URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Luis Franzini

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Defensor Sporting Win 30.8%
Draw 12.3%
Liverpool Montevideo Win 57%
Expected Goals (xG)
Defensor Sporting0.87
Liverpool Montevideo1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting
WWDLW
19 GF / 23 GA
Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo
WLDWL
27 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
0.79
Average Goals Scored
1.08
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1
12
BTTS Yes
11
6
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
1.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 24 matches
Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo 25 matches
Defensor Sporting Statistic Liverpool Montevideo
6 Wins 8
9 Draws 9
9 Losses 8
19 Goals For 27
23 Goals Against 25
0.79 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1
12 BTTS Yes 11
15 Over 1.5 15
6 Over 2.5 10
0 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 11
9 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 1.4
0 Total Shots 4.6
0 Corners 1.6
0% Ball Possession 22.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Liverpool Montevideo's more proactive style and Defensor Sporting's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Liverpool Montevideo having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Liverpool Montevideo. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Defensor Sporting Analysis

From their first 22 matches, Defensor Sporting have collected 27 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. The record of 6 wins, 9 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 19:20 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Liverpool Montevideo Analysis

Liverpool Montevideo are currently 9 in the standings with 32 points from 23 matches. The record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 26:23 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Defensor Sporting won 5 times, Liverpool Montevideo won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:23 from Defensor Sporting's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.7%)
Predicted formations: Defensor Sporting 4-3-2-1 / Liverpool Montevideo -
H2H summary: Defensor Sporting wins 5, draws 2, Liverpool Montevideo wins 8
Last matches: Defensor Sporting
09.08.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
0
1
L
03.08.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
2
1
W
25.07.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
1
2
L
13.07.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
04.07.26
Fri
Defensor Sporting
Cruzeiro
0
2
L
07.06.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
1
1
D
30.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
24.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
0
2
L
17.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
1
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
2
L
04.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
1
1
D
27.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
0
1
L
31.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Albion FC
1
1
D
26.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Danubio
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
0
0
D
Last matches: Liverpool Montevideo
08.08.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Albion FC
1
0
W
02.08.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Central Espanol
0
0
D
25.07.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
12.07.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
2
L
08.06.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
01.06.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
22.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
16.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
1
2
L
08.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Wanderers
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
3
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Juventud
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
3
L
13.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
2
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Progreso
3
3
D
24.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Central Espanol
3
3
D
21.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
16.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Atletico Torque
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
2
0
W
H2H: Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo
25.07.26
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
1
2
L
14.02.26
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
2
W
30.08.25
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
2
0
L
14.06.25
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
4
2
W
07.03.25
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
L
21.10.24
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
19.04.24
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
31.01.24
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
0
L
18.10.23
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
2
0
L
30.07.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
L
12.03.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
2
2
D
04.10.22
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
3
0
W
01.08.22
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
3
W
05.02.22
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
0
3
L
20.02.21
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
0
3
L
Last matches: Defensor Sporting
09.08.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
0
1
L
03.08.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
2
1
W
25.07.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
1
2
L
07.06.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
1
1
D
24.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
0
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
2
L
27.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Albion FC
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
2
1
W
08.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
09.11.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
1
1
D
24.10.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
06.10.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
2
1
W
19.09.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Danubio
2
1
W
05.09.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
0
W
23.08.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Plaza Colonia
1
0
W
11.08.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
CA River Plate
1
0
W
07.12.21
Seg
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
3
0
W
H2H at home: Defensor Sporting
25.07.26
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
1
2
L
14.06.25
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
4
2
W
07.03.25
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
L
21.10.24
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
30.07.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
L
12.03.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
2
2
D
04.10.22
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
3
0
W
05.02.22
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
0
3
L
20.02.21
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
0
3
L
Last matches: Liverpool Montevideo
02.08.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Central Espanol
0
0
D
25.07.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
01.06.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
1
2
L
08.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Wanderers
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Juventud
1
1
D
13.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
2
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Progreso
3
3
D
21.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
10.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
25.02.26
CON
Liverpool Montevideo
Independiente Medellin
0
0
D
20.02.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
1
D
06.02.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Albion FC
2
1
W
07.11.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
20.10.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Plaza Colonia
1
0
W
03.10.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
CA River Plate
1
0
W
20.09.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
3
L
07.09.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
24.08.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
2
L
10.08.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Miramar
1
0
W
H2H away: Liverpool Montevideo
25.07.26
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
1
2
W
14.06.25
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
4
2
L
07.03.25
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
W
21.10.24
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
L
30.07.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
W
12.03.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
2
2
D
04.10.22
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
3
0
L
05.02.22
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
0
3
W
20.02.21
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
0
3
W

Standings

Primera: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D W D W
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
W W L D W
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
W W W W W
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D L D L
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
W L W L D
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W D W D L
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
W L L W L
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D W D W
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
L W D L W
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W L W L L
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L L W D D
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
L W L L D
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L W L W L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W W D D W
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
L L L W L
16 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
L L L D D
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)