NETHERLANDS EERSTE DIVISIE
20.09.2026 14:45
De Vijverberg

De Graafschap vs NAC Breda Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
69.4%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
De Graafschap Win 23.7%
Draw 7%
NAC Breda Win 69.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
De Graafschap1.8
NAC Breda2.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
De Graafschap De Graafschap
WWDLW
20 GF / 41 GA
NAC Breda NAC Breda
WLDWL
19 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.58
3.42
Average Goals Conceded
2
11
BTTS Yes
9
11
Over 2.5
9
4.17
Shots on Goal
6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

De Graafschap De Graafschap 12 matches
NAC Breda NAC Breda 12 matches
De Graafschap Statistic NAC Breda
3 Wins 5
1 Draws 1
8 Losses 6
20 Goals For 19
41 Goals Against 24
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.58
3.42 Avg Goals Conceded 2
11 BTTS Yes 9
12 Over 1.5 11
11 Over 2.5 9
7 Over 3.5 6
0 Clean Sheets 0
1 Failed To Score 3
4.17 Shots On Goal 6
15 Total Shots 21.83
4.5 Corners 7
52.8% Ball Possession 59.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring NAC Breda. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with De Graafschap expected to line up in 4-3-3 and NAC Breda in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward NAC Breda having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

De Graafschap Analysis

De Graafschap sit 18 with 4 points after 6 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 7:18, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through D. Warmerdam (2 goals), J. Kania (2 goals), Bjorn van Zijl (1 goals), with creative support from T. Mero (1 assists), F. de Jong (1 assists), N. Martens (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

NAC Breda Analysis

With 7 points from 6 games and a place of 12, NAC Breda still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 11:14 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on P. Gladon (4 goals), M. Soumano (2 goals), M. Nassoh (2 goals), with creative support from B. Lucassen (2 assists), M. Soumano (1 assists), J. Van Hecke (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, De Graafschap won 6 times, NAC Breda won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:15 from De Graafschap's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93%)
Predicted formations: De Graafschap 4-3-3 / NAC Breda 4-4-2
H2H summary: De Graafschap wins 6, draws 3, NAC Breda wins 5

Standings

Eerste Divisie: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 6 0 0 24:9 15 18
W W W W W
2 6 4 1 1 15:4 11 13
W L W W W
3 6 4 1 1 9:9 0 13
L D W W W
4 6 4 0 2 16:10 6 12
W L W W W
5 6 4 0 2 16:14 2 12
L W L W W
6 8 3 3 2 13:13 0 12
D L W D D
7 6 3 2 1 7:5 2 11
W D D W W
8 6 2 4 0 12:8 4 10
W W D D D
9 6 3 1 2 10:8 2 10
L W W L W
10 8 3 1 4 18:16 2 10
D L W W L
11 6 3 0 3 16:10 6 9
W L W L W
12 6 2 2 2 12:10 2 8
W W L D L
13 6 2 1 3 11:14 -3 7
L L D W L
14 6 2 1 3 8:12 -4 7
W D L L L
15 8 2 1 5 14:18 -4 7
W W D L L
16 8 2 1 5 13:22 -9 7
L L W D W
17 6 1 1 4 10:15 -5 4
L L L W L
18 6 1 1 4 9:18 -9 4
L L L L D
19 6 1 1 4 7:18 -11 4
W L L L L
20 6 1 0 5 5:12 -7 3
L L W L L
Promotion - Eredivisie
Promotion - Eredivisie (Promotion)