URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: J. Burgos
Danubio
Match Timeline
Club Nacional
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
A. Rogel
Club Nacional
🔄
12'
A. Dos Santos ↔ L. Rodriguez
Club Nacional
🟨
35'
S. Rodriguez
Danubio
🟨
43'
M. Rinaldi
Danubio
🔄
46'
A. Rogel ↔ R. Martinez
Club Nacional
🟨
57'
C. Candido
Club Nacional
🟨
58'
J. Bava
Club Nacional
🔄
63'
C. Candido ↔ N. Rodriguez
Club Nacional
🔄
63'
P. Nunez ↔ B. Barcia
Club Nacional
🔄
66'
L. Sosa ↔ E. Femia
Danubio
🔄
66'
John Kleber ↔ H. Silveira
Danubio
🔄
74'
L. Boggio ↔ M. Silvera
Club Nacional
🟨
75'
E. Velazquez
Danubio
🔄
77'
J. Millan ↔ J. Trasante
Danubio
🔄
88'
E. Cabrera ↔ E. Figueroa
Danubio
🟨
90+5'
M. Rinaldi
Danubio
🟥
90+5'
M. Rinaldi
Danubio

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 75.2%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
75.2%
-
BTTS No
60.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 3-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Danubio Win 26%
Draw 24.8%
Club Nacional Win 49.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Danubio1.19
Club Nacional1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Danubio Danubio
WWDLW
20 GF / 27 GA
Club Nacional Club Nacional
WLDWL
38 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
1.52
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
11
BTTS Yes
14
9
Over 2.5
16
0
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Danubio Danubio 19 matches
Club Nacional Club Nacional 25 matches
Danubio Statistic Club Nacional
4 Wins 12
8 Draws 3
7 Losses 10
20 Goals For 38
27 Goals Against 35
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 1.52
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
11 BTTS Yes 14
15 Over 1.5 19
9 Over 2.5 16
5 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 4
0 Total Shots 9.83
0 Corners 5
0% Ball Possession 39.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Club Nacional's more proactive style and Danubio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Club Nacional look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Club Nacional. Club Nacional carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 31 points while Danubio sit 13 on 19, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Danubio Analysis

Danubio approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 19 points from 18 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 19:26 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on E. Cabrera (4 goals), S. Fernandez (4 goals), M. Ferreira (3 goals), with creative support from M. Jourdan (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Club Nacional Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 31 points from 19 games, Club Nacional bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 10 wins, 1 draws, and 8 defeats, together with goals at 31:26, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Gomez (11 goals), T. Veron (4 goals), Agustín Rogel (2 goals), with creative support from T. Veron (1 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, their record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Danubio won 4 times, Club Nacional won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:21 from Danubio's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75.2%)
Predicted formations: Danubio 4-3-3 / Club Nacional 4-3-3
H2H summary: Danubio wins 4, draws 4, Club Nacional wins 7

