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MEXICO › LIGA MX
26.09.2026 22:50
Estadio Banorte
Referee: Katia García, Mexico
Cruz Azul
Match Timeline
Toluca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
7'
Nicolás Ibañez · Assist: José Paradela
Cruz Azul
🟨
37'
Diego Barbosa
Toluca
⚽
38'
Gabriel Fernández · Assist: Nicolás Ibañez
Cruz Azul
🟨
45+2'
Agustín Palavecino
Cruz Azul
🟨
45+2'
Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich
Toluca
🔄
45'
Diego Barbosa ↔ Érick Gutiérrez
Toluca
VAR
52'
Luan Garcia
Toluca
🟨
52'
Willer Ditta
Cruz Azul
⚽
55'
Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
Toluca
⚽
56'
Alexis Vega · Assist: Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
Toluca
🟨
57'
Gonzalo Piovi
Cruz Azul
🔄
73'
Pavel Pérez ↔ Jesús Angulo
Toluca
🔄
76'
Nicolás Ibañez ↔ Andrés Montaño
Cruz Azul
🔄
76'
Agustín Palavecino ↔ Luka Romero
Cruz Azul
⚽
78'
Alexis Vega · Assist: Nicolás Castro
Toluca
🔄
82'
Alexis Vega ↔ Jorge Diaz
Toluca
🔄
88'
Gonzalo Piovi ↔ Rogelio Gonzalez
Cruz Azul
🔄
88'
Alan Mozo ↔ Osinachi Ebere
Cruz Azul
🔄
90'
Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro ↔ Sebastián Aceves
Toluca
⚽
90+5'
Gabriel Fernández · Assist: Andrés Montaño
Cruz Azul
🔄
90+7'
José Paradela ↔ Juan José Calero Sierra
Cruz Azul
🟨
90+9'
Andrés Montaño
Cruz Azul

Cruz Azul vs Toluca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cruz Azul Win 35.6%
Draw 15.5%
Toluca Win 49%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cruz Azul1.67
Toluca2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cruz Azul Cruz Azul
WWDLW
36 GF / 27 GA
Toluca Toluca
WLDWL
42 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
2.33
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
11
BTTS Yes
10
13
Over 2.5
13
7.13
Shots on Goal
6.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 18 matches
Toluca Toluca 18 matches
Cruz Azul Statistic Toluca
9 Wins 10
3 Draws 3
6 Losses 5
36 Goals For 42
27 Goals Against 21
2 Avg Goals Scored 2.33
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
11 BTTS Yes 10
16 Over 1.5 15
13 Over 2.5 13
7 Over 3.5 9
4 Clean Sheets 7
3 Failed To Score 2
7.13 Shots On Goal 6.44
19.67 Total Shots 18.19
6.8 Corners 5.06
58.8% Ball Possession 58.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Toluca look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cruz Azul expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Toluca in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Toluca having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Toluca.

Cruz Azul Analysis

Cruz Azul come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 15 points after 8 matches. The return of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 16:14, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through J. Paradela (2 goals), G. Fernández (2 goals), J. Márquez (2 goals), with creative support from J. Paradela (3 assists), C. Rodríguez (3 assists), L. Romero (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Toluca Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 19 points from 8 games, Toluca bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, with a 18:6 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on A. Vega (2 goals), J. Gallardo (1 goals), J. Angulo (1 goals), with creative support from Helinho (2 assists), J. Gallardo (1 assists), J. Angulo (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cruz Azul won 7 times, Toluca won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:20 from Cruz Azul's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.5%)
Predicted formations: Cruz Azul 5-4-1 / Toluca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cruz Azul wins 7, draws 4, Toluca wins 4

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 22:11 11 21
D W D L W
2 11 6 2 3 25:15 10 20
L D L W W
3 10 6 2 2 15:8 7 20
W W D W W
4 11 5 4 2 18:11 7 19
D L D W W
5 11 5 3 3 15:12 3 18
D W D W L
6 11 5 3 3 17:18 -1 18
D W D L D
7 11 5 2 4 22:21 1 17
D D L W W
8 10 4 3 3 15:14 1 15
D L D L W
9 11 4 3 4 12:13 -1 15
D L D L W
10 10 4 2 4 17:15 2 14
D L W D L
11 11 3 4 4 18:14 4 13
D L D W W
12 11 3 4 4 17:19 -2 13
D L D L W
13 11 3 4 4 13:15 -2 13
W W L D D
14 11 4 1 6 12:16 -4 13
W W W W L
15 11 3 3 5 15:20 -5 12
L W W L L
16 11 2 5 4 12:17 -5 11
L W D L D
17 11 2 3 6 15:23 -8 9
D L L L D
18 11 1 1 9 8:26 -18 4
D L W L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)