BRAZIL SERIE B
27.09.2026 14:00

Criciuma vs Avai Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.7%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 3-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Criciuma Win 54.7%
Draw 15.7%
Avai Win 29.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Criciuma1.12
Avai0.97
Recent Form (Last 5)
Criciuma Criciuma
WWDLW
28 GF / 25 GA
Avai Avai
WLDWL
30 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.03
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
11
BTTS Yes
15
6
Over 2.5
13
3.71
Shots on Goal
3.21

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Criciuma Criciuma 28 matches
Avai Avai 29 matches
Criciuma Statistic Avai
13 Wins 8
8 Draws 6
7 Losses 15
28 Goals For 30
25 Goals Against 38
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
11 BTTS Yes 15
17 Over 1.5 20
6 Over 2.5 13
3 Over 3.5 5
12 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 9
3.71 Shots On Goal 3.21
13.21 Total Shots 11.14
6.43 Corners 3.69
52.3% Ball Possession 46.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Criciuma's more proactive style and Avai's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Criciuma expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Avai in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Avai having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Avai. Criciuma arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 47 points compared to Avai in 17 on 30, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Criciuma Analysis

Criciuma sit 5 with 47 points after 28 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 13 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 28:25 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Fellipe Mateus (4 goals), R. Otero (2 goals), Marcelo Hermes (2 goals), with creative support from R. Otero (2 assists), Romarinho (2 assists), Marcelo Hermes (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Avai Analysis

Avai sit 17 with 30 points after 28 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 14 defeats with a 29:36 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Daniel Penha (4 goals), Walace dos Santos França (3 goals), Jean Lucas (2 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (5 assists), Thayllon Roberth (2 assists), Daniel Penha (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Criciuma won 8 times, Avai won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:13 from Criciuma's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.4%)
Predicted formations: Criciuma 3-4-3 / Avai 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Criciuma wins 8, draws 4, Avai wins 3

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
11 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
12 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
13 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17
Avai Away
29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
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