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ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
17.10.2026 14:00
Alexandra Stadium

Crewe vs Rochdale Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.7%
Odds 1.86
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 1.89
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.7%
1.86 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
1.89 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.3%
1.20 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.88 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Crewe Win 72.7%
Draw 5.8%
Rochdale Win 21.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Crewe1.43
Rochdale1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Crewe Crewe
WWDLW
20 GF / 12 GA
Rochdale Rochdale
WLDWL
18 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.29
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
1.57
9
BTTS Yes
7
5
Over 2.5
8
3.5
Shots on Goal
2.9

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Crewe Crewe 15 matches
Rochdale Rochdale 14 matches
Crewe Statistic Rochdale
6 Wins 4
8 Draws 4
1 Losses 6
20 Goals For 18
12 Goals Against 22
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 1.57
9 BTTS Yes 7
10 Over 1.5 11
5 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 4
3.5 Shots On Goal 2.9
11.9 Total Shots 8.9
4.9 Corners 4.4
48.7% Ball Possession 53.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Crewe's more proactive style and Rochdale's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Rochdale. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Crewe arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 15 points compared to Rochdale in 11 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Crewe Analysis

Crewe arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 15 points after 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 6 draws, and 0 losses, while the 11:7 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Lankester (2 goals), J. Gibson (2 goals), J. March (1 goals), with creative support from J. Tabiner (2 assists), J. March (1 assists), L. Billington (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Rochdale Analysis

Rochdale are currently 11 in the standings with 13 points from 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, while the 10:11 goal ratio supports the view of good form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Brown (2 goals), A. Flint (1 goals), C. Tasker (1 goals), with creative support from G. Middleton (2 assists), D. Brown (1 assists), A. Flint (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Crewe won 2 times, Rochdale won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:20 from Crewe's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: Crewe 4-2-3-1 / Rochdale 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Crewe wins 2, draws 4, Rochdale wins 3

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 1 3 15:10 5 19
W W W W D
2 8 5 3 0 20:11 9 18
W W W D D
3
Crewe Home
10 4 6 0 12:7 5 18
W W D D D
4 10 4 4 2 15:10 5 16
W D L W W
5 9 4 3 2 17:11 6 15
D W L W D
6 9 3 6 0 12:6 6 15
D D W D D
7 10 4 3 3 17:14 3 15
D W L W W
8 10 4 3 3 16:16 0 15
L L W D W
9 10 5 0 5 15:17 -2 15
L L W L L
10 10 4 2 4 11:12 -1 14
D W W W D
11 10 3 4 3 13:11 2 13
L L L W W
12 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
W D W D D
13 10 2 6 2 13:13 0 12
D L D D L
14 10 3 3 4 6:6 0 12
W W L D L
15 10 2 5 3 13:14 -1 11
D W D D L
16 10 2 5 3 10:11 -1 11
D L L L D
17 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L L D L L
18 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
L W D D W
19 9 2 4 3 10:13 -3 10
L D D D L
20 10 2 4 4 12:16 -4 10
L L D W D
21 9 2 2 5 9:13 -4 8
D L L L L
22 8 2 2 4 4:9 -5 8
W L W L L
23 8 1 4 3 4:7 -3 7
D L L W D
24 8 1 2 5 8:15 -7 5
D L L L D
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League