ECUADOR LIGA PRO
22.08.2026 00:00
Alejandro Serrano Aguilar
Referee: Parra Leon Patricio Javier, Ecuador
Deportivo Cuenca
Match Timeline
Mushuc Runa SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Melvin Diaz
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
42'
José Hernández
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
44'
Carlos Arboleda
Deportivo Cuenca
🟥
45+3'
Matías Klimowicz
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
46'
R. Ibarra ↔ F. Mina
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
58'
T. Minda ↔ K. Peralta
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
61'
G. Nardelli ↔ A. Lopez
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
66'
J. Hernandez ↔ L. Lemos
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
72'
M. Perea ↔ J. Caicedo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
72'
N. Bazan ↔ E. Caicedo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
74'
M. Diaz ↔ D. Noboa
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
74'
L. Mancinelli ↔ D. Gonzalez
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
79'
Jeremy Cusme
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
89'
Edison Vega
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
90'
Nicolás Dávila
Mushuc Runa SC

Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.6%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Cuenca Win 30.5%
Draw 11%
Mushuc Runa SC Win 58.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Cuenca1.12
Mushuc Runa SC1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca
WWDLW
26 GF / 34 GA
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC
WLDWL
32 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
0.96
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
13
BTTS Yes
15
10
Over 2.5
14
3.8
Shots on Goal
3.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 27 matches
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC 25 matches
Deportivo Cuenca Statistic Mushuc Runa SC
11 Wins 8
4 Draws 8
12 Losses 9
26 Goals For 32
34 Goals Against 34
0.96 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
13 BTTS Yes 15
18 Over 1.5 18
10 Over 2.5 14
3 Over 3.5 9
6 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 6
3.8 Shots On Goal 3.88
12.68 Total Shots 12.84
4.52 Corners 4.8
50.6% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Deportivo Cuenca have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Cuenca expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Mushuc Runa SC in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mushuc Runa SC having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Mushuc Runa SC. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Deportivo Cuenca Analysis

Deportivo Cuenca approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 31 points from 24 matches. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 4 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 22:30 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Jorge Ordóñez (5 goals), Matías Klimowicz (3 goals), David González (2 goals), with creative support from David González (2 assists), Germán Rivero (2 assists), Carlos Arboleda (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mushuc Runa SC Analysis

Mushuc Runa SC sit 9 with 31 points after 24 league matches. The record of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 32:34 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ronie Carrillo (6 goals), Renato Ibarra (4 goals), Cristopher Angulo (3 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Dávila (3 assists), Renato Ibarra (2 assists), Kevin Velasco (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Cuenca won 6 times, Mushuc Runa SC won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:16 from Deportivo Cuenca's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Cuenca 4-2-3-1 / Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2
H2H summary: Deportivo Cuenca wins 6, draws 4, Mushuc Runa SC wins 5

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 2 3 66:28 38 68
D W W W W
2 27 14 5 8 31:26 5 47
W W L W W
3 27 13 6 8 35:27 8 45
W L D W W
4 27 12 8 7 47:25 22 44
D W D L W
5 28 12 6 10 27:22 5 42
D L W W L
6 27 10 9 8 28:22 6 39
L W D L D
7 28 9 10 9 33:34 -1 37
D W D D W
8 27 10 7 10 29:30 -1 37
L W D W W
9 27 9 9 9 27:30 -3 36
W W D D L
10 27 9 8 10 29:30 -1 35
L L W L D
11 27 9 8 10 23:32 -9 32
W L W D L
12 27 9 5 13 23:35 -12 32
L D L L L
13 27 8 6 13 31:41 -10 30
L L W D L
14 28 9 2 17 26:39 -13 29
L W L L L
15 28 7 6 15 18:29 -11 27
W L L L D
16 27 5 5 17 14:37 -23 20
W L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs