URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN
05.07.2026 17:00
Referee: M. De Armas
Danubio
Match Timeline
Juventud
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
14'
S. Fernandez ↔ E. Femia
Danubio
🟨
36'
P. Lago
Juventud
🟨
44'
I. Rossi
Danubio
45'
R. Peralta
Juventud
45'
S. Rodriguez
Danubio
🔄
46'
P. Lago ↔ R. Sanchez
Juventud
🔄
67'
B. Larregui ↔ F. Mimbacas
Juventud
🔄
70'
T. Cavanagh ↔ E. Figueroa
Danubio
🔄
70'
E. Cabrera ↔ D. Piriz
Danubio
🔄
77'
S. Rodriguez ↔ J. Millan
Danubio
🔄
77'
A. Alaniz ↔ F. Perez
Juventud
🟨
87'
E. Cecchini
Juventud
🟨
88'
B. Azambuja
Danubio
🔄
88'
R. Peralta ↔ R. Chagas
Juventud
🟨
90'
R. Rabino
Juventud

Danubio vs Juventud Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw
Probability 34.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw
34.4%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
-
Correct Score 2-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Danubio Win 29.3%
Draw 34.4%
Juventud Win 36.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Danubio1.25
Juventud1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Danubio Danubio
WWDLW
19 GF / 26 GA
Juventud Juventud
WLDWL
30 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.54
10
BTTS Yes
16
9
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Danubio Danubio 18 matches
Juventud Juventud 24 matches
Danubio Statistic Juventud
4 Wins 7
7 Draws 5
7 Losses 12
19 Goals For 30
26 Goals Against 37
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.54
10 BTTS Yes 16
14 Over 1.5 17
9 Over 2.5 14
5 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 4.33
0 Total Shots 13.5
0 Corners 4.33
0% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Juventud. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Danubio expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Juventud in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Juventud having the stronger overall control. Danubio have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Danubio Analysis

Danubio approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 19 points from 18 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 19:26 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on E. Cabrera (4 goals), S. Fernandez (4 goals), M. Ferreira (3 goals), with creative support from M. Jourdan (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Juventud Analysis

Juventud approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 18 points from 18 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 22:29, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through F. Mimbacas (6 goals), Alejo Cruz (3 goals), Ramiro Peralta (3 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Danubio won 7 times, Juventud won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:18 from Danubio's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (70.7%)
Predicted formations: Danubio 4-3-3 / Juventud 4-3-1-2
H2H summary: Danubio wins 7, draws 5, Juventud wins 3

Standings

Primera: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 5 4 1 0 11:1 10 13
W D W W W
2 4 4 0 0 11:3 8 12
W W W W
3 5 3 1 1 5:6 -1 10
W D L W W
4 5 2 2 1 6:4 2 8
D W W L D
5 5 2 2 1 6:4 2 8
W L D W D
6 5 2 2 1 5:3 2 8
L W D W D
7 5 2 2 1 6:5 1 8
L D W D W
8 4 2 1 1 6:2 4 7
W L D W
9 5 2 1 2 5:6 -1 7
D W W L L
10 5 2 1 2 6:8 -2 7
L W L D W
11 5 0 4 1 5:6 -1 4
L D D D D
12 5 1 1 3 3:7 -4 4
D L L L W
13 4 1 0 3 1:4 -3 3
W L L L
14 5 0 2 3 0:6 -6 2
L L D D L
15 5 0 2 3 3:10 -7 2
D L D L L
16 4 0 0 4 3:7 -4 0
L L L L
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)