BRAZIL SERIE B
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Arena Pantanal

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.6%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.6%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 1-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cuiaba Win 53.6%
Draw 5.1%
Fortaleza EC Win 41.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cuiaba0.83
Fortaleza EC0.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cuiaba Cuiaba
WWDLW
15 GF / 15 GA
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WLDWL
23 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
0.75
Average Goals Scored
1.15
0.75
Average Goals Conceded
0.95
6
BTTS Yes
7
3
Over 2.5
9
4.35
Shots on Goal
4.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cuiaba Cuiaba 20 matches
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 20 matches
Cuiaba Statistic Fortaleza EC
5 Wins 10
10 Draws 4
5 Losses 6
15 Goals For 23
15 Goals Against 19
0.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
0.75 Avg Goals Conceded 0.95
6 BTTS Yes 7
10 Over 1.5 11
3 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 3
9 Clean Sheets 9
10 Failed To Score 7
4.35 Shots On Goal 4.3
12.55 Total Shots 14.05
5.25 Corners 5.6
48.2% Ball Possession 46.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Fortaleza EC's more proactive style and Cuiaba's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Fortaleza EC. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cuiaba expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Fortaleza EC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortaleza EC having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Fortaleza EC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 34 points while Cuiaba sit 14 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Cuiaba Analysis

Cuiaba sit 14 with 25 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 10 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 15:15 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on João Basso (2 goals), Hernandes (2 goals), Pepê (1 goals), with creative support from Pepê (3 assists), João Basso (1 assists), Hernandes (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 34 points from 20 games, Fortaleza EC bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 10 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, with a 23:19 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Vitinho (4 goals), Juan Miritello (3 goals), Luiz Fernando (2 goals), with creative support from Maílton (1 assists), Emanuel Brítez (1 assists), Maurício Júnior (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cuiaba won 6 times, Fortaleza EC won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:12 from Cuiaba's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Cuiaba 3-4-2-1 / Fortaleza EC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cuiaba wins 6, draws 4, Fortaleza EC wins 5
Last matches: Cuiaba
27.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Sport Recife
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
17.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Juventude
0
2
L
12.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
São Bernardo
2
2
D
02.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
America Mineiro
1
0
W
25.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Londrina
2
2
D
21.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Avai
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Vila Nova
1
0
W
09.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Ponte Preta
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
CRB
2
0
W
22.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Novorizontino
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Athletic Club
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Criciuma
1
1
D
23.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Goias
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Operario-PR
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Ceara
0
2
L
31.03.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
0
0
D
21.03.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Sport Recife
0
0
D
Last matches: Fortaleza EC
29.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Botafogo SP
1
0
W
22.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Vila Nova
1
2
L
18.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Novorizontino
1
0
W
12.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
03.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Ponte Preta
2
0
W
28.06.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Sport Recife
2
1
W
21.06.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
CRB
1
1
D
16.06.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
America Mineiro
0
3
L
09.06.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Athletic Club
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Londrina
3
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Ceara
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Avai
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Goias
4
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Operario-PR
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Criciuma
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
São Bernardo
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Juventude
2
1
W
31.03.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Cuiaba
0
0
D
21.03.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Botafogo SP
0
4
L
H2H: Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC
31.03.26
H2H
Fortaleza EC
Cuiaba
0
0
D
29.09.24
H2H
Fortaleza EC
Cuiaba
1
0
L
16.06.24
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
5
0
W
12.11.23
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
16.07.23
H2H
Fortaleza EC
Cuiaba
0
1
W
31.07.22
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
10.04.22
H2H
Fortaleza EC
Cuiaba
0
1
W
06.12.21
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
1
0
W
31.08.21
H2H
Fortaleza EC
Cuiaba
0
0
D
13.08.17
H2H
Fortaleza EC
Cuiaba
1
1
D
11.06.17
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
2
2
D
14.08.16
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
2
0
W
12.06.16
H2H
Fortaleza EC
Cuiaba
2
0
L
15.08.15
H2H
Fortaleza EC
Cuiaba
1
0
L
01.06.15
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
1
3
L
Last matches: Cuiaba
23.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
02.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
America Mineiro
1
0
W
25.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Londrina
2
2
D
14.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Vila Nova
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
CRB
2
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Novorizontino
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Criciuma
1
1
D
23.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Ceara
0
2
L
21.03.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Sport Recife
0
0
D
H2H at home: Cuiaba
16.06.24
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
5
0
W
12.11.23
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
31.07.22
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
06.12.21
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
1
0
W
11.06.17
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
2
2
D
14.08.16
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
2
0
W
01.06.15
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
1
3
L
Last matches: Fortaleza EC
22.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Vila Nova
1
2
L
12.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
CRB
1
1
D
09.06.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Athletic Club
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Ceara
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Avai
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Operario-PR
0
0
D
12.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
São Bernardo
1
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Botafogo SP
0
4
L
H2H away: Fortaleza EC
16.06.24
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
5
0
L
12.11.23
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
2
1
L
31.07.22
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
0
1
W
06.12.21
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
1
0
L
11.06.17
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
2
2
D
14.08.16
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
2
0
L
01.06.15
H2H
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
1
3
W

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 11 7 2 23:12 11 40
D W W W W
2 20 10 5 5 22:12 10 35
W L W W D
3 20 10 5 5 28:25 3 35
L W D W W
4 20 10 4 6 23:19 4 34
W L W L W
5 20 10 4 6 27:24 3 34
L W L L W
6 20 9 6 5 32:19 13 33
W L L L W
7 20 8 7 5 23:20 3 31
W W D W L
8 20 8 5 7 31:32 -1 29
W W W D L
9 20 8 5 7 21:26 -5 29
L D W D W
10 20 6 11 3 25:19 6 29
D D D D L
11 20 6 10 4 19:18 1 28
D W D D L
12 20 7 6 7 28:23 5 27
L L D D L
13 20 7 4 9 24:24 0 25
D W L L D
14 20 5 10 5 15:15 0 25
D L L D W
15 20 6 6 8 24:21 3 24
L W D D W
16 20 5 7 8 20:25 -5 22
W L D D L
17 20 5 5 10 27:31 -4 20
L L D D W
18 20 5 5 10 21:27 -6 20
L W D W L
19 20 2 5 13 14:31 -17 11
W L D D L
20 20 2 3 15 15:39 -24 9
D L L L L
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