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Cusco Analysis

Cusco approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 36 points after 22 outings. The return of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 8 defeats, together with goals at 33:31, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Facundo Callejo (5 goals), Iván Colman (3 goals), José Miguel Manzaneda (2 goals), with creative support from Lucas Colitto (4 assists), Facundo Callejo (2 assists), Iván Colman (2 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, the split of - wins, - draws, and - losses supports the view of an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Garcilaso won 1 times, Cusco won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:14 from Deportivo Garcilaso's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.2%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Garcilaso 4-2-3-1 / Cusco 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Deportivo Garcilaso wins 1, draws 1, Cusco wins 6
Last matches: Deportivo Garcilaso
16.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cienciano
0
0
D
09.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
UCV Moquegua
2
0
W
02.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
1
0
W
27.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
FC Cajamarca
2
1
W
17.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sporting Cristal
0
1
L
30.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Juan Pablo II College
4
1
W
25.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Comerciantes Unidos
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Alianza Atletico
2
1
W
04.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
0
W
28.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
FBC Melgar
1
0
W
23.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Universitario
1
4
L
18.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sport Huancayo
1
2
L
04.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sport Boys
3
2
W
22.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
14.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Alianza Lima
1
1
D
08.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cienciano
2
3
L
23.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
UCV Moquegua
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
1
0
W
Last matches: Cusco
14.08.26
Pri
Cusco
Juan Pablo II College
2
0
W
07.08.26
Pri
Cusco
Comerciantes Unidos
1
3
L
01.08.26
Pri
Cusco
UTC Cajamarca
4
1
W
25.07.26
Pri
Cusco
Universitario
1
2
L
18.07.26
Pri
Cusco
Alianza Atletico
4
1
W
30.05.26
Pri
Cusco
ADT
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Cusco
Flamengo
0
3
L
23.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
21.05.26
CON
Cusco
Independiente Medellin
2
3
L
17.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Sport Boys
0
1
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
1
D
06.05.26
CON
Cusco
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Sporting Cristal
2
2
D
01.05.26
CON
Cusco
Independiente Medellin
0
1
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cusco
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
22.04.26
Pri
Cusco
FC Cajamarca
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Cusco
Alianza Lima
0
8
L
14.04.26
CON
Cusco
Estudiantes L.P.
1
2
L
09.04.26
CON
Cusco
Flamengo
0
2
L
04.04.26
Pri
Cusco
FBC Melgar
3
1
W
H2H: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cusco
14.06.26
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
0
0
D
08.03.26
H2H
Cusco
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
L
01.10.25
H2H
Cusco
Deportivo Garcilaso
4
0
L
11.05.25
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
1
3
L
29.07.24
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
0
2
L
17.02.24
H2H
Cusco
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
L
16.09.23
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
2
1
W
23.04.23
H2H
Cusco
Deportivo Garcilaso
2
1
L
Last matches: Deportivo Garcilaso
09.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
UCV Moquegua
2
0
W
27.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
FC Cajamarca
2
1
W
30.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Juan Pablo II College
4
1
W
17.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Alianza Atletico
2
1
W
28.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
FBC Melgar
1
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sport Boys
3
2
W
14.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Alianza Lima
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cienciano
2
3
L
14.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
1
0
W
01.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sporting Cristal
1
1
D
H2H at home: Deportivo Garcilaso
14.06.26
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
0
0
D
11.05.25
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
1
3
L
29.07.24
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
0
2
L
16.09.23
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
2
1
W
Last matches: Cusco
07.08.26
Pri
Cusco
Comerciantes Unidos
1
3
L
25.07.26
Pri
Cusco
Universitario
1
2
L
30.05.26
Pri
Cusco
ADT
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Cusco
Flamengo
0
3
L
17.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Sport Boys
0
1
L
03.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Sporting Cristal
2
2
D
01.05.26
CON
Cusco
Independiente Medellin
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
Cusco
Alianza Lima
0
8
L
14.04.26
CON
Cusco
Estudiantes L.P.
1
2
L
04.04.26
Pri
Cusco
FBC Melgar
3
1
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cusco
UCV Moquegua
2
1
W
01.03.26
Pri
Cusco
Juan Pablo II College
1
2
L
13.02.26
Pri
Cusco
UTC Cajamarca
0
1
L
01.02.26
Pri
Cusco
Alianza Atletico
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
Cusco
Always Ready
1
1
D
H2H away: Cusco
14.06.26
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
0
0
D
11.05.25
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
1
3
W
29.07.24
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
0
2
W
16.09.23
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
2
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.87
Draw 2.74
Home 2.74
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 2.07
Home 3.09
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 1.75 1.41
Over 2.0 1.56
Over 2.25 1.87
Over 2.5 2.14
Over 2.75 2.43
Over 3.0 2.97
Under 1.5 3.16
Under 1.75 2.76
Under 2.0 2.37
Under 2.25 1.93
Under 2.5 1.68
Under 2.75 1.52
Under 3.0 1.36
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 3.10
Home 2.40
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.10
Home 3.10
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 2.38
Home 2.75
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.10
Over 3.5 3.75
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.5 1.70
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.81
Draw 2.88
Home 2.66
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.62
Draw 1.85
Home 3.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.06
Draw 2.29
Home 2.88
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 0.75 1.04
Over 1.0 1.06
Over 1.25 1.19
Over 1.5 1.31
Over 1.75 1.41
Over 2.0 1.55
Over 2.25 1.83
Over 2.5 2.11
Over 2.75 2.44
Over 3.0 2.91
Over 3.25 3.29
Over 3.5 3.58
Over 3.75 4.58
Over 4.0 6.45
Over 4.25 6.85
Over 4.5 7.30
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 7.40
Under 0.75 6.75
Under 1.0 6.15
Under 1.25 3.86
Under 1.5 2.92
Under 1.75 2.60
Under 2.0 2.22
Under 2.25 1.86
Under 2.5 1.69
Under 2.75 1.52
Under 3.0 1.33
Under 3.25 1.28
Under 3.5 1.21
Under 3.75 1.14
Under 4.0 1.05
Under 4.25 1.04
Under 4.5 1.03
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.65
Draw 3.25
Home 2.70
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 2.08
Home 3.25
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 2.38
Home 2.95
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.34
Over 2.0 1.56
Over 2.25 1.83
Over 2.5 2.08
Over 2.75 2.40
Over 3.0 3.00
Over 3.25 3.00
Over 3.5 3.65
Over 3.75 4.10
Over 4.0 5.40
Over 4.25 5.75
Over 4.5 6.75
Under 1.5 2.90
Under 2.0 2.23
Under 2.25 1.84
Under 2.5 1.64
Under 2.75 1.48
Under 3.0 1.32
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.22
Under 3.75 1.18
Under 4.0 1.10
Under 4.25 1.09
Under 4.5 1.06

Standings

Primera Division: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 5 3 2 0 9:5 4 11
W D W D W
2 5 3 1 1 9:4 5 10
W D W L W
3 5 3 1 1 10:6 4 10
W L D W W
4 5 3 1 1 5:2 3 10
D W W W L
5 5 3 1 1 8:7 1 10
W D L W W
6
Cusco Away
5 3 0 2 12:7 5 9
W L W L W
7 5 2 2 1 5:3 2 8
D D W W L
8 5 2 1 2 7:7 0 7
L D W W L
9 5 2 1 2 4:4 0 7
W D L L W
10 5 2 1 2 7:9 -2 7
D W L W L
11 5 2 1 2 6:9 -3 7
L D W L W
12 5 1 2 2 9:9 0 5
L W L D D
13 5 1 2 2 4:6 -2 5
L D L W D
14 5 1 1 3 9:11 -2 4
L W L L D
15 5 0 4 1 3:5 -2 4
D L D D D
16 5 1 1 3 3:6 -3 4
D L W L L
17 5 0 2 3 3:7 -4 2
D D L L L
18 5 0 2 3 3:9 -6 2
L D L D L
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)