🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
16.05.2026 23:30
Audi Field
Referee: Rodrigo Albuquerque, USA
DC United
Match Timeline
St. Louis City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
28'
Fallou Fall
St. Louis City
🟨
41'
Conrad Wallem
St. Louis City
50'
C. Durkin · Assist: S. Jeong
St. Louis City
🟨
58'
Miguel Perez
St. Louis City
🟨
60'
Jackson Hopkins
DC United
🔄
62'
M. Peltola ↔ J. Stroud
DC United
🔄
63'
S. Jeong ↔ S. Cordova
St. Louis City
🔄
63'
C. Teuchert ↔ E. Lowen
St. Louis City
🔄
63'
M. Perez ↔ D. Edelman
St. Louis City
🟨
70'
Silvan Hefti
DC United
🔄
78'
K. Kurokawa ↔ C. Antley
DC United
🔄
78'
J. Hopkins ↔ N. Markovic
DC United
🔄
78'
Rafael Santos ↔ T. Totland
St. Louis City
🟨
90+3'
Kye Rowles
DC United
VAR
90+8'
Kye Rowles
DC United
🟨
90+5'
Mamadou Mbacke
St. Louis City
🟨
90+2'
Conrad Wallem
St. Louis City
🟥
90+2'
Conrad Wallem
St. Louis City
🔄
90+1'
S. Becher ↔ M. Mbacke
St. Louis City
90'
Peglow
DC United

DC United vs St. Louis City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
DC United Win 56.2%
Draw 19.5%
St. Louis City Win 24.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
DC United1.31
St. Louis City1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
DC United DC United
WWDLW
17 GF / 24 GA
St. Louis City St. Louis City
WLDWL
16 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.69
7
BTTS Yes
9
8
Over 2.5
7
3.92
Shots on Goal
4.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

DC United DC United 16 matches
St. Louis City St. Louis City 16 matches
DC United Statistic St. Louis City
4 Wins 4
6 Draws 4
6 Losses 8
17 Goals For 16
24 Goals Against 27
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.69
7 BTTS Yes 9
9 Over 1.5 13
8 Over 2.5 7
6 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 2
7 Failed To Score 5
3.92 Shots On Goal 4.25
11.54 Total Shots 13.25
4.54 Corners 6.08
39.2% Ball Possession 48.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward St. Louis City. DC United arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 16 points compared to St. Louis City in 14 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency. St. Louis City arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with DC United expected to line up in 4-4-2 and St. Louis City in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward St. Louis City having the stronger overall control.

DC United Analysis

DC United come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 16 points from 12 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, while the 15:17 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Baribo (6 goals), Louis Munteanu (4 goals), Jackson Hopkins (2 goals), with creative support from Peglow (3 assists), Keisuke Kurokawa (2 assists), S. Hefti (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

St. Louis City Analysis

St. Louis City approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 9 points from 11 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats with a 10:18 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Hartel (3 goals), B. McSorley (1 goals), Christopher Durkin (1 goals), with creative support from S. Becher (3 assists), D. Edelman (2 assists), L. MacNaughton (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, DC United won 0 times, St. Louis City won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:3 from DC United's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.5%)
Predicted formations: DC United 4-4-2 / St. Louis City 3-4-2-1
Missing players: DC United 2, St. Louis City 3
H2H summary: DC United wins 0, draws 2, St. Louis City wins 0

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 9 6 10 46:39 7 33
W W W W D
8 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
9 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)