PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 85.1%
Odds 1.58
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.85
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
85.1%
1.58
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.85
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.8%
1.49
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.40
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Cusco Win 85.1%
Draw 6%
UTC Cajamarca Win 8.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cusco1.29
UTC Cajamarca1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cusco Cusco
WWDLW
31 GF / 40 GA
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca
WLDWL
24 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1.54
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
16
BTTS Yes
12
14
Over 2.5
10
4.2
Shots on Goal
4.37

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cusco Cusco 26 matches
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 21 matches
Cusco Statistic UTC Cajamarca
9 Wins 5
5 Draws 8
12 Losses 8
31 Goals For 24
40 Goals Against 30
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1.54 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
16 BTTS Yes 12
19 Over 1.5 16
14 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 6
4.2 Shots On Goal 4.37
11.36 Total Shots 12.16
3.56 Corners 4.68
54.9% Ball Possession 51.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cusco expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and UTC Cajamarca in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward UTC Cajamarca having the stronger overall control. UTC Cajamarca arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors UTC Cajamarca. Cusco arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 30 points compared to UTC Cajamarca in 18 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Cusco Analysis

Cusco are currently 6 in the standings with 30 points from 18 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, while the 25:25 goal ratio supports the view of good form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on Iván Colman (3 goals), Facundo Callejo (3 goals), José Miguel Manzaneda (2 goals), with creative support from Iván Colman (2 assists), Facundo Callejo (2 assists), José Miguel Manzaneda (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

