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14.10.2026 23:30
Audi Field
Referee: G. Gonzales
DC United
Match Timeline
New York Red Bulls
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
5'
T. Baribo
DC United
🟨
19'
Devin Padelford
New York Red Bulls
🟨
22'
Lucas Bartlett
DC United
🟨
29'
Jackson Hopkins
DC United
⚽
45'
S. Hefti · Assist: T. Baribo
DC United
🔄
56'
O. Avilez ↔ J. Stroud
DC United
🔄
56'
J. Hopkins ↔ Peglow
DC United
🔄
57'
J. Che ↔ J. Marshall-Rutty
New York Red Bulls
🔄
57'
C. Cowell ↔ E. M. Choupo-Moting
New York Red Bulls
🔄
57'
J. Ruvalcaba ↔ C. Harper
New York Red Bulls
🔄
57'
A. Mehmeti ↔ E. Forsberg
New York Red Bulls
🟨
67'
Dylan Nealis
New York Red Bulls
🟨
68'
Lucas Bartlett
DC United
🟥
68'
Lucas Bartlett
DC United
🔄
70'
B. Servania ↔ S. Nealis
DC United
⚽
71'
E. M. Choupo-Moting · Assist: E. Forsberg
New York Red Bulls
🟨
73'
Ronald Donkor
New York Red Bulls
🔄
78'
R. Donkor ↔ S. Kone
New York Red Bulls

DC United vs New York Red Bulls Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 68.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
68.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
DC United Win 31.8%
Draw 23.5%
New York Red Bulls Win 44.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
DC United1.44
New York Red Bulls1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
DC United DC United
L L D L D
4 GF / 10 GA
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
W L W W L
6 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.91
17
BTTS Yes
21
17
Over 2.5
22
4.48
Shots on Goal
4.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

DC United DC United 31 matches
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 34 matches
DC United Statistic New York Red Bulls
6 Wins 12
14 Draws 6
11 Losses 16
35 Goals For 51
51 Goals Against 65
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.91
17 BTTS Yes 21
21 Over 1.5 29
17 Over 2.5 22
11 Over 3.5 16
8 Clean Sheets 5
12 Failed To Score 9
4.48 Shots On Goal 4.82
13.26 Total Shots 13.5
4.93 Corners 5.64
38.7% Ball Possession 51.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward New York Red Bulls having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors New York Red Bulls.

DC United Analysis

So far, DC United have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 30 points from 26 matches. The record of 6 wins, 12 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 34:42 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Tai Baribo (9 goals), Louis Munteanu (5 goals), L. Bartlett (4 goals), with creative support from K. Kurokawa (6 assists), Peglow (2 assists), S. Hefti (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

New York Red Bulls Analysis

New York Red Bulls sit 8 with 33 points after 27 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 6 draws, and 12 losses, while the 34:51 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Ruvalcaba (7 goals), Julian Hall (5 goals), Ronald Donkor (2 goals), with creative support from Julian Hall (3 assists), Ronald Donkor (3 assists), E. Forsberg (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, DC United won 3 times, New York Red Bulls won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:29 from DC United's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.5%)
Predicted formations: DC United 4-4-2 / New York Red Bulls 4-3-3
Missing players: DC United 2, New York Red Bulls 1
H2H summary: DC United wins 3, draws 5, New York Red Bulls wins 7

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 23 8 3 71:25 46 77
W W D W D
2 34 16 12 6 80:59 21 60
D W D L W
3 34 18 4 12 55:47 8 58
L L W W W
4 34 16 7 11 64:54 10 55
L W D W L
5 34 15 9 10 66:51 15 54
D W W L D
6 34 14 8 12 66:52 14 50
W L D L D
7 34 14 5 15 59:52 7 47
W W W W W
8 34 13 7 14 63:78 -15 46
W L D D W
9 34 12 10 12 67:75 -8 46
L W D W W
10 34 12 6 16 48:62 -14 42
W L L W L
11 34 10 12 12 49:45 4 42
W D W D D
12 34 9 12 13 52:67 -15 39
L L W L W
13 34 9 6 19 43:60 -17 33
L W L L L
14 34 7 12 15 39:61 -22 33
L L L L L
15 34 6 8 20 37:69 -32 26
L D L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)