PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
22.04.2026 23:00
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Referee: W. Guadalupe
Cusco
Match Timeline
FC Cajamarca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
21'
Hairo Timaná
FC Cajamarca
🟨
28'
Aldair Fuentes
Cusco
🔄
33'
S. Peralta ↔ H. Barcos
FC Cajamarca
🟨
58'
Jefferson Orejuela
FC Cajamarca
🔄
58'
J. Tevez ↔ F. Callejo
Cusco
🔄
58'
L. Colitto ↔ J. Manzaneda
Cusco
🔄
58'
J. Bolivar ↔ M. Ruidias
Cusco
🔄
61'
M. Arrasco ↔ E. Paucar
FC Cajamarca
72'
F. Callejo
Cusco
🔄
73'
I. Colman ↔ G. Carabajal
Cusco
🔄
80'
N. Silva ↔ D. Soto
Cusco
🔄
83'
H. Timana ↔ B. Palacios
FC Cajamarca

Cusco vs FC Cajamarca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 98.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
98.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Cusco Win 98.3%
Draw 0%
FC Cajamarca Win 1.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cusco1.38
FC Cajamarca1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cusco Cusco
WWDLW
14 GF / 23 GA
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca
WLDWL
14 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.77
Average Goals Conceded
1.82
8
BTTS Yes
6
7
Over 2.5
6
4.08
Shots on Goal
2.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cusco Cusco 13 matches
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 11 matches
Cusco Statistic FC Cajamarca
4 Wins 2
2 Draws 3
7 Losses 6
14 Goals For 14
23 Goals Against 20
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.77 Avg Goals Conceded 1.82
8 BTTS Yes 6
10 Over 1.5 8
7 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 4
1 Clean Sheets 0
4 Failed To Score 5
4.08 Shots On Goal 2.4
11.5 Total Shots 7.1
3.25 Corners 2.8
57.3% Ball Possession 40.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Cusco's more proactive style and FC Cajamarca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FC Cajamarca having the stronger overall control. FC Cajamarca arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FC Cajamarca. Cusco arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 11 with 13 points compared to FC Cajamarca in 18 on 6, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cusco Analysis

So far, Cusco have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 13 points from 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, while the 12:10 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Facundo Callejo (6 goals), G. Carabajal (2 goals), Iván Colman (1 goals), with creative support from J. Manzaneda (2 assists), M. Ruidias (2 assists), J. Bolivar (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

FC Cajamarca Analysis

FC Cajamarca sit 18 with 6 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 10:17 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on H. Barcos (7 goals), A. Rodriguez (2 goals), B. Palacios (1 goals), with creative support from T. Andrade (3 assists), H. Barcos (1 assists), A. Rodriguez (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Cusco 4-2-3-1 / FC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 15 7 2 40:15 25 52
L D W D W
2 24 13 6 5 39:24 15 45
W W W D L
3 24 12 6 6 31:21 10 42
W W D W W
4 24 12 5 7 34:37 -3 41
L L L D W
5 24 11 6 7 40:28 12 39
L D W L D
6
Cusco Home
24 12 3 9 36:36 0 39
W L W L W
7 24 11 4 9 39:35 4 37
L L D L W
8 24 9 7 8 34:29 5 34
W W D W L
9 24 9 7 8 26:23 3 34
W W D D W
10 24 8 5 11 38:38 0 29
L L W D W
11 24 7 8 9 32:33 -1 29
L W L W L
12 24 8 5 11 20:23 -3 29
W W W D L
13 24 7 6 11 35:50 -15 27
W W L D L
14 24 7 5 12 31:41 -10 26
W L L D W
15 24 6 7 11 23:33 -10 25
L W D L D
16 24 6 6 12 36:44 -8 24
W L L W L
17 24 5 7 12 27:36 -9 22
L L D D L
18 24 4 8 12 27:42 -15 15
L L L D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2