ARGENTINA PRIMERA NACIONAL
26.09.2026 19:00
Estadio Juan Pasquale

Defensores De Belgrano vs Ferro Carril Oeste Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 51.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
51.4%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Defensores De Belgrano Win 35.1%
Draw 13.5%
Ferro Carril Oeste Win 51.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Defensores De Belgrano0.79
Ferro Carril Oeste1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Defensores De Belgrano Defensores De Belgrano
WWDLW
22 GF / 26 GA
Ferro Carril Oeste Ferro Carril Oeste
WLDWL
35 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
0.76
Average Goals Scored
1.17
0.9
Average Goals Conceded
0.83
11
BTTS Yes
12
8
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Defensores De Belgrano Defensores De Belgrano 29 matches
Ferro Carril Oeste Ferro Carril Oeste 30 matches
Defensores De Belgrano Statistic Ferro Carril Oeste
7 Wins 17
12 Draws 7
10 Losses 6
22 Goals For 35
26 Goals Against 25
0.76 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
0.9 Avg Goals Conceded 0.83
11 BTTS Yes 12
17 Over 1.5 16
8 Over 2.5 11
0 Over 3.5 5
11 Clean Sheets 14
13 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Ferro Carril Oeste's more proactive style and Defensores De Belgrano's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Ferro Carril Oeste. Ferro Carril Oeste carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 55 points while Defensores De Belgrano sit 12 on 33, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ferro Carril Oeste having the stronger overall control.

Defensores De Belgrano Analysis

So far, Defensores De Belgrano have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 33 points from 29 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 12 draws, and 10 losses, while the 22:26 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 8 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ferro Carril Oeste Analysis

Ferro Carril Oeste arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 55 points after 29 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 16 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, while the 34:25 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Defensores De Belgrano won 1 times, Ferro Carril Oeste won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:7 from Defensores De Belgrano's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.5%)
H2H summary: Defensores De Belgrano wins 1, draws 2, Ferro Carril Oeste wins 2

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 17 7 6 35:25 10 58
W D D D W
2 29 16 7 6 47:27 20 55
W W W D D
3 29 14 7 8 36:25 11 49
W W W L W
4 29 12 10 7 42:28 14 46
L W L W W
5 29 12 10 7 23:16 7 46
D D W W L
6 29 12 9 8 35:25 10 45
L L L W W
7 30 11 9 10 27:25 2 42
W W L D L
8 30 9 12 9 24:27 -3 39
L D L W D
9 29 8 13 8 22:17 5 37
D D D D L
10 29 9 8 12 26:34 -8 35
L L W D D
11 29 8 9 12 26:29 -3 33
D W D W W
12 29 7 12 10 22:26 -4 33
W D W L L
13 30 6 14 10 17:26 -9 32
D L W D L
14 30 6 14 10 27:37 -10 32
L D D D L
15 29 6 13 10 19:27 -8 31
D D D D W
16 30 6 13 11 24:34 -10 31
D D L L L
17 30 7 10 13 23:34 -11 31
L W D L W
18 30 6 8 16 21:34 -13 26
W L L D L
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation