BRAZIL SERIE B
27.07.2026 22:30
Estádio Rei Pelé
Referee: J. Pinheiro
CRB
Match Timeline
Vila Nova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
2'
Willian Formiga
Vila Nova
13'
Bressan · Assist: Dada Belmonte
CRB
18'
Mikael · Assist: Thiaguinho
CRB
🔄
46'
Dodo ↔ Everton Galdino
Vila Nova
🔄
46'
Higor Meritao ↔ Dudu
Vila Nova
🔄
46'
Willian Formiga ↔ Higor
Vila Nova
🟨
62'
Breno
Vila Nova
🔄
68'
Mikael ↔ Douglas Baggio
CRB
🔄
68'
Danielzinho ↔ Geovane
CRB
🔄
75'
Igor Carius ↔ Hayner
Vila Nova
🔄
75'
Marquinhos Gabriel ↔ Emerson Urso
Vila Nova
🔄
83'
Dada Belmonte ↔ Vinicius Barata
CRB
🔄
83'
Thiaguinho ↔ Guilherme Pato
CRB
🔄
88'
Pedro Castro ↔ De Lucca
CRB

CRB vs Vila Nova Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.6%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
CRB Win 55.6%
Draw 5.9%
Vila Nova Win 38.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
CRB1.38
Vila Nova1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
CRB CRB
WWDLW
29 GF / 32 GA
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WLDWL
27 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.68
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
12
BTTS Yes
11
12
Over 2.5
9
5.47
Shots on Goal
3.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

CRB CRB 19 matches
Vila Nova Vila Nova 19 matches
CRB Statistic Vila Nova
7 Wins 10
5 Draws 4
7 Losses 5
29 Goals For 27
32 Goals Against 22
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.68 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
12 BTTS Yes 11
15 Over 1.5 13
12 Over 2.5 9
8 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 4
5.47 Shots On Goal 3.58
16.26 Total Shots 12.63
4.84 Corners 4.37
51.3% Ball Possession 52.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Vila Nova's more proactive style and CRB's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Vila Nova carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 31 points while CRB sit 13 on 23, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with CRB expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Vila Nova in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vila Nova having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Vila Nova. Vila Nova arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

CRB Analysis

CRB sit 13 with 23 points after 18 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 28:32 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Mikael (10 goals), Pedro Castro (3 goals), Dadá Belmonte (2 goals), with creative support from Mikael (3 assists), Dadá Belmonte (3 assists), Crystopher (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova sit 4 with 31 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 25:21, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Ryan Lima (3 goals), Rafael Silva (3 goals), Janderson (2 goals), with creative support from Janderson (4 assists), Marquinhos Gabriel (4 assists), Ryan Lima (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, CRB won 6 times, Vila Nova won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:13 from CRB's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.1%)
Predicted formations: CRB 4-3-3 / Vila Nova 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: CRB wins 6, draws 5, Vila Nova wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7
CRB Home
29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
11 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
12 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
13 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
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