04.10.2026 13:00
Gardens of the Hippodrome
Referee: Hernan Heras
Danubio
Live Timeline
Cerro Largo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
1'
Danubio
Danubio

Danubio vs Cerro Largo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 77.6%
Odds 1.73
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.60
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
77.6%
1.73 ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.60 ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.15 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
4.75 ▥
Correct Score 1-1
-
6.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Danubio Win 22.4%
Draw 27.6%
Cerro Largo Win 50%
Expected Goals (xG)
Danubio0.93
Cerro Largo1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Danubio Danubio
WWDLW
24 GF / 39 GA
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
WLDWL
28 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
0.8
Average Goals Scored
0.93
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
14
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Danubio Danubio 30 matches
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 30 matches
Danubio Statistic Cerro Largo
4 Wins 8
14 Draws 9
12 Losses 13
24 Goals For 28
39 Goals Against 34
0.8 Avg Goals Scored 0.93
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
14 BTTS Yes 12
19 Over 1.5 20
11 Over 2.5 9
7 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 8
14 Failed To Score 12
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cerro Largo. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Cerro Largo arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Danubio expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Cerro Largo in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cerro Largo having the stronger overall control.

Danubio Analysis

Danubio sit 16 with 26 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 14 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 24:38 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cerro Largo Analysis

Cerro Largo sit 11 with 33 points after 30 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 28:34, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Danubio won 0 times, Cerro Largo won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:5 from Danubio's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (77.6%)
Predicted formations: Danubio 3-5-2 / Cerro Largo 4-3-3
H2H summary: Danubio wins 0, draws 3, Cerro Largo wins 2

Standings

Primera: Torneo Intermedio
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 4 3 0 12:4 8 15
W W W D W
1 7 5 1 1 12:3 9 16
W W D W L
2 7 4 1 2 8:8 0 13
W L D W L
2 7 3 2 2 7:5 2 11
L W D D W
3 7 2 4 1 4:3 1 10
W L D D D
3 7 3 3 1 12:6 6 12
D L D W W
4 7 2 3 2 5:5 0 9
D W L D W
4 7 4 0 3 11:11 0 12
L W W L W
5 7 2 3 2 4:4 0 9
D L D D W
5 7 2 2 3 8:11 -3 8
D W L D L
6 7 3 0 4 6:10 -4 9
L W W L L
6 7 1 3 3 6:8 -2 6
D L D W L
7 7 1 3 3 6:9 -3 6
W L D D D
7 7 2 0 5 6:11 -5 6
L W L L W
8 7 1 2 4 5:10 -5 5
L L D D L
8 7 0 4 3 5:9 -4 4
D L D D D
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs: Final)