🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
12.09.2026 23:30
Audi Field

DC United vs Atlanta United FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 72%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.62
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
72%
1.36
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.53
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.62
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.25
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.00
Probability Distribution
DC United Win 46.9%
Draw 25.1%
Atlanta United FC Win 28%
Expected Goals (xG)
DC United1.37
Atlanta United FC1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
DC United DC United
WWDLW
31 GF / 41 GA
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
WLDWL
37 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
1.32
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
15
BTTS Yes
18
14
Over 2.5
17
4.39
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

DC United DC United 26 matches
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 28 matches
DC United Statistic Atlanta United FC
6 Wins 8
12 Draws 6
8 Losses 14
31 Goals For 37
41 Goals Against 46
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
15 BTTS Yes 18
18 Over 1.5 24
14 Over 2.5 17
9 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 3
9 Failed To Score 9
4.39 Shots On Goal 4
12.52 Total Shots 12.75
4.91 Corners 4.96
38.9% Ball Possession 50.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with DC United expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Atlanta United FC in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atlanta United FC having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Atlanta United FC. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

DC United Analysis

So far, DC United have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 25 points from 22 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 10 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 28:36 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Tai Baribo (7 goals), Louis Munteanu (5 goals), Jackson Hopkins (2 goals), with creative support from Keisuke Kurokawa (4 assists), João Peglow (2 assists), Silvan Hefti (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atlanta United FC Analysis

Atlanta United FC are currently 13 in the standings with 21 points from 22 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 13 losses with goals at 25:38 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Saba Lobzhanidze (2 goals), Miguel Almirón (2 goals), Ajani Fortune (2 goals), with creative support from Aleksey Miranchuk (3 assists), Saba Lobzhanidze (2 assists), Elías Báez (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, DC United won 2 times, Atlanta United FC won 8 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:27 from DC United's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (74.9%)
Predicted formations: DC United 4-4-2 / Atlanta United FC 4-3-3
Missing players: DC United 2, Atlanta United FC 3
H2H summary: DC United wins 2, draws 5, Atlanta United FC wins 8

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 16 5 3 48:19 29 53
L D W W W
2 24 12 8 4 59:44 15 44
D D W L D
3 24 12 4 8 39:30 9 40
W L W D W
4 23 11 6 6 44:33 11 39
D D D D W
5 24 11 6 7 42:33 9 39
W D W W D
6 24 9 4 11 41:56 -15 31
W W D W L
7 23 8 7 8 49:56 -7 31
L L D W D
8 24 8 6 10 41:39 2 30
W W W D D
9 24 7 8 9 37:33 4 29
L D D D L
10 24 6 11 7 38:43 -5 29
W D D W D
11 23 6 10 7 30:37 -7 28
W D L L D
12 24 7 6 11 32:48 -16 27
L D L D L
13 24 6 5 13 35:41 -6 23
L W L L L
14 24 6 4 14 29:43 -14 22
L D L W W
15 24 5 6 13 31:50 -19 21
L L L D W
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)