05.09.2026 23:00
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Referee: Micke Palomino, Peru
Cusco
Match Timeline
UCV Moquegua
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
F. Callejo
Cusco
🔄
46'
A. Lecaros ↔ A. Davila
UCV Moquegua
🔄
60'
D. Soto ↔ C. Diez
Cusco
🔄
60'
N. Silva ↔ J. Manzaneda
Cusco
🔄
68'
C. Mejia ↔ Y. Lopez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
68'
E. Lastre ↔ J. Collazos
UCV Moquegua
🔄
69'
L. Colitto ↔ J. Tevez
Cusco
🔄
78'
C. Ramirez ↔ N. Chavez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
80'
I. Colman ↔ Miguel Silveira
Cusco
🔄
80'
F. Callejo ↔ Herrera Joel
Cusco
🟨
82'
Aldair Perleche
UCV Moquegua
🟨
82'
Cristian Enciso
UCV Moquegua
83'
R. Lagos
Cusco
🔄
90+1'
Bryan Angulo ↔ E. M. Santillan Vargas
UCV Moquegua

Cusco vs UCV Moquegua Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.3%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.65
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.3%
1.30
BTTS Yes
58.8%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.65
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
82.7%
1.22
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.83
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Cusco Win 76.3%
Draw 4.6%
UCV Moquegua Win 19.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cusco1.35
UCV Moquegua1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cusco Cusco
WWDLW
41 GF / 49 GA
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
WLDWL
23 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
0.92
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
20
BTTS Yes
11
18
Over 2.5
13
4.13
Shots on Goal
3.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cusco Cusco 31 matches
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 25 matches
Cusco Statistic UCV Moquegua
12 Wins 6
5 Draws 7
14 Losses 12
41 Goals For 23
49 Goals Against 35
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
20 BTTS Yes 11
24 Over 1.5 17
18 Over 2.5 13
9 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 11
4.13 Shots On Goal 3.33
11.43 Total Shots 10.08
3.67 Corners 3.17
54.9% Ball Possession 39.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward UCV Moquegua. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Cusco have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cusco expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and UCV Moquegua in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward UCV Moquegua having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Cusco Analysis

Cusco sit 7 with 36 points after 23 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 34:35, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Facundo Callejo (5 goals), Iván Colman (3 goals), José Miguel Manzaneda (2 goals), with creative support from Lucas Colitto (4 assists), Facundo Callejo (2 assists), Iván Colman (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

So far, UCV Moquegua have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 25 points from 23 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, while the 22:29 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Edgar Lastre (6 goals), Jeferson Collazos (3 goals), Cristian Mejia (2 goals), with creative support from Yorman Zapata (4 assists), Edgar Lastre (3 assists), Nicolas Amasifuen (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Cusco won 1 times, UCV Moquegua won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Cusco's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Cusco 4-1-4-1 / UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cusco wins 1, draws 0, UCV Moquegua wins 0

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5
Cusco Home
26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2