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06.10.2026 18:45
Stadion Poljud
Referee: Erik Lambrechts
Croatia
Match Timeline
Spain
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
14'
Slaven Bilic
Croatia
⚽
17'
Ivan Perišić
Croatia
🟨
22'
Ivan Perišić
Croatia
🔄
45'
Alejandro Baena Rodríguez ↔ Mikel Merino
Spain
⚽
61'
Mikel Merino · Assist: Daniel Olmo Carvajal
Spain
🟨
65'
Luka Modrić
Croatia
🔄
65'
Igor Matanovic ↔ Dion Drena Beljo
Croatia
🔄
66'
Luka Modrić ↔ Petar Sučić
Croatia
🟨
66'
Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante
Spain
🔄
71'
Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante ↔ Martín Zubimendi
Spain
🔄
71'
Daniel Olmo Carvajal ↔ Fermín López
Spain
🔄
71'
Nikola Vlašić ↔ Martin Baturina
Croatia
🔄
78'
Lamine Yamal ↔ Víctor Muñoz
Spain
🟥
79'
Ivan Perišić
Croatia
🔄
87'
Pedri ↔ Yeremy Pino
Spain
🔄
88'
Mateo Kovačić ↔ Mario Pašalić
Croatia
⚽
88'
Mikel Merino · Assist: Martín Zubimendi
Spain
🟨
90+2'
Víctor Muñoz
Spain

Croatia vs Spain Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Croatia Win 40.6%
Draw 9.4%
Spain Win 50%
Expected Goals (xG)
Croatia0.95
Spain2.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Croatia Croatia
WWDLW
14 GF / 26 GA
Spain Spain
WLDWL
31 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
2.07
2.36
Average Goals Conceded
0.47
8
BTTS Yes
6
9
Over 2.5
8
3
Shots on Goal
6.27

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Croatia Croatia 11 matches
Spain Spain 15 matches
Croatia Statistic Spain
5 Wins 12
0 Draws 3
6 Losses 0
14 Goals For 31
26 Goals Against 7
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 2.07
2.36 Avg Goals Conceded 0.47
8 BTTS Yes 6
10 Over 1.5 10
9 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 5
1 Clean Sheets 9
2 Failed To Score 2
3 Shots On Goal 6.27
9.27 Total Shots 16.07
3.09 Corners 5.93
45.5% Ball Possession 59.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Croatia won 2 times, Spain won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:18 from Croatia's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.71 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
Predicted formations: Croatia 4-5-1 / Spain 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Croatia wins 2, draws 1, Spain wins 4

Standings

League A - Group C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Spain Away
4 4 0 0 12:5 7 12
W W W W
2 4 3 0 1 14:3 11 9
W W W L
3 4 1 0 3 4:14 -10 3
L L L W
4 4 0 0 4 2:10 -8 0
L L L L
Play Offs: Quarter-finals
Possible Play-off