ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
03.10.2026 14:00
Alexandra Stadium
Crewe
Match Timeline
Bristol Rovers
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
1'
Jack Lankester · Assist: Joel Tabiner
Crewe
🟨
8'
Josh March
Crewe
🟨
8'
Thomas James
Bristol Rovers
🟨
10'
Joshua Stephenson
Crewe
⚽
21'
Jack Lankester
Crewe
🟨
30'
Ciaran Kelly
Bristol Rovers
🟨
38'
Owen lunt
Crewe
🔄
45'
Richard Smallwood ↔ Keenan Gough
Bristol Rovers
🔄
45'
Alfie Kilgour ↔ Philip Sanyaolu
Bristol Rovers
🔄
45'
Jack Sparkes ↔ Ben Purrington
Bristol Rovers
🔄
45'
Reiss-Alexander Russell-Denny ↔ Shaqai Forde
Bristol Rovers
🔄
50'
Joel Tabiner ↔ Jordan Gibson
Crewe
🔄
62'
Jack Lankester ↔ Conor Thomas
Crewe
⚽
66'
Jordan Gibson · Assist: Josh March
Crewe
🔄
74'
Ellis Harrison ↔ Joe Quigley
Bristol Rovers
🟨
77'
Keenan Gough
Bristol Rovers
🟨
79'
Conor Thomas
Crewe
🔄
81'
Adrien thibaut ↔ Charlie McNeill
Crewe
🟨
89'
Clinton Mola
Bristol Rovers
⚽
90+2'
Bobby Kamwa · Assist: Clinton Mola
Bristol Rovers

Crewe vs Bristol Rovers Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 66.9%
Odds 1.67
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.1%
Odds 1.96
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
66.9%
1.67 ▥
BTTS Yes
71%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.1%
1.96 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.19 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
5.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-1
-
6.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Crewe Win 41.4%
Draw 25.6%
Bristol Rovers Win 33.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Crewe1.29
Bristol Rovers1.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
Crewe Crewe
WWDLW
16 GF / 11 GA
Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers
WLDWL
23 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1.77
0.85
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
8
BTTS Yes
6
4
Over 2.5
7
3.25
Shots on Goal
4.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Crewe Crewe 13 matches
Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 13 matches
Crewe Statistic Bristol Rovers
4 Wins 7
8 Draws 2
1 Losses 4
16 Goals For 23
11 Goals Against 18
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1.77
0.85 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
8 BTTS Yes 6
9 Over 1.5 11
4 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 2
3.25 Shots On Goal 4.88
12.38 Total Shots 16.5
5.5 Corners 6.13
49.4% Ball Possession 45.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Bristol Rovers. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Crewe Analysis

Crewe are currently 9 in the standings with 11 points from 7 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses, while the 7:5 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on L. Offord (1 goals), J. March (1 goals), J. Stephenson (1 goals), with creative support from L. Billington (1 assists), J. Tabiner (1 assists), Calum Agius (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Bristol Rovers Analysis

Bristol Rovers sit 6 with 12 points after 7 league matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 12:11 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by B. Kamwa (2 goals), F. Cavegn (2 goals), T. James (1 goals), with creative support from T. James (1 assists), Brad Young (1 assists), K. Balmer (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Crewe won 4 times, Bristol Rovers won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:11 from Crewe's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.86 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (74.5%)
Predicted formations: Crewe 4-2-3-1 / Bristol Rovers 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Crewe wins 4, draws 1, Bristol Rovers wins 2

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 4 3 0 17:10 7 15
W W D D D
2 8 4 3 1 16:12 4 15
W D W D W
3 8 5 0 3 13:11 2 15
W L L W W
4 8 4 2 2 16:10 6 14
W L W D L
5 8 3 5 0 11:5 6 14
D W D D D
6 8 3 4 1 12:8 4 13
L W W D D
7 8 4 1 3 12:10 2 13
W W D W W
8 8 3 3 2 11:9 2 12
L W W W D
9
Crewe Home
8 2 6 0 8:6 2 12
D D D D D
10 8 2 5 1 10:8 2 11
D D L W D
11 8 3 2 3 11:10 1 11
L W W D D
12 8 3 2 3 9:12 -3 11
D L L W W
13 8 2 4 2 11:11 0 10
D W D L D
14 8 2 4 2 9:9 0 10
L L D W D
15 8 2 4 2 10:12 -2 10
D D D L L
16 8 3 1 4 9:11 -2 10
W W D L W
17 8 2 3 3 12:12 0 9
W D D L L
18 8 2 2 4 7:13 -6 8
D D W L L
19 8 1 4 3 11:14 -3 7
D D L W D
20 8 2 1 5 9:13 -4 7
L L L L D
21 8 1 3 4 4:6 -2 6
L D L D D
22 7 1 3 3 3:6 -3 6
L L W D D
23 7 1 2 4 3:9 -6 5
L W L L D
24 7 1 1 5 6:13 -7 4
L L L D L
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League