BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Arena Pantanal
Referee: Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos, Brazil
Cuiaba
Match Timeline
Novorizontino
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
45+3'
Gabriel Knesowitsch
Cuiaba
🟨
45+1'
Robson
Novorizontino
🔄
46'
Gabriel Knesowitsch ↔ Y. Asad
Cuiaba
🔄
60'
Cesar Augusto ↔ Jordi
Novorizontino
🔄
60'
Romulo ↔ Tavinho
Novorizontino
🔄
61'
Kauan Cristtyan ↔ Mateus Santos
Cuiaba
🟨
66'
David
Cuiaba
🔄
76'
Rodrigo Rodrigues ↔ Vinicius Peixoto
Cuiaba
🔄
76'
Matheus Bianqui ↔ Marlon
Novorizontino
🔄
76'
Robson ↔ Carlao
Novorizontino
🟨
77'
Vinicius Peixoto
Cuiaba
🔄
85'
Juninho ↔ C. Ortiz
Novorizontino
🟨
90+4'
Maykon Jesus
Novorizontino

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
64.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.8%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cuiaba Win 17.8%
Draw 17.8%
Novorizontino Win 64.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cuiaba0.75
Novorizontino1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cuiaba Cuiaba
WWDLW
4 GF / 4 GA
Novorizontino Novorizontino
WLDWL
11 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
0.5
Average Goals Scored
1.38
0.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
2
BTTS Yes
4
0
Over 2.5
4
3.38
Shots on Goal
4.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cuiaba Cuiaba 8 matches
Novorizontino Novorizontino 8 matches
Cuiaba Statistic Novorizontino
1 Wins 3
6 Draws 3
1 Losses 2
4 Goals For 11
4 Goals Against 9
0.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
0.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
2 BTTS Yes 4
4 Over 1.5 5
0 Over 2.5 4
0 Over 3.5 2
5 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 2
3.38 Shots On Goal 4.25
11 Total Shots 13.25
2.63 Corners 6
46.4% Ball Possession 47.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Novorizontino's more proactive style and Cuiaba's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Novorizontino. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cuiaba expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Novorizontino in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Novorizontino having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Novorizontino carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 12 points while Cuiaba sit 16 on 9, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cuiaba Analysis

Cuiaba approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 9 points from 8 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 6 draws, and 1 defeats with a 4:4 goal balance points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they depend heavily on Hernandes (2 goals), Eric (1 goals), Joao Basso (1 goals), with creative support from Hernandes (1 assists), Eliel (1 assists), Pepê (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Novorizontino Analysis

