06.09.2026 18:30
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Referee: Jordi Espinoza, Peru
Deportivo Garcilaso
Match Timeline
Atletico Grau
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
23'
Agustin Gomez
Deportivo Garcilaso
30'
Beto Da Silva · Assist: Facundo Castelli
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
34'
Christian Vasquez
Atletico Grau
🟨
45'
Xavi Moreno Layme
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
45'
Gerardo Ameli
Atletico Grau
🔄
45'
Diego Barreto ↔ Adrián Fernández
Atletico Grau
🔄
45'
Mauro Da Luz ↔ Gabriel Alfaro
Atletico Grau
🟨
47'
Elsar Rodas
Atletico Grau
57'
Facundo Castelli · Assist: Francisco Arancibia
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
59'
Raúl Ruidíaz
Atletico Grau
68'
Agustin Gonzalez
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
69'
Raúl Ruidíaz ↔ Aldair Vásquez
Atletico Grau
🔄
69'
Pablo Lavandeira ↔ Eslyn Imanol Correa Vilela
Atletico Grau
🔄
70'
Facundo Castelli ↔ Christopher Olivares
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
70'
Pablo Labrin ↔ Adrian Ascues
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
70'
Beto Da Silva ↔ Fernando Pacheco
Deportivo Garcilaso
75'
Adrián Fernández · Assist: Paulo De La Cruz
Atletico Grau
🔄
77'
Elsar Rodas ↔ Luis Benites
Atletico Grau
80'
Adrián Fernández
Atletico Grau
89'
Agustin Gonzalez · Assist: Adrian Ascues
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
90+3'
Francisco Arancibia ↔ S. Ramírez
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
90+5'
Ignacio Tapia
Atletico Grau

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.6%
Odds 1.54
BTTS
No
Probability 65.8%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.83
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.6%
1.54
BTTS No
65.8%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.83
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72%
1.46
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.30
Correct Score 2-0
-
6.50
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Garcilaso Win 71.6%
Draw 3.4%
Atletico Grau Win 24.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Garcilaso1.16
Atletico Grau0.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso
WWDLW
31 GF / 21 GA
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau
WLDWL
20 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
0.83
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
0.96
11
BTTS Yes
7
8
Over 2.5
7
4.13
Shots on Goal
3.92

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 24 matches
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 24 matches
Deportivo Garcilaso Statistic Atletico Grau
12 Wins 8
6 Draws 5
6 Losses 11
31 Goals For 20
21 Goals Against 23
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 0.96
11 BTTS Yes 7
13 Over 1.5 10
8 Over 2.5 7
5 Over 3.5 5
10 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 12
4.13 Shots On Goal 3.92
11.46 Total Shots 11.58
3.33 Corners 3.88
45.3% Ball Possession 45.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Deportivo Garcilaso's more proactive style and Atletico Grau's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atletico Grau. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Deportivo Garcilaso come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Deportivo Garcilaso arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 39 points compared to Atletico Grau in 13 on 26, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Deportivo Garcilaso Analysis

Deportivo Garcilaso approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 39 points after 23 outings. They have recorded 11 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, with a 30:21 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Christopher Olivares (6 goals), Beto Da Silva (5 goals), Francisco Arancibia (3 goals), with creative support from Francisco Arancibia (4 assists), Christopher Olivares (2 assists), Kevin Sandoval (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which underlines an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Atletico Grau Analysis

Atletico Grau sit 13 with 26 points after 23 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 19:23 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Raúl Ruidíaz (2 goals), Rafael Guarderas (1 goals), Patricio Álvarez (1 goals), with creative support from Rafael Guarderas (2 assists), Raúl Ruidíaz (1 assists), Elsar Rodas (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Garcilaso won 2 times, Atletico Grau won 0 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:4 from Deportivo Garcilaso's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.71 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.6%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Garcilaso 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Grau 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Deportivo Garcilaso wins 2, draws 5, Atletico Grau wins 0

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 25 10 7 8 37:31 6 37
W W W D W
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
12 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
13 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
14 25 8 5 12 22:27 -5 29
L W W W D
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2