🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
25.07.2026 23:30
Audi Field
Referee: S. Boiko
DC United
Match Timeline
Toronto FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
41'
K. Franklin
DC United
🔄
46'
Z. Monlouis ↔ A. Coello
Toronto FC
🟨
53'
Louis Munteanu
DC United
🔄
54'
D. Etienne ↔ D. Mihailovic
Toronto FC
🔄
54'
E. Aristizabal ↔ D. Kerr
Toronto FC
🔄
65'
Peglow ↔ J. Stroud
DC United
🔄
65'
J. Hopkins ↔ M. Peltola
DC United
76'
T. Corbeanu
Toronto FC
🔄
80'
B. Servania ↔ H. Kijima
DC United
🔄
80'
K. Rowles ↔ S. Nealis
DC United
🔄
85'
L. Munteanu ↔ N. Ordaz
DC United
🟨
88'
Jonathan Osorio
Toronto FC
VAR
90+8'
Andre Dozzell
DC United
🔄
90+2'
T. Corbeanu ↔ M. Henry
Toronto FC
90'
T. Baribo
DC United

DC United vs Toronto FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 72.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
72.5%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
DC United Win 48.4%
Draw 24.1%
Toronto FC Win 27.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
DC United1.37
Toronto FC1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
DC United DC United
WWDLW
23 GF / 30 GA
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WLDWL
32 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.21
Average Goals Scored
1.52
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.62
10
BTTS Yes
15
9
Over 2.5
13
4.19
Shots on Goal
4.13

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

DC United DC United 19 matches
Toronto FC Toronto FC 21 matches
DC United Statistic Toronto FC
4 Wins 6
9 Draws 8
6 Losses 7
23 Goals For 32
30 Goals Against 34
1.21 Avg Goals Scored 1.52
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.62
10 BTTS Yes 15
12 Over 1.5 17
9 Over 2.5 13
7 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 4
7 Failed To Score 4
4.19 Shots On Goal 4.13
11.94 Total Shots 11.69
4.56 Corners 5.69
39.5% Ball Possession 47.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Toronto FC. Toronto FC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with DC United expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Toronto FC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Toronto FC having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

DC United Analysis

So far, DC United have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 18 points from 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, while the 21:25 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Louis Munteanu (5 goals), Tai Baribo (5 goals), Jackson Hopkins (2 goals), with creative support from Keisuke Kurokawa (3 assists), João Peglow (2 assists), Silvan Hefti (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Toronto FC Analysis

With 15 points from 15 games and a place of 12, Toronto FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 22:29 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Emilio Aristizábal (3 goals), Dániel Sallói (2 goals), Kobe Franklin (2 goals), with creative support from Dániel Sallói (2 assists), Kobe Franklin (2 assists), Jonathan Osorio (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, DC United won 5 times, Toronto FC won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 32:28 from DC United's perspective. 13 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 14 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75.9%)
Predicted formations: DC United 4-4-2 / Toronto FC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: DC United 2, Toronto FC 5
H2H summary: DC United wins 5, draws 6, Toronto FC wins 4

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 6 3 53:21 32 57
W D L D W
2 26 14 4 8 45:33 12 46
W W W L W
3 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
4 26 12 7 7 47:37 10 43
W D W D W
5 25 11 6 8 45:38 7 39
L L D D D
6 26 10 6 10 50:42 8 36
W W W W W
7 26 10 4 12 46:60 -14 34
L W W W D
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 25 8 9 8 54:61 -7 33
D D L L D
10 26 8 8 10 39:34 5 32
L W L D D
11 25 6 11 8 31:39 -8 29
L D W D L
12 26 6 11 9 39:49 -10 29
L L W D D
13 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
14 26 7 5 14 30:43 -13 26
W D L D L
15 26 5 6 15 31:53 -22 21
L L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)