UTC Cajamarca Analysis

UTC Cajamarca sit 18 with 13 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 22:29 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Marcos Lliuya (2 goals), Abdiel Arroyo (2 goals), Adolfo Muñoz (1 goals), with creative support from Marcos Lliuya (2 assists), Adolfo Muñoz (2 assists), Michel Rasmussen (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Cusco won 2 times, UTC Cajamarca won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:11 from Cusco's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.22 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94%)
Predicted formations: Cusco 4-1-4-1 / UTC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cusco wins 2, draws 3, UTC Cajamarca wins 4
Last matches: Cusco
25.07.26
Pri
Cusco
Universitario
1
2
L
18.07.26
Pri
Cusco
Alianza Atletico
4
1
W
30.05.26
Pri
Cusco
ADT
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Cusco
Flamengo
0
3
L
23.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
21.05.26
CON
Cusco
Independiente Medellin
2
3
L
17.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Sport Boys
0
1
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
1
D
06.05.26
CON
Cusco
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Sporting Cristal
2
2
D
01.05.26
CON
Cusco
Independiente Medellin
0
1
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cusco
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
22.04.26
Pri
Cusco
FC Cajamarca
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Cusco
Alianza Lima
0
8
L
14.04.26
CON
Cusco
Estudiantes L.P.
1
2
L
09.04.26
CON
Cusco
Flamengo
0
2
L
04.04.26
Pri
Cusco
FBC Melgar
3
1
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cusco
UCV Moquegua
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
Cusco
Cienciano
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cusco
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
Last matches: UTC Cajamarca
26.07.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
UCV Moquegua
0
0
D
18.07.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Atletico Grau
1
3
L
31.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2
2
D
23.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Sport Boys
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
2
L
08.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
FC Cajamarca
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
0
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Cienciano
2
2
D
19.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal
2
3
L
15.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Sport Huancayo
2
2
D
05.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
1
2
L
22.03.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Universitario
0
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
2
1
W
28.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
ADT
2
2
D
13.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Cusco
1
0
W
06.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
UCV Moquegua
3
2
W
30.01.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Atletico Grau
2
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
UTC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
1
1
D
H2H: Cusco vs UTC Cajamarca
13.02.26
H2H
UTC Cajamarca
Cusco
1
0
L
04.08.25
H2H
UTC Cajamarca
Cusco
1
2
W
01.03.25
H2H
Cusco
UTC Cajamarca
1
1
D
19.07.24
H2H
UTC Cajamarca
Cusco
2
1
L
02.02.24
H2H
Cusco
UTC Cajamarca
1
1
D
26.06.23
H2H
Cusco
UTC Cajamarca
2
1
W
27.03.23
H2H
UTC Cajamarca
Cusco
0
0
D
13.08.21
H2H
UTC Cajamarca
Cusco
2
1
L
02.08.20
H2H
Cusco
UTC Cajamarca
0
0
D
17.02.20
H2H
UTC Cajamarca
Cusco
2
1
L
Last matches: Cusco
18.07.26
Pri
Cusco
Alianza Atletico
4
1
W
23.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
21.05.26
CON
Cusco
Independiente Medellin
2
3
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cusco
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
1
D
06.05.26
CON
Cusco
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
26.04.26
Pri
Cusco
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
22.04.26
Pri
Cusco
FC Cajamarca
1
0
W
09.04.26
CON
Cusco
Flamengo
0
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
Cusco
Cienciano
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cusco
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pri
Cusco
Comerciantes Unidos
3
1
W
08.02.26
Pri
Cusco
Universitario
1
1
D
H2H at home: Cusco
01.03.25
H2H
Cusco
UTC Cajamarca
1
1
D
02.02.24
H2H
Cusco
UTC Cajamarca
1
1
D
26.06.23
H2H
Cusco
UTC Cajamarca
2
1
W
02.08.20
H2H
Cusco
UTC Cajamarca
0
0
D
Last matches: UTC Cajamarca
18.07.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Atletico Grau
1
3
L
31.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2
2
D
17.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
0
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal
2
3
L
05.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Universitario
0
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
2
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
ADT
2
2
D
06.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
UCV Moquegua
3
2
W
21.01.26
Fri
UTC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
1
0
W
H2H away: UTC Cajamarca
01.03.25
H2H
Cusco
UTC Cajamarca
1
1
D
02.02.24
H2H
Cusco
UTC Cajamarca
1
1
D
26.06.23
H2H
Cusco
UTC Cajamarca
2
1
L
02.08.20
H2H
Cusco
UTC Cajamarca
0
0
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.20
Draw 3.85
Home 1.58
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.03
Draw 2.26
Home 2.07
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.75 1.33
Over 2.0 1.41
Over 2.25 1.63
Over 2.5 1.85
Over 2.75 2.07
Over 3.0 2.46
Over 3.25 2.78
Under 1.75 3.11
Under 2.0 2.74
Under 2.25 2.22
Under 2.5 1.94
Under 2.75 1.72
Under 3.0 1.50
Under 3.25 1.40
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 3.90
Home 1.57
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 2.30
Home 2.10
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 2.60
Home 1.91
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.25
Over 2.5 1.80
Over 3.5 3.00
Over 4.5 6.00
Over 5.5 13.00
Over 6.5 26.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 12.00
Under 1.5 3.75
Under 2.5 2.00
Under 3.5 1.36
Under 4.5 1.12
Under 5.5 1.04
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.53
Draw 3.90
Home 1.57
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.72
Draw 2.33
Home 2.06
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.59
Draw 2.60
Home 1.90
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.0 1.05
Over 1.25 1.16
Over 1.5 1.24
Over 1.75 1.32
Over 2.0 1.39
Over 2.25 1.61
Over 2.5 1.81
Over 2.75 2.02
Over 3.0 2.37
Over 3.25 2.70
Over 3.5 3.00
Over 3.75 3.60
Over 4.0 4.60
Over 4.25 4.40
Over 4.5 5.80
Over 5.0 8.90
Over 5.5 11.50
Over 6.5 26.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.0 7.40
Under 1.25 4.60
Under 1.5 3.50
Under 1.75 3.12
Under 2.0 2.70
Under 2.25 2.18
Under 2.5 1.90
Under 2.75 1.71
Under 3.0 1.51
Under 3.25 1.41
Under 3.5 1.33
Under 3.75 1.25
Under 4.0 1.15
Under 4.25 1.17
Under 4.5 1.09
Under 5.0 1.02
Under 5.5 1.04
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.10
Draw 4.10
Home 1.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.60
Draw 2.43
Home 1.98
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.80
Home 1.84
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.21
Over 2.0 1.32
Over 2.25 1.50
Over 2.5 1.70
Over 2.75 1.88
Over 3.0 2.18
Over 3.25 2.48
Over 3.5 2.75
Over 3.75 3.30
Over 4.0 4.30
Over 4.25 4.60
Over 4.5 4.90
Over 4.75 5.00
Over 5.0 6.50
Under 1.5 3.80
Under 2.0 3.00
Under 2.25 2.33
Under 2.5 2.00
Under 2.75 1.79
Under 3.0 1.58
Under 3.25 1.46
Under 3.5 1.38
Under 3.75 1.27
Under 4.0 1.17
Under 4.25 1.15
Under 4.5 1.13
Under 4.75 1.12
Under 5.0 1.07

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
D W D W W
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
L W D L W
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
L L W D L
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
W W W D L
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
W W W D W
6
Cusco Home
17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
L W W W L
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
W L W D W
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
W L L D W
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
D D L D L
10 17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
L L L L W
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
W L W D W
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
L W L W L
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
D L D D L
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
D D L D L
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
L D D D W
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
L W W L W
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
W L L D L
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
W D L D L
Play-offs