BRAZIL SERIE B
22.09.2026 00:30
Arena Pantanal
Referee: Raimundo Rodrigues de Oliveira Junior

Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68%
Odds 2.05
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.31
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68%
2.05
BTTS Yes
71.2%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.31
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.16
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Cuiaba Win 68%
Draw 6.8%
Nautico Recife Win 25.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cuiaba1.05
Nautico Recife1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cuiaba Cuiaba
WWDLW
27 GF / 22 GA
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WLDWL
35 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
0.96
Average Goals Scored
1.25
0.79
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
11
BTTS Yes
13
6
Over 2.5
11
4.04
Shots on Goal
4.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cuiaba Cuiaba 28 matches
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 28 matches
Cuiaba Statistic Nautico Recife
9 Wins 10
13 Draws 8
6 Losses 10
27 Goals For 35
22 Goals Against 33
0.96 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
0.79 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
11 BTTS Yes 13
17 Over 1.5 17
6 Over 2.5 11
3 Over 3.5 5
11 Clean Sheets 8
11 Failed To Score 9
4.04 Shots On Goal 4.75
12.86 Total Shots 16.43
5.04 Corners 5.96
47.5% Ball Possession 58.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cuiaba expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Nautico Recife in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nautico Recife having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Nautico Recife. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cuiaba Analysis

From their first 28 matches, Cuiaba have collected 40 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 13 draws, and 6 losses, while the 27:22 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Kauan (2 goals), João Basso (2 goals), Hernandes (2 goals), with creative support from Pepê (3 assists), Eliel (3 assists), Kauan (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Nautico Recife Analysis

Nautico Recife approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 37 points from 27 matches. Their record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 32:30, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Vinícius (4 goals), Júnior Todinho (3 goals), Kaua Almeida da Costa (3 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (3 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Cuiaba won 1 times, Nautico Recife won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:6 from Cuiaba's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.2%)
Predicted formations: Cuiaba 3-4-2-1 / Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cuiaba wins 1, draws 0, Nautico Recife wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
11 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
12 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
13 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
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