URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Luis Franzini
Referee: S. Motta
Defensor Sporting
Match Timeline
Juventud
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
13'
A. Cruz
Juventud
🟨
15'
Axel Frugone
Defensor Sporting
🔄
21'
F. Castro ↔ A. Torterolo
Defensor Sporting
🟨
33'
Renzo Rabino
Juventud
🟥
45'
Pablo Lago
Juventud
49'
L. Agazzi
Defensor Sporting
🟨
58'
Rodrigo Chagas
Juventud
🔄
61'
R. Chagas ↔ F. Perez
Juventud
🔄
61'
M. Izaguirre ↔ R. Sanchez
Juventud
🔄
65'
F. Mimbacas ↔ B. Larregui
Juventud
🔄
73'
A. Frugone ↔ V. Rodriguez
Defensor Sporting
🔄
73'
N. Wunsch ↔ B. Lozano
Defensor Sporting
🔄
81'
G. Barrios ↔ E. Cuello
Defensor Sporting
🔄
81'
A. Machado ↔ L. Navarro
Defensor Sporting
🔄
81'
A. Cruz ↔ G. Gomez
Juventud
🟨
83'
Facundo Perez
Juventud
🟨
87'
Lautaro Navarro
Defensor Sporting
🟨
90+8'
Alan Torterolo
Defensor Sporting
🟥
90+9'
Lucas De los Santos
Defensor Sporting
🟨
90+6'
Ramiro Peralta
Juventud
🟨
90+5'
Patricio Pernicone
Juventud
90'
R. Peralta
Juventud

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 90.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
90.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Defensor Sporting Win 90.7%
Draw 5.2%
Juventud Win 4.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Defensor Sporting1.1
Juventud0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting
WWDLW
12 GF / 9 GA
Juventud Juventud
WLDWL
23 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
0.86
Average Goals Scored
1.15
0.64
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
6
BTTS Yes
13
2
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 14 matches
Juventud Juventud 20 matches
Defensor Sporting Statistic Juventud
5 Wins 5
6 Draws 5
3 Losses 10
12 Goals For 23
9 Goals Against 29
0.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
0.64 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
6 BTTS Yes 13
7 Over 1.5 13
2 Over 2.5 11
0 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 4.33
0 Total Shots 13.5
0 Corners 4.33
0% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Defensor Sporting's more proactive style and Juventud's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Juventud. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Defensor Sporting arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 21 points compared to Juventud in 14 on 12, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Defensor Sporting expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Juventud in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Juventud having the stronger overall control.

Defensor Sporting Analysis

Placed 5 with 21 points from 14 outings, Defensor Sporting continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 12:9 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by B. Montenegro (6 goals), A. Machado (2 goals), F. Castro (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Juventud Analysis

Juventud sit 14 with 12 points after 14 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 15:21 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on F. Mimbacas (7 goals), G. Gomez (2 goals), Ramiro Peralta (2 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Defensor Sporting won 6 times, Juventud won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:25 from Defensor Sporting's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (95.9%)
Predicted formations: Defensor Sporting 4-2-3-1 / Juventud 4-3-3
H2H summary: Defensor Sporting wins 6, draws 2, Juventud wins 7

Lineups

Defensor Sporting
Formation
Juventud
L. Machado
L. Machado
L. Agazzi
L. Agazzi
L. de los Santos
L. de los Santos
F. Sorondo
F. Sorondo
A. Frugone
A. Frugone
N. Wunsch
N. Wunsch
M. Amaro
M. Amaro
G. Barrios
G. Barrios
F. Castro
F. Castro
B. Montenegro
B. Montenegro
A. Machado
A. Machado
N. Rossi
N. Rossi
D. Morosini
D. Morosini
P. Pernicone
P. Pernicone
E. Mas
E. Mas
R. Rabino
R. Rabino
M. Izaguirre
M. Izaguirre
P. Lago
P. Lago
R. Chagas
R. Chagas
R. Peralta
R. Peralta
A. Cruz
A. Cruz
F. Mimbacas
F. Mimbacas
Defensor Sporting 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
L. Machado
G
11
L. Agazzi
⚽ 49'
D
24
L. de los Santos
🟥 90+9'
M
14
F. Sorondo
D
15
A. Frugone
↓ 73' 🟨 15'
D
8
N. Wunsch
↓ 73'
M
6
M. Amaro
M
5
G. Barrios
↓ 81'
M
77
F. Castro
↓ 21'
M
26
B. Montenegro
F
9
A. Machado
↓ 81'
F
Substitutes
23
B. Simone
G
20
M. Caballero
D
17
V. Rodriguez
↑ 73'
D
4
G. Rodriguez
30
E. Cuello
↑ 81'
M
33
S. Bruschi
F
22
A. Torterolo
↑ 21' 🟨 90+8'
M
21
N. Scotti
F
7
B. Lozano
↑ 73'
M
28
L. Navarro
↑ 81' 🟨 87'
F
Juventud 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
12
N. Rossi
G
5
D. Morosini
D
2
P. Pernicone
🟨 90+5'
D
23
E. Mas
D
16
R. Rabino
🟨 33'
D
8
M. Izaguirre
↓ 61'
M
11
P. Lago
🟥 45'
M
22
R. Chagas
↓ 61' 🟨 58'
M
37
R. Peralta
⚽ 90' 🟨 90+6'
M
15
A. Cruz
⚽ 13' ↓ 81'
M
80
F. Mimbacas
↓ 65'
F
Substitutes
1
S. Sosa
G
32
V. Barrios
D
21
F. Perez
↑ 61' 🟨 83'
M
20
R. Sanchez
↑ 61'
F
30
G. Gomez
↑ 81'
M
27
J. Boselli
M
26
G. Pereiro
F
10
B. Larregui
↑ 65'
F
9
M. Perez
F
90
S. Guerrero
F
Last matches: Defensor Sporting
07.06.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
1
1
D
30.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
24.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
0
2
L
17.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
1
2
L
04.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
1
1
D
27.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
0
1
L
31.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Albion FC
1
1
D
26.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Danubio
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
0
0
D
26.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
14.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
1
1
D
09.11.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
1
1
D
02.11.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
1
2
L
Last matches: Juventud
06.06.26
Pri
Juventud
Club Nacional
1
2
L
31.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Wanderers
2
5
L
16.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Progreso
2
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Wanderers
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
20.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Penarol
2
2
D
12.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Progreso
1
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
30.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Boston River
1
2
L
25.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Cerro
0
1
L
22.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Albion FC
0
1
L
16.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
4
L
13.03.26
CON
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Club Nacional
3
1
W
06.03.26
CON
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
1
1
D
02.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Deportivo Maldonado
1
2
L
26.02.26
CON
Juventud
Club Guarani
2
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
Juventud
Central Espanol
0
1
L
19.02.26
CON
Juventud
Club Guarani
0
0
D
17.02.26
Pri
Juventud
Atletico Torque
2
2
D
H2H: Defensor Sporting vs Juventud
10.05.26
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
2
L
05.09.25
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
0
W
16.03.25
H2H
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
2
1
L
02.11.21
H2H
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
3
3
D
21.07.21
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
2
L
06.10.19
H2H
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
1
3
W
20.07.19
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
1
D
09.03.19
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
4
L
09.09.17
H2H
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
0
1
W
24.02.17
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
2
1
W
04.09.16
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
0
1
L
08.05.16
H2H
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
2
1
L
31.10.15
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
4
1
W
29.03.15
H2H
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
5
0
L
21.09.14
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
2
0
W
Last matches: Defensor Sporting
07.06.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
1
1
D
24.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
0
2
L
27.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Albion FC
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
2
1
W
08.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
09.11.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
1
1
D
24.10.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
06.10.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
2
1
W
19.09.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Danubio
2
1
W
05.09.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
0
W
23.08.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Plaza Colonia
1
0
W
11.08.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
CA River Plate
1
0
W
H2H at home: Defensor Sporting
10.05.26
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
2
L
05.09.25
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
0
W
21.07.21
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
2
L
20.07.19
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
1
D
09.03.19
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
4
L
24.02.17
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
2
1
W
04.09.16
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
0
1
L
31.10.15
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
4
1
W
21.09.14
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
2
0
W
Last matches: Juventud
06.06.26
Pri
Juventud
Club Nacional
1
2
L
20.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Penarol
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
25.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Cerro
0
1
L
16.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
4
L
13.03.26
CON
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
02.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Deportivo Maldonado
1
2
L
26.02.26
CON
Juventud
Club Guarani
2
1
W
17.02.26
Pri
Juventud
Atletico Torque
2
2
D
13.02.26
CON
Juventud
Universidad Catolica
4
3
W
01.11.25
Pri
Juventud
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
20.10.25
Pri
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
04.10.25
Pri
Juventud
Boston River
0
0
D
21.09.25
Pri
Juventud
Penarol
0
1
L
05.09.25
Pri
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
22.08.25
Pri
Juventud
Wanderers
1
0
W
10.08.25
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
2
L
H2H away: Juventud
10.05.26
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
2
W
05.09.25
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
0
L
21.07.21
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
2
W
20.07.19
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
1
D
09.03.19
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
4
W
24.02.17
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
2
1
L
04.09.16
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
0
1
W
31.10.15
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
4
1
L
21.09.14
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
2
0
L

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 12 3 4 35:20 15 39
W W D W W
2 19 10 7 2 25:15 10 37
D D D W L
3 19 11 3 5 28:18 10 36
W L W W W
4 19 9 5 5 29:20 9 32
W L L D W
5 19 10 1 8 31:26 5 31
W L W W W
6 19 9 4 6 27:25 2 31
D W L W W
7 19 8 5 6 29:24 5 29
L W W L W
8 19 7 5 7 22:24 -2 26
D W D D W
9 19 6 7 6 22:20 2 25
D W D L L
10 19 7 3 9 21:20 1 24
D W W L L
11 19 5 8 6 15:16 -1 23
D D L L L
12 19 6 3 10 19:26 -7 21
D L L W L
13 18 4 7 7 19:26 -7 19
D L L L L
14 18 5 3 10 22:29 -7 18
L L W W W
15 19 3 4 12 16:30 -14 13
L W L L L
16 19 3 4 12 10:31 -21 13
L L W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)