Novorizontino are currently 6 in the standings with 12 points from 8 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while the 11:9 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Robson (3 goals), Carlao (2 goals), Tavinho (2 goals), with creative support from Romulo (3 assists), Juninho (3 assists), Robson (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Cuiaba won 0 times, Novorizontino won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:4 from Cuiaba's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (82.3%)
Predicted formations: Cuiaba 3-4-2-1 / Novorizontino 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cuiaba wins 0, draws 1, Novorizontino wins 2
Stats
Cuiaba Cuiaba
Novorizontino Novorizontino
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
2
8 Corner Kicks 4
14 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 0
60% Ball Possession 40%
22 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Goal 3
7 Shots off Goal 5
7 Blocked Shots 2
15 Shots insidebox 6
7 Shots outsidebox 4
3 Goalkeeper Saves 8
367 Total passes 250
296 Passes accurate 179
1.56 expected_goals 0.83
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Cuiaba
Formation
Novorizontino
Marcelo Carne
Marcelo Carne
Gabriel Knesowitsch
Gabriel Knesowitsch
Joao Basso
Joao Basso
Marlon
Marlon
Nino Paraiba
Nino Paraiba
Raul
Raul
Calebe Costa
Calebe Costa
Weverson
Weverson
Kauan Cristtyan
Kauan Cristtyan
David Miguel
David Miguel
Rodrigo Rodrigues
Rodrigo Rodrigues
Cesar Augusto
Cesar Augusto
N. Castrillon
N. Castrillon
Carlinhos
Carlinhos
Patrick
Patrick
Maykon Jesus
Maykon Jesus
Juninho
Juninho
Leo Naldi
Leo Naldi
Matheus Bianqui
Matheus Bianqui
Romulo
Romulo
Vinicius Paiva
Vinicius Paiva
Robson
Robson
Cuiaba 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
31
Marcelo Carne
G
44
Gabriel Knesowitsch
↓ 46' 🟨 45+3'
D
13
Joao Basso
D
6
Marlon
D
2
Nino Paraiba
M
30
Raul
M
5
Calebe Costa
M
53
Weverson
M
41
Kauan Cristtyan
↓ 61'
F
88
David Miguel
🟨 66'
F
27
Rodrigo Rodrigues
↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
1
Joao Carlos
G
91
Luis Soares
D
99
Nathan Cruz
F
7
Y. Asad
↑ 46'
F
19
Mateus Santos
↑ 61'
F
37
Raylan
M
17
Victor Barbara
M
29
Vinicius Peixoto
↑ 76' 🟨 77'
F
50
P. Felipetto Colen Barcellos
M
Novorizontino 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
31
Cesar Augusto
↓ 60'
G
20
N. Castrillon
D
3
Carlinhos
D
4
Patrick
D
66
Maykon Jesus
🟨 90+4'
D
50
Juninho
↓ 85'
M
18
Leo Naldi
M
17
Matheus Bianqui
↓ 76'
M
10
Romulo
↓ 60'
M
16
Vinicius Paiva
M
11
Robson
↓ 76' 🟨 45+1'
F
Substitutes
93
Jordi
↑ 60'
G
33
Renato Palm
D
19
Diego Galo
M
15
Tavinho
↑ 60'
F
21
Kauan Alemao
D
8
C. Ortiz
↑ 85'
F
28
Marlon
↑ 76'
M
77
Helio Borges
F
22
Ivan Alvarino
M
9
Carlao
↑ 76'
F
7
Ronald Barcellos
F
Last matches: Cuiaba
21.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Avai
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Vila Nova
1
0
W
09.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Ponte Preta
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
CRB
2
0
W
22.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Athletic Club
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Criciuma
1
1
D
23.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Goias
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Operario-PR
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Ceara
0
2
L
31.03.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
0
0
D
21.03.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Sport Recife
0
0
D
Last matches: Novorizontino
14.06.26
Ser
Novorizontino
Nautico Recife
2
2
D
10.06.26
Ser
Novorizontino
Goias
4
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Novorizontino
São Bernardo
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Novorizontino
Ceara
2
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Novorizontino
Botafogo SP
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Novorizontino
Avai
3
3
D
25.04.26
Ser
Novorizontino
Sport Recife
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Novorizontino
Athletic Club
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Novorizontino
America Mineiro
3
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Novorizontino
CRB
1
1
D
31.03.26
Ser
Novorizontino
Juventude
0
0
D
22.03.26
Ser
Novorizontino
Londrina
1
3
L
H2H: Cuiaba vs Novorizontino
16.05.26
H2H
Cuiaba
Novorizontino
0
0
D
08.10.25
H2H
Cuiaba
Novorizontino
0
1
L
15.06.25
H2H
Novorizontino
Cuiaba
3
0
L
Last matches: Cuiaba
14.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Vila Nova
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
CRB
2
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Criciuma
1
1
D
23.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Ceara
0
2
L
21.03.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Sport Recife
0
0
D
H2H at home: Cuiaba
16.05.26
H2H
Cuiaba
Novorizontino
0
0
D
08.10.25
H2H
Cuiaba
Novorizontino
0
1
L
Last matches: Novorizontino
10.06.26
Ser
Novorizontino
Goias
4
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Novorizontino
São Bernardo
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Novorizontino
Avai
3
3
D
25.04.26
Ser
Novorizontino
Sport Recife
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Novorizontino
America Mineiro
3
0
W
31.03.26
Ser
Novorizontino
Juventude
0
0
D
H2H away: Novorizontino
16.05.26
H2H
Cuiaba
Novorizontino
0
0
D
08.10.25
H2H
Cuiaba
Novorizontino
0
1
W

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 8 4 2 22:15 7 28
W L W W W
2 14 7 4 3 20:11 9 25
L D W D W
3 14 6 7 1 17:9 8 25
D D D W W
4 14 6 4 4 14:8 6 22
W W L W L
5 14 6 4 4 18:17 1 22
W L W W D
6 14 6 4 4 16:15 1 22
D L W L W
7 13 5 6 2 20:13 7 21
D W D W D
8 13 5 6 2 15:11 4 21
D W W D D
9 14 6 2 6 21:18 3 20
L D L L W
10 14 4 7 3 9:7 2 19
L W W W L
11 14 4 7 3 15:15 0 19
L D D W W
12 14 5 3 6 13:21 -8 18
L D L D W
13 14 4 6 4 16:16 0 18
D D W D L
14 14 4 5 5 15:16 -1 17
L D W L L
15 14 4 4 6 14:13 1 16
W W L D L
16 14 4 4 6 23:24 -1 16
D D L L W
17 14 4 2 8 17:22 -5 14
W W L L L
18 14 3 4 7 15:20 -5 13
W L L L L
19 13 2 2 9 10:25 -15 8
L L D L L
20 13 1 3 9 10:24 -14 6
W L L L D
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