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10.10.2026 14:00
Estadio Luis Franzini

Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 65.2%
Odds 1.91
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.33
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
65.2%
1.91 ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
2.10 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.33 ▥
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
1.28 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
9.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
15.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Defensor Sporting Win 34.9%
Draw 23.7%
Cerro Win 41.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Defensor Sporting1.11
Cerro0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting
WWDLW
28 GF / 38 GA
Cerro Cerro
WLDWL
23 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
0.74
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
17
BTTS Yes
13
10
Over 2.5
12
1.5
Shots on Goal
1.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 32 matches
Cerro Cerro 31 matches
Defensor Sporting Statistic Cerro
8 Wins 9
11 Draws 6
13 Losses 16
28 Goals For 23
38 Goals Against 45
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 0.74
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
17 BTTS Yes 13
21 Over 1.5 19
10 Over 2.5 12
4 Over 3.5 6
8 Clean Sheets 7
10 Failed To Score 12
1.5 Shots On Goal 1.67
2.25 Total Shots 4
2.25 Corners 1.67
14.8% Ball Possession 20%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Defensor Sporting expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cerro in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cerro having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cerro. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Defensor Sporting Analysis

From their first 31 matches, Defensor Sporting have collected 35 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. The record of 8 wins, 11 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 28:36 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cerro Analysis

So far, Cerro have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 33 points from 31 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 16 losses with goals at 23:45 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Defensor Sporting won 3 times, Cerro won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:6 from Defensor Sporting's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.3%)
Predicted formations: Defensor Sporting 4-2-3-1 / Cerro 4-3-3
H2H summary: Defensor Sporting wins 3, draws 0, Cerro wins 2

Standings

Primera: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D W D W
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
W W L D W
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
W W W W W
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D L D L
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
W L W L D
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W D W D L
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
W L L W L
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D W D W
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
L W D L W
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W L W L L
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L L W D D
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
L W L L D
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L W L W L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W W D D W
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
L L L W L
16
Cerro Away
15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
L L L D D
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)