BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
CSA
Match Timeline
Ipatinga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
18'
Ronaldo Mendes
CSA
31'
Rian Santana
CSA
🟨
34'
Pedro Botelho
Ipatinga
🟥
34'
Pedro Botelho
Ipatinga
79'
Lucas Silva
CSA
90+10'
Lucas Silva
CSA

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.9%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
CSA Win 65.9%
Draw 5.8%
Ipatinga Win 28.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
CSA1.6
Ipatinga1
Recent Form (Last 5)
CSA CSA
WWDLW
28 GF / 10 GA
Ipatinga Ipatinga
WLDWL
15 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
2.15
Average Goals Scored
1.15
0.77
Average Goals Conceded
0.77
8
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

CSA CSA 13 matches
Ipatinga Ipatinga 13 matches
CSA Statistic Ipatinga
7 Wins 6
4 Draws 3
2 Losses 4
28 Goals For 15
10 Goals Against 10
2.15 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
0.77 Avg Goals Conceded 0.77
8 BTTS Yes 5
11 Over 1.5 8
5 Over 2.5 4
3 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 5
1 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Ipatinga have the edge after taking the first leg 1-0, leaving CSA needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Ipatinga. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ipatinga having the stronger overall control. CSA arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 21 points compared to Ipatinga in 2 on 15, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

CSA Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, CSA arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 21 points after 10 matches. The return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 25:8 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Ipatinga Analysis

Ipatinga come into this tie placed 2 in their league with 15 points from 10 matches. With 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses plus a goal ratio of 12:9, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on their main attacking players, while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, CSA won 1 times, Ipatinga won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:1 from CSA's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
H2H summary: CSA wins 1, draws 0, Ipatinga wins 1
Last matches: CSA
19.07.26
Ser
CSA
São Luiz
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
CSA
Ipatinga
0
1
L
27.06.26
Ser
CSA
Lagarto
2
0
W
21.06.26
Ser
CSA
Lagarto
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ser
CSA
Atlético Alagoinhas
7
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
CSA
Jacuipense
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
CSA
ASA
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
CSA
CSE
5
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
CSA
Juazeirense
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
CSA
Juazeirense
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
CSA
CSE
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
CSA
ASA
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
CSA
Jacuipense
3
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
CSA
Atlético Alagoinhas
3
0
W
Last matches: Ipatinga
04.07.26
Ser
Ipatinga
CSA
1
0
W
27.06.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Vitória ES
2
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Vitória ES
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Operario Ferroviario
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
ABECAT Ouvidorense
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Ivinhema
3
0
W
18.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Uberlandia
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
CRAC
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
CRAC
0
1
L
25.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Uberlandia
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Ivinhema
3
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
ABECAT Ouvidorense
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Operario Ferroviario
1
1
D
H2H: CSA vs Ipatinga
13.07.26
H2H
CSA
Ipatinga
4
0
W
04.07.26
H2H
Ipatinga
CSA
1
0
L
Last matches: CSA
27.06.26
Ser
CSA
Lagarto
2
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
CSA
Jacuipense
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
CSA
ASA
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
CSA
Juazeirense
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
CSA
CSE
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
CSA
Atlético Alagoinhas
3
0
W
H2H at home: CSA
13.07.26
H2H
CSA
Ipatinga
4
0
W
Last matches: Ipatinga
20.06.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Vitória ES
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
ABECAT Ouvidorense
1
2
L
18.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Uberlandia
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
CRAC
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Ivinhema
3
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Operario Ferroviario
1
1
D
H2H away: Ipatinga
13.07.26
H2H
CSA
Ipatinga
4
0
L

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1
CSA Home
10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)