BRAZIL SERIE B
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Referee: M. Delgado

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 19.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.1%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
19.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Criciuma Win 67.1%
Draw 4.8%
Cuiaba Win 28.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Criciuma0.93
Cuiaba0.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
Criciuma Criciuma
WWDLW
26 GF / 19 GA
Cuiaba Cuiaba
WLDWL
23 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
0.92
0.76
Average Goals Conceded
0.76
11
BTTS Yes
10
5
Over 2.5
5
3.84
Shots on Goal
4.28

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Criciuma Criciuma 25 matches
Cuiaba Cuiaba 25 matches
Criciuma Statistic Cuiaba
12 Wins 8
8 Draws 12
5 Losses 5
26 Goals For 23
19 Goals Against 19
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
0.76 Avg Goals Conceded 0.76
11 BTTS Yes 10
14 Over 1.5 14
5 Over 2.5 5
2 Over 3.5 3
11 Clean Sheets 10
5 Failed To Score 10
3.84 Shots On Goal 4.28
13.56 Total Shots 13.16
6.44 Corners 5.2
51.5% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cuiaba. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Criciuma arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 44 points compared to Cuiaba in 12 on 33, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Criciuma Analysis

Criciuma arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 44 points after 24 matches. The record of 12 wins, 8 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 25:17 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Fellipe Mateus (4 goals), Rómulo Otero (2 goals), Marcelo Hermes (2 goals), with creative support from Rómulo Otero (2 assists), Romarinho (2 assists), Marcelo Hermes (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Cuiaba Analysis

So far, Cuiaba have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 33 points from 24 matches. The record of 7 wins, 12 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 21:18 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through João Basso (2 goals), Hernandes (2 goals), Pepê (1 goals), with creative support from Pepê (3 assists), Eliel (2 assists), João Basso (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Criciuma won 1 times, Cuiaba won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:10 from Criciuma's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.14 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.2%)
Predicted formations: Criciuma 3-4-2-1 / Cuiaba 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Criciuma wins 1, draws 2, Cuiaba wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 25 13 5 7 37:25 12 44
W D W W L
3 25 12 8 5 26:19 7 44
L L D W L
4 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
5 25 11 8 6 28:22 6 41
D W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 37:35 2 39
W L W D W
7 25 10 9 6 28:23 5 39
W W D L D
8 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
9 25 10 7 8 31:32 -1 37
D D L L L
10 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
11 25 8 12 5 23:19 4 36
W D W W D
12 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
13 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 25 8 7 10 29:28 1 31
L L D W W
16 25 8 5 12 27:31 -4 29
L W W W L
17 25 7 7 11 25:32 -7 28
L W L L W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 25 3 5 17 18:42 -24 14
W L L L L
20 25 2 4 19 16:52 -36 10
L L L D L
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