Cruz Azul vs Toluca Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
49%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
67.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
72%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 1-2 |
-
|
- |
Cruz Azul
Toluca
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Cruz Azul
18 matches
Toluca
18 matches
| Cruz Azul | Statistic | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Wins | 10 |
| 3 | Draws | 3 |
| 6 | Losses | 5 |
| 36 | Goals For | 42 |
| 27 | Goals Against | 21 |
| 2 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.33 |
| 1.5 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.17 |
| 11 | BTTS Yes | 10 |
| 16 | Over 1.5 | 15 |
| 13 | Over 2.5 | 13 |
| 7 | Over 3.5 | 9 |
| 4 | Clean Sheets | 7 |
| 3 | Failed To Score | 2 |
| 7.13 | Shots On Goal | 6.44 |
| 19.67 | Total Shots | 18.19 |
| 6.8 | Corners | 5.06 |
| 58.8% | Ball Possession | 58.8% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Toluca look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cruz Azul expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Toluca in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Toluca having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Toluca.
Cruz Azul come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 15 points after 8 matches. The return of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 16:14, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through J. Paradela (2 goals), G. Fernández (2 goals), J. Márquez (2 goals), with creative support from J. Paradela (3 assists), C. Rodríguez (3 assists), L. Romero (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.
Operating from 1 place with 19 points from 8 games, Toluca bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, with a 18:6 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on A. Vega (2 goals), J. Gallardo (1 goals), J. Angulo (1 goals), with creative support from Helinho (2 assists), J. Gallardo (1 assists), J. Angulo (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cruz Azul won 7 times, Toluca won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:20 from Cruz Azul's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22:11 | 11 | 21 |
D
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 2 |
Toluca
Away
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25:15 | 10 | 20 |
L
D
L
W
W
|
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:8 | 7 | 20 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18:11 | 7 | 19 |
D
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 5 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15:12 | 3 | 18 |
D
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 6 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17:18 | -1 | 18 |
D
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 7 |
Cruz Azul
Home
|
11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22:21 | 1 | 17 |
D
D
L
W
W
|
| 8 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15:14 | 1 | 15 |
D
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12:13 | -1 | 15 |
D
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 10 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:15 | 2 | 14 |
D
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 11 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18:14 | 4 | 13 |
D
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 12 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 17:19 | -2 | 13 |
D
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 13 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13:15 | -2 | 13 |
W
W
L
D
D
|
|
| 14 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 12:16 | -4 | 13 |
W
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 15 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15:20 | -5 | 12 |
L
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12:17 | -5 | 11 |
L
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 17 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 15:23 | -8 | 9 |
D
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 18 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8:26 | -18 | 4 |
D
L
W
L
L
|