ECUADOR LIGA PRO
20.09.2026 21:00
Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar
Referee: E. Moreira

Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 66.5%
Odds 1.53
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.50
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
66.5%
1.53
BTTS No
55%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.50
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.27
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.50
Correct Score 0-1
-
7.50
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Cuenca Win 33.5%
Draw 21.3%
Mushuc Runa SC Win 45.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Cuenca1.05
Mushuc Runa SC1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca
WWDLW
29 GF / 39 GA
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC
WLDWL
35 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
0.91
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
15
BTTS Yes
17
11
Over 2.5
15
3.8
Shots on Goal
3.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 32 matches
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC 30 matches
Deportivo Cuenca Statistic Mushuc Runa SC
12 Wins 9
6 Draws 11
14 Losses 10
29 Goals For 35
39 Goals Against 38
0.91 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
15 BTTS Yes 17
20 Over 1.5 20
11 Over 2.5 15
4 Over 3.5 10
8 Clean Sheets 11
10 Failed To Score 8
3.8 Shots On Goal 3.67
13.17 Total Shots 12.4
4.7 Corners 4.87
49.8% Ball Possession 48.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Cuenca expected to line up in 4-5-1 and Mushuc Runa SC in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mushuc Runa SC having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Mushuc Runa SC.

Deportivo Cuenca Analysis

From their first 30 matches, Deportivo Cuenca have collected 36 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. The record of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 25:37 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Ordoñez (5 goals), M. Klimowicz (3 goals), David González (2 goals), with creative support from C. Arboleda (3 assists), David González (2 assists), G. Rivero (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mushuc Runa SC Analysis

Mushuc Runa SC are currently 10 in the standings with 38 points from 30 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 11 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 35:38 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by R. Carrillo (6 goals), Alex Renato Ibarra Mina (5 goals), Cristopher Adonis Angulo Caicedo (3 goals), with creative support from Esteban Nicolás Dávila Alarcón (3 assists), A. Zambrano (3 assists), R. Carrillo (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Cuenca won 1 times, Mushuc Runa SC won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:8 from Deportivo Cuenca's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.7%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Cuenca 4-5-1 / Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2
H2H summary: Deportivo Cuenca wins 1, draws 2, Mushuc Runa SC wins 2

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W W L W W
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
L D D D W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
W L W D L
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
D L D W L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
D W L L W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L L W D W
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs