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27.09.2026 21:00
Estadio Luis Franzini
Referee: G. Tejera
Defensor Sporting
Match Timeline
Danubio
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
20'
E. Velazquez
Defensor Sporting
🔄
46'
F. Balatti ↔ E. Femia
Danubio
🔄
46'
E. Velazquez ↔ C. Tizon
Danubio
🔄
57'
E. Elizalde ↔ F. Sorondo
Defensor Sporting
🔄
62'
S. Fernandez ↔ I. Costantino
Danubio
🔄
63'
M. Ferreira ↔ B. Azambuja
Danubio
🔄
66'
N. Medina ↔ N. Scotti
Defensor Sporting
🔄
67'
T. A. Pozzo ↔ X. Biscayzacu
Defensor Sporting
🟨
68'
Lucas De los Santos
Defensor Sporting
🔄
79'
G. Barrios ↔ M. Rabunal
Defensor Sporting
🔄
79'
B. Montenegro ↔ J. Diaz
Defensor Sporting
🟨
83'
Lucas Agazzi
Defensor Sporting
🟨
84'
Ivo Costantino
Danubio
🟨
85'
Sebastián Rodríguez
Danubio
🔄
86'
S. Rodriguez ↔ E. Cabrera
Danubio

Defensor Sporting vs Danubio Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Defensor Sporting Win 57.3%
Draw 14.3%
Danubio Win 28.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Defensor Sporting1.02
Danubio0.97
Recent Form (Last 5)
Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting
WWDLW
25 GF / 35 GA
Danubio Danubio
WLDWL
24 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
0.83
Average Goals Scored
0.83
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
16
BTTS Yes
14
9
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 30 matches
Danubio Danubio 29 matches
Defensor Sporting Statistic Danubio
7 Wins 4
11 Draws 14
12 Losses 11
25 Goals For 24
35 Goals Against 38
0.83 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
16 BTTS Yes 14
20 Over 1.5 19
9 Over 2.5 11
3 Over 3.5 7
7 Clean Sheets 7
10 Failed To Score 13
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Danubio. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Defensor Sporting Analysis

From their first 29 matches, Defensor Sporting have collected 32 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 7 wins, 11 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 25:33 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Danubio Analysis

Danubio sit 15 with 26 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 14 draws, and 11 defeats with a 24:38 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Defensor Sporting won 2 times, Danubio won 0 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:3 from Defensor Sporting's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.7%)
Predicted formations: Defensor Sporting 4-2-3-1 / Danubio 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Defensor Sporting wins 2, draws 3, Danubio wins 0

Standings

Primera: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 3 1 19:8 11 24
W D W W D
2 11 7 2 2 17:11 6 23
W W W W W
3 11 7 1 3 21:12 9 22
L W L D L
4 11 6 3 2 16:8 8 20
L D W D W
5 11 5 3 3 16:9 7 18
L D W W W
6 11 5 3 3 13:14 -1 18
D W L D L
7 11 4 5 2 12:8 4 17
L W D D W
8 11 5 1 5 12:13 -1 16
W D L W W
9 11 4 3 4 12:10 2 15
W L L L D
10 11 4 3 4 14:13 1 15
W W D L L
11 11 4 3 4 13:17 -4 15
L L W W D
12 11 2 4 5 5:11 -6 10
W L W L D
13 11 3 0 8 12:19 -7 9
W W W L L
14 11 2 2 7 11:20 -9 8
L L L W L
15 11 0 6 5 7:14 -7 6
D L L L L
16 11 1 2 8 5:18 -13 5
L L L L L
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)