BRAZIL SERIE B
18.07.2026 19:00
Estádio Heriberto Hülse
Referee: F. Fernandes de Lima
Criciuma
Match Timeline
Vila Nova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
Fellipe Mateus · Assist: Gui Lobo
Criciuma
🟨
26'
Luciano Castan
Criciuma
🟨
34'
Guilherme Lobo
Criciuma
🟨
39'
Tiago Pagnussat
Vila Nova
🔄
46'
Gui Lobo ↔ Ronald Lopes
Criciuma
🟨
49'
Bruno Alves
Criciuma
🟨
51'
Eduardo Biasi
Criciuma
🔄
58'
Eduardo ↔ Jean Irmer
Criciuma
🔄
58'
R. Otero ↔ Romarinho
Criciuma
🔄
61'
Igor Carius ↔ Nathan Camargo
Vila Nova
🔄
61'
Higor Meritao ↔ Enzo Bizzotto
Vila Nova
🔄
61'
Dudu ↔ Emerson Urso
Vila Nova
🟨
63'
Higor
Vila Nova
🟨
69'
Enzo
Vila Nova
🔄
78'
Janderson ↔ Caique
Vila Nova
85'
Marcelo Hermes · Assist: Ronald Lopes
Criciuma
🔄
89'
Waguininho ↔ Joao Carlos
Criciuma
🟨
90'
Jean Irmer
Criciuma
🔄
90+5'
Fellipe Mateus ↔ Jhonata Robert
Criciuma
🔄
90+1'
Dellatorre ↔ Hayner
Vila Nova

Criciuma vs Vila Nova Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.6%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Criciuma Win 55.6%
Draw 14.4%
Vila Nova Win 30.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Criciuma1.16
Vila Nova1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Criciuma Criciuma
WWDLW
20 GF / 12 GA
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WLDWL
25 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.47
0.71
Average Goals Conceded
1.12
9
BTTS Yes
10
4
Over 2.5
8
3.82
Shots on Goal
3.65

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Criciuma Criciuma 17 matches
Vila Nova Vila Nova 17 matches
Criciuma Statistic Vila Nova
9 Wins 9
6 Draws 4
2 Losses 4
20 Goals For 25
12 Goals Against 19
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
0.71 Avg Goals Conceded 1.12
9 BTTS Yes 10
9 Over 1.5 11
4 Over 2.5 8
2 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 3
3.82 Shots On Goal 3.65
13.35 Total Shots 12.82
6.06 Corners 4.53
51.6% Ball Possession 52.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Criciuma come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Vila Nova. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Criciuma expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Vila Nova in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vila Nova having the stronger overall control.

Criciuma Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 33 points from 17 games, Criciuma bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 20:12, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Fellipe Mateus (3 goals), R. Otero (2 goals), Waguininho (2 goals), with creative support from R. Otero (2 assists), Romarinho (2 assists), Waguininho (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 2 with 31 points from 17 matches. The overall return of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats with a 25:19 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Ryan Lima (3 goals), Rafael Silva (3 goals), Janderson (2 goals), with creative support from Janderson (4 assists), Marquinhos Gabriel (4 assists), Ryan Lima (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Criciuma won 7 times, Vila Nova won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:9 from Criciuma's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: Criciuma 3-4-3 / Vila Nova 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Criciuma wins 7, draws 6, Vila Nova wins 2

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 10 13 6 30:22 8 43
W D W L W
11 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
12 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
13 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
14 29 10 8 11 35:36 -1 38
L D L W W
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
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