Lineups

Danubio
Formation
Club Nacional
M. Goicoechea
M. Goicoechea
F. Balatti
F. Balatti
E. Velazquez
E. Velazquez
M. Rinaldi
M. Rinaldi
T. Cavanagh
T. Cavanagh
J. Millan
J. Millan
S. Rodriguez
S. Rodriguez
E. Cabrera
E. Cabrera
M. Peralta
M. Peralta
John Kleber
John Kleber
L. Sosa
L. Sosa
A. Martin
A. Martin
E. Ancheta
E. Ancheta
S. Coates
S. Coates
A. Rogel
A. Rogel
F. Calvo
F. Calvo
L. Boggio
L. Boggio
B. Zuculini
B. Zuculini
P. Nunez
P. Nunez
A. Dos Santos
A. Dos Santos
C. Candido
C. Candido
M. Gomez
M. Gomez
Danubio 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
M. Goicoechea
18
F. Balatti
2
E. Velazquez
🟨 75'
4
M. Rinaldi
🟨 43' 🟨 90+5' 🟥 90+5'
31
T. Cavanagh
5
J. Millan
↓ 77'
8
S. Rodriguez
🟨 35'
7
E. Cabrera
↓ 88'
10
M. Peralta
11
John Kleber
↓ 66'
6
L. Sosa
↓ 66'
Substitutes
32
K. Martinez
3
J. Pereyra
15
E. Figueroa
↑ 88'
38
J. Trasante
↑ 77'
22
A. Montana
17
A. Velazquez
28
E. Femia
↑ 66'
26
D. Piriz
14
B. Pereira
9
H. Silveira
↑ 66'
Club Nacional 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
22
A. Martin
13
E. Ancheta
4
S. Coates
2
A. Rogel
↓ 46' 🟨 11'
5
F. Calvo
6
L. Boggio
↓ 74'
36
B. Zuculini
18
P. Nunez
↓ 63'
10
A. Dos Santos
↓ 12'
21
C. Candido
↓ 63' 🟨 57'
9
M. Gomez
Substitutes
1
L. Mejia
15
P. Calione
77
N. Rodriguez
↑ 63'
23
L. Rodriguez
↑ 12'
56
J. I. Garcia Lantean
27
T. Veron
31
R. Martinez
↑ 46'
30
B. Barcia
↑ 63'
29
T. Correa
11
M. Silvera
↑ 74'
Last matches: Danubio
24.07.26
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
05.07.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
1
1
D
05.06.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
0
0
D
30.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
1
2
L
18.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
3
L
09.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Albion FC
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
0
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Central Espanol
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
30.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
26.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
1
2
L
16.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
4
1
W
07.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Penarol
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
0
4
L
15.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Boston River
2
0
W
09.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro
1
0
W
Last matches: Club Nacional
17.07.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Wanderers
1
2
L
06.06.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Juventud
2
1
W
31.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
0
3
L
27.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
23.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Albion FC
1
0
W
20.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Universitario
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Atletico Torque
2
1
W
10.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Cerro
4
0
W
07.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
0
3
L
03.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Albion FC
2
3
L
30.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Universitario
2
4
L
25.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Danubio
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Liverpool Montevideo
3
1
W
14.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
3
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
08.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Central Espanol
0
1
L
28.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Atletico Torque
3
2
W
24.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Cerro Largo
3
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
H2H: Danubio vs Club Nacional
11.07.26
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
25.04.26
H2H
Club Nacional
Danubio
1
2
W
12.10.25
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
29.06.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Danubio
3
2
L
13.04.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Danubio
2
0
L
28.11.24
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
13.07.24
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
6
L
25.05.24
H2H
Club Nacional
Danubio
1
0
L
16.11.23
H2H
Club Nacional
Danubio
1
3
W
09.04.23
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
23.10.22
H2H
Club Nacional
Danubio
2
0
L
25.06.22
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
1
L
05.06.22
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
W
13.03.21
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
W
13.09.20
H2H
Club Nacional
Danubio
2
0
L
Last matches: Danubio
05.07.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
1
1
D
30.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
1
2
L
09.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Albion FC
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
26.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
16.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
4
1
W
28.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
15.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Boston River
2
0
W
08.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
26.10.25
Pri
Danubio
CA River Plate
0
1
L
12.10.25
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
28.09.25
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
2
0
W
14.09.25
Pri
Danubio
Cerro
5
1
W
31.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Miramar
2
3
L
10.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
2
1
W
18.11.21
Seg
Danubio
Cerro
0
0
D
27.10.21
Seg
Danubio
Rampla Juniors
2
0
W
13.10.21
Seg
Danubio
Juventud
0
1
L
29.09.21
Seg
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
2
0
W
H2H at home: Danubio
11.07.26
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
12.10.25
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
28.11.24
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
13.07.24
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
6
L
09.04.23
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
25.06.22
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
1
L
05.06.22
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
W
13.03.21
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
W
Last matches: Club Nacional
31.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
0
3
L
15.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Atletico Torque
2
1
W
07.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
0
3
L
03.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Albion FC
2
3
L
30.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Universitario
2
4
L
19.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Liverpool Montevideo
3
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
08.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
28.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Atletico Torque
3
2
W
21.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Juventud
1
3
L
21.02.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Progreso
1
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Boston River
2
1
W
23.11.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Penarol
2
2
D
09.11.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
01.11.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Cerro
0
0
D
26.10.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Wanderers
0
0
D
12.10.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Danubio
0
0
D
28.09.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Juventud
0
0
D
14.09.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Plaza Colonia
2
1
W
H2H away: Club Nacional
11.07.26
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
12.10.25
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
28.11.24
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
13.07.24
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
6
W
09.04.23
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
25.06.22
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
1
W
05.06.22
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
L
13.03.21
H2H
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
L

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D D D D
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
L D W W D
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
L D W L L
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D W L W
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
L D D W L
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W W L W W
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
L D W L W
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D D D L
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
W L D W D
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W W D W D
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L D D D L
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
W D D W W
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L D D L L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W L D L L
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
W L L W L
16 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
W W L L W