BRAZIL › SERIE B
16.05.2026 23:30
Arena Pantanal
Referee: B. Vasconcelos
Cuiaba
Match Timeline
Novorizontino
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
45+3'
Gabriel Knesowitsch
Cuiaba
🟨
45+1'
Robson
Novorizontino
🔄
46'
Gabriel Knesowitsch ↔ Y. Asad
Cuiaba
🔄
60'
Cesar Augusto ↔ Jordi
Novorizontino
🔄
60'
Romulo ↔ Tavinho
Novorizontino
🔄
61'
Kauan Cristtyan ↔ Mateus Santos
Cuiaba
🟨
66'
David
Cuiaba
🔄
76'
Rodrigo Rodrigues ↔ Vinicius Peixoto
Cuiaba
🔄
76'
Matheus Bianqui ↔ Marlon
Novorizontino
🔄
76'
Robson ↔ Carlao
Novorizontino
🟨
77'
Vinicius Peixoto
Cuiaba
🔄
85'
Juninho ↔ C. Ortiz
Novorizontino
🟨
90+4'
Maykon Jesus
Novorizontino

Cuiaba vs Novorizontino Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
64.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cuiaba Win 17.8%
Draw 17.8%
Novorizontino Win 64.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cuiaba0.75
Novorizontino1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cuiaba Cuiaba
WWDLW
4 GF / 4 GA
Novorizontino Novorizontino
WLDWL
11 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
0.5
Average Goals Scored
1.38
0.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
2
BTTS Yes
4
0
Over 2.5
4
3.38
Shots on Goal
4.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cuiaba Cuiaba 8 matches
Novorizontino Novorizontino 8 matches
Cuiaba Statistic Novorizontino
1 Wins 3
6 Draws 3
1 Losses 2
4 Goals For 11
4 Goals Against 9
0.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
0.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
2 BTTS Yes 4
4 Over 1.5 5
0 Over 2.5 4
0 Over 3.5 2
5 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 2
3.38 Shots On Goal 4.25
11 Total Shots 13.25
2.63 Corners 6
46.4% Ball Possession 47.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Novorizontino's more proactive style and Cuiaba's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Novorizontino. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cuiaba expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Novorizontino in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Novorizontino having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Novorizontino carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 12 points while Cuiaba sit 16 on 9, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cuiaba Analysis

Cuiaba approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 9 points from 8 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 6 draws, and 1 defeats with a 4:4 goal balance points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they depend heavily on Hernandes (2 goals), Eric (1 goals), Joao Basso (1 goals), with creative support from Hernandes (1 assists), Eliel (1 assists), Pepê (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Novorizontino Analysis

Novorizontino are currently 6 in the standings with 12 points from 8 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while the 11:9 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Robson (3 goals), Carlao (2 goals), Tavinho (2 goals), with creative support from Romulo (3 assists), Juninho (3 assists), Robson (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Cuiaba won 0 times, Novorizontino won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:4 from Cuiaba's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (82.3%)
Predicted formations: Cuiaba 3-4-2-1 / Novorizontino 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cuiaba wins 0, draws 1, Novorizontino wins 2

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 29 13 8 8 41:36 5 47
W D W W D
6 29 13 8 8 28:27 1 47
L L L W L
7 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
8 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 10 13 6 30:22 8 43
W D W L W
11 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
12 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
13 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
14 29 10 8 11 35:36 -1 38
L D L W W
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation