BRAZIL SERIE B
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.5%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Criciuma Win 55.5%
Draw 14.4%
Vila Nova Win 30.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Criciuma1.16
Vila Nova1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Criciuma Criciuma
WWDLW
20 GF / 12 GA
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WLDWL
25 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.47
0.71
Average Goals Conceded
1.12
9
BTTS Yes
10
4
Over 2.5
8
3.82
Shots on Goal
3.65

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Criciuma Criciuma 17 matches
Vila Nova Vila Nova 17 matches
Criciuma Statistic Vila Nova
9 Wins 9
6 Draws 4
2 Losses 4
20 Goals For 25
12 Goals Against 19
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
0.71 Avg Goals Conceded 1.12
9 BTTS Yes 10
9 Over 1.5 11
4 Over 2.5 8
2 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 3
3.82 Shots On Goal 3.65
13.35 Total Shots 12.82
6.06 Corners 4.53
51.6% Ball Possession 52.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Criciuma expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Vila Nova in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vila Nova having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Criciuma come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Vila Nova.

Criciuma Analysis

Criciuma come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 33 points after 17 matches. The return of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 20:12, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Fellipe Mateus (3 goals), R. Otero (2 goals), Waguininho (2 goals), with creative support from R. Otero (2 assists), Romarinho (2 assists), Waguininho (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 31 points after 16 outings. They have recorded 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a 25:18 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Ryan Lima (3 goals), Rafael Silva (3 goals), Janderson (2 goals), with creative support from Janderson (4 assists), Marquinhos Gabriel (4 assists), Ryan Lima (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Criciuma won 6 times, Vila Nova won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:9 from Criciuma's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.57 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: Criciuma 3-4-3 / Vila Nova 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Criciuma wins 6, draws 6, Vila Nova wins 2
Last matches: Criciuma
08.07.26
Ser
Criciuma
Ponte Preta
2
1
W
04.07.26
Ser
Criciuma
Sport Recife
1
0
W
27.06.26
Ser
Criciuma
São Bernardo
1
0
W
23.06.26
Ser
Criciuma
America Mineiro
1
0
W
16.06.26
Ser
Criciuma
Ceara
1
1
D
06.06.26
Ser
Criciuma
Londrina
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Criciuma
Avai
2
1
W
24.05.26
Ser
Criciuma
Operario-PR
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Criciuma
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Criciuma
Juventude
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Criciuma
Cuiaba
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Criciuma
CRB
3
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Criciuma
Fortaleza EC
2
3
L
10.04.26
Ser
Criciuma
Botafogo SP
1
0
W
07.04.26
Ser
Criciuma
Goias
0
1
L
02.04.26
Ser
Criciuma
Athletic Club
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Criciuma
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
Last matches: Vila Nova
10.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Juventude
0
1
L
06.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
São Bernardo
2
1
W
26.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Novorizontino
1
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
4
3
W
14.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Cuiaba
0
1
L
08.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Botafogo SP
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Londrina
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
America Mineiro
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Avai
2
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Goias
0
1
L
04.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Athletic Club
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Ceara
3
3
D
18.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Operario-PR
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Ponte Preta
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Atletico Goianiense
2
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Vila Nova
CRB
2
2
D
H2H: Criciuma vs Vila Nova
03.10.25
H2H
Vila Nova
Criciuma
1
1
D
09.06.25
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
0
W
23.08.23
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
0
W
12.05.23
H2H
Vila Nova
Criciuma
0
0
D
04.10.22
H2H
Vila Nova
Criciuma
1
0
L
25.06.22
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
0
W
01.10.19
H2H
Vila Nova
Criciuma
1
1
D
08.06.19
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
1
D
17.11.18
H2H
Vila Nova
Criciuma
2
2
D
28.07.18
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
0
W
17.10.17
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
0
1
L
30.06.17
H2H
Vila Nova
Criciuma
0
0
D
07.10.16
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
0
W
22.06.16
H2H
Vila Nova
Criciuma
2
3
W
Last matches: Criciuma
04.07.26
Ser
Criciuma
Sport Recife
1
0
W
27.06.26
Ser
Criciuma
São Bernardo
1
0
W
16.06.26
Ser
Criciuma
Ceara
1
1
D
06.06.26
Ser
Criciuma
Londrina
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Criciuma
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Criciuma
CRB
3
1
W
10.04.26
Ser
Criciuma
Botafogo SP
1
0
W
02.04.26
Ser
Criciuma
Athletic Club
1
1
D
H2H at home: Criciuma
09.06.25
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
0
W
23.08.23
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
0
W
25.06.22
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
0
W
08.06.19
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
1
D
28.07.18
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
0
W
17.10.17
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
0
1
L
07.10.16
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
0
W
Last matches: Vila Nova
10.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Juventude
0
1
L
26.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Novorizontino
1
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Cuiaba
0
1
L
31.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Londrina
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
America Mineiro
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Goias
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Ceara
3
3
D
11.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Ponte Preta
1
0
W
01.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
1
1
D
H2H away: Vila Nova
09.06.25
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
0
L
23.08.23
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
0
L
25.06.22
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
0
L
08.06.19
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
1
D
28.07.18
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
0
L
17.10.17
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
0
1
W
07.10.16
H2H
Criciuma
Vila Nova
1
0
L

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 9 6 2 20:12 8 33
W W W W D
2 17 9 4 4 25:19 6 31
L W L W L
3 17 9 4 4 22:18 4 31
W W W W L
4 17 8 6 3 28:16 12 30
L W W W D
5 17 8 5 4 17:8 9 29
W D W W W
6 17 8 4 5 20:17 3 28
L W W D L
7 17 7 5 5 23:16 7 26
D L L L D
8 17 6 8 3 21:15 6 26
D L L D D
9 17 7 4 6 18:23 -5 25
D W W L D
10 17 6 6 5 19:19 0 24
W L W D D
11 17 5 9 3 14:11 3 24
D W D L W
12 16 5 7 4 16:16 0 22
L W L D D
13 17 6 3 8 21:21 0 21
L D L L D
14 17 5 5 7 20:18 2 20
D W L W W
15 17 5 5 7 26:31 -5 20
D L W D D
16 16 5 3 8 24:24 0 18
W D W W L
17 16 4 5 7 15:20 -5 17
L L L D W
18 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
W L L W L
19 17 2 2 13 11:33 -22 8
L L L L L
20 16 1 3 12 10:27 -17 6
L L L W L
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