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24.10.2026 15:30
La Portada
Referee: Mathias Riquelme
D. La Serena
Match Timeline
Concepción
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Y. Rodríguez
Concepción
⚽
15'
Matías Marín
D. La Serena
🟨
20'
Francis Mac Allister
D. La Serena
⚽
21'
Jorge Henríquez
Concepción
🟨
21'
Jeisson Vargas
D. La Serena
⚽
37'
Matías Marín · Assist: Rafael Delgado
D. La Serena
🟨
39'
Ariel Cáceres
Concepción
🟥
41'
Y. Rodríguez
Concepción
🟨
42'
Matías Marín
D. La Serena
🟨
45+2'
Fausto Grillo
Concepción
🔄
45'
Aldrix Jara ↔ Misael Dávila
Concepción
🟨
57'
Diego Rubio
D. La Serena
🔄
65'
Francis Mac Allister ↔ Sebastián Díaz
D. La Serena
🔄
72'
Jorge Henríquez ↔ Diego Acosta
Concepción
🔄
72'
Mario Sandoval ↔ Cristian Riquelme
Concepción
VAR
81'
Lucas Alarcon
D. La Serena
⚽
84'
Jeisson Vargas
D. La Serena
🔄
85'
Yahir Salazar ↔ Matias Pinto
D. La Serena
🔄
86'
Diego Rubio ↔ Matías Pérez
D. La Serena
🔄
90+1'
Ethan Espinoza ↔ Joaquín Montecinos
Concepción
🔄
90+1'
Joaquín Larrivey ↔ Carlos Escobar
Concepción
🔄
90+2'
Matías Marín ↔ Ángelo Henríquez
D. La Serena
🔄
90+2'
G. Figueroa ↔ Milovan Joseph Velásquez Blaset
D. La Serena

D. La Serena vs Concepción Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
D. La Serena Win 25%
Draw 9.6%
Concepción Win 65.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
D. La Serena1.31
Concepción1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
D. La Serena D. La Serena
L L W W D
8 GF / 10 GA
Concepción Concepción
D L L W W
7 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.23
1.74
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
18
BTTS Yes
13
18
Over 2.5
11
4.46
Shots on Goal
3.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

D. La Serena D. La Serena 31 matches
Concepción Concepción 35 matches
D. La Serena Statistic Concepción
9 Wins 15
10 Draws 6
12 Losses 14
45 Goals For 43
54 Goals Against 38
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.23
1.74 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
18 BTTS Yes 13
22 Over 1.5 27
18 Over 2.5 11
13 Over 3.5 4
8 Clean Sheets 12
7 Failed To Score 10
4.46 Shots On Goal 3.83
11.63 Total Shots 13.33
3.88 Corners 4.42
47.2% Ball Possession 46.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Concepción. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with D. La Serena expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Concepción in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Concepción having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

D. La Serena Analysis

From their first 24 matches, D. La Serena have collected 30 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 9 draws, and 8 losses, while the 36:41 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Vargas (5 goals), F. Chamorro (5 goals), M. Marín (3 goals), with creative support from J. Vargas (5 assists), F. Chamorro (2 assists), B. Gutiérrez (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Concepción Analysis

So far, Concepción have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 32 points from 24 matches. The record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 26:27 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Larrivey (7 goals), C. Waterman (5 goals), L. Rojas (3 goals), with creative support from J. Henríquez (2 assists), Y. Oyanedel (2 assists), L. Valencia (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, D. La Serena won 0 times, Concepción won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:3 from D. La Serena's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.4%)
Predicted formations: D. La Serena 3-4-3 / Concepción 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: D. La Serena wins 0, draws 1, Concepción wins 0

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 18 4 4 57:29 28 58
W D L D D
2 26 14 6 6 45:21 24 48
L W W W W
3 26 14 4 8 53:37 16 46
W D L W W
4 26 12 4 10 48:37 11 40
W W D L W
5 26 11 7 8 43:33 10 40
D L W W L
6 26 11 5 10 39:37 2 38
L D D L W
7 25 10 5 10 38:35 3 35
W L W L L
8 26 10 5 11 28:30 -2 35
W L D D L
9 26 9 8 9 30:39 -9 35
L W L L L
10 26 8 10 8 39:42 -3 34
D W L L W
11 25 9 6 10 34:40 -6 33
D D W W D
12 26 9 4 13 30:39 -9 31
W D L L W
13 26 7 9 10 28:35 -7 30
L D D W W
14 26 7 6 13 38:48 -10 27
D D D W L
15 26 6 5 15 19:47 -28 23
L L D L L
16 26 5 6 15 23:43 -20 21
L W D W L