CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Municipal de Collao
Referee: Fernando Andre Vejar Diaz, Chile
Concepción
Match Timeline
Universidad de Concepcion
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
45+3'
Joaquín Montecinos
Concepción
🟨
45+4'
Yerco Oyanedel
Universidad de Concepcion
45'
J. Larrivey
Concepción
🟨
53'
Ariel Cáceres
Concepción
🟨
63'
Jeison Fuentealba
Universidad de Concepcion
🟨
65'
Joaquín Larrivey
Concepción
🔄
65'
J. Montecinos ↔ F. Romero
Concepción
🟨
66'
Joaquín Larrivey
Concepción
🟥
66'
Joaquín Larrivey
Concepción
🔄
67'
H. Salgado ↔ I. Gonzalez
Universidad de Concepcion
🟨
69'
Osvaldo González
Universidad de Concepcion
🟨
74'
Jorge Henríquez
Concepción
🔄
75'
J. Henriquez ↔ C. Riquelme
Concepción
🟨
80'
Cristhofer Mesías
Universidad de Concepcion
🔄
80'
J. Fuentealba ↔ P. Parra
Universidad de Concepcion
🔄
80'
F. Mater ↔ C. Mesias
Universidad de Concepcion
🟨
90+7'
Jorge Espejo
Universidad de Concepcion
🔄
90'
M. Sandoval ↔ F. Martinez
Concepción
🔄
90'
E. Espinoza ↔ M. Cavalleri
Concepción
🔄
90'
B. Ogaz ↔ A. Diaz
Universidad de Concepcion

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.4%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Concepción Win 74.4%
Draw 9.9%
Universidad de Concepcion Win 15.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Concepción1.46
Universidad de Concepcion1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Concepción Concepción
WWDLW
30 GF / 31 GA
Universidad de Concepcion Universidad de Concepcion
WLDWL
21 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
0.95
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.77
10
BTTS Yes
11
10
Over 2.5
12
3.76
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Concepción Concepción 24 matches
Universidad de Concepcion Universidad de Concepcion 22 matches
Concepción Statistic Universidad de Concepcion
10 Wins 6
3 Draws 5
11 Losses 11
30 Goals For 21
31 Goals Against 39
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 0.95
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.77
10 BTTS Yes 11
20 Over 1.5 15
10 Over 2.5 12
3 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 6
3.76 Shots On Goal 4
12.71 Total Shots 12.94
4.47 Corners 5.19
46.5% Ball Possession 49.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Universidad de Concepcion. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Concepción expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Universidad de Concepcion in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universidad de Concepcion having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Concepción Analysis

With 17 points from 16 games and a place of 15, Concepción still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 16:23 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Joaquín Larrivey (5 goals), Cecilio Waterman (3 goals), Mario Sandoval (2 goals), with creative support from Yerco Oyanedel (2 assists), Agustín Urzi (2 assists), Joaquín Larrivey (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Universidad de Concepcion Analysis

So far, Universidad de Concepcion have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 19 points from 16 matches. The record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 13:27 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Cecilio Waterman (3 goals), Jeison Fuentealba (1 goals), Osvaldo González (1 goals), with creative support from Yerco Oyanedel (2 assists), Agustín Urzi (2 assists), Bryan Ogaz (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Concepción won 4 times, Universidad de Concepcion won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:7 from Concepción's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.1%)
Predicted formations: Concepción 4-2-3-1 / Universidad de Concepcion 4-3-3
H2H summary: Concepción wins 4, draws 0, Universidad de Concepcion wins 2
Stats
Concepción Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion Universidad de Concepcion
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
2
4 Corner Kicks 3
13 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 0
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Goal 4
4 Shots off Goal 6
3 Blocked Shots 2
6 Shots insidebox 7
3 Shots outsidebox 5
4 Goalkeeper Saves 1
283 Total passes 462
210 Passes accurate 383
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 5 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Concepción
Formation
Universidad de Concepcion
N. Araya
N. Araya
A. Caceres
A. Caceres
N. Rodriguez
N. Rodriguez
F. Grillo
F. Grillo
D. Varas
D. Varas
Y. Rodriguez
Y. Rodriguez
M. Sandoval
M. Sandoval
J. Montecinos
J. Montecinos
J. Henriquez
J. Henriquez
E. Espinoza
E. Espinoza
J. Larrivey
J. Larrivey
J. Broun
J. Broun
J. Espejo
J. Espejo
O. Gonzalez
O. Gonzalez
B. Ubal
B. Ubal
Y. A. Oyanedel Hernandez
Y. A. Oyanedel Hernandez
B. Ogaz
B. Ogaz
L. Rojas
L. Rojas
F. Mater
F. Mater
J. Fuentealba
J. Fuentealba
H. Salgado
H. Salgado
C. Waterman
C. Waterman
Concepción 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
25
N. Araya
G
4
A. Caceres
🟨 53'
D
21
N. Rodriguez
D
37
F. Grillo
D
29
D. Varas
D
18
Y. Rodriguez
M
16
M. Sandoval
↓ 90'
M
15
J. Montecinos
↓ 65'
M
20
J. Henriquez
↓ 75' 🟨 74'
M
30
E. Espinoza
↓ 90'
32
J. Larrivey
⚽ 45' 🟨 65' 🟨 66' 🟥 66'
F
Substitutes
12
N. Veloso Espinoza
G
23
C. Riquelme
↑ 75'
D
9
C. Escobar
22
M. Davila Carvajal
M
8
F. Martinez
↑ 90'
M
7
F. Romero
↑ 65'
F
24
M. Cavalleri
↑ 90'
F
27
D. Acosta
F
19
A. Jara
F
Universidad de Concepcion 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
J. Broun
G
21
J. Espejo
🟨 90+7'
D
4
O. Gonzalez
🟨 69'
D
6
B. Ubal
15
Y. A. Oyanedel Hernandez
🟨 45+4'
D
16
B. Ogaz
↓ 90'
M
20
L. Rojas
M
8
F. Mater
↓ 80'
M
10
J. Fuentealba
↓ 80' 🟨 63'
M
25
H. Salgado
↓ 67'
18
C. Waterman
F
Substitutes
13
J. Sanhueza
G
7
I. Gonzalez
↑ 67'
F
5
D. Retamal
D
14
P. Parra
↑ 80'
M
3
M. Barbieri
D
11
A. Diaz
↑ 90'
F
19
C. Mesias
↑ 80' 🟨 80'
D
23
P. Romero
D
36
M. Suazo
M
Last matches: Concepción
16.08.26
Pri
Concepción
Cobresal
2
0
W
02.08.26
Pri
Concepción
U. Catolica
3
0
W
27.07.26
Pri
Concepción
O'Higgins
2
0
W
12.07.26
Cop
Concepción
D. Puerto Montt
2
0
W
06.07.26
Cop
Concepción
Deportes Temuco
2
0
W
02.07.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
2
1
W
29.06.26
Cop
Concepción
D. Puerto Montt
0
2
L
24.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
3
2
W
21.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Deportes Temuco
1
1
D
14.06.26
Pri
Concepción
Deportes Limache
3
2
W
30.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Universidad de Chile
1
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Huachipato
2
0
W
18.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Everton de Vina
0
2
L
24.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Palestino
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Concepción
D. La Serena
3
3
D
14.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Union La Calera
0
1
L
05.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Colo Colo
0
1
L
13.03.26
Pri
Concepción
A. Italiano
0
3
L
06.03.26
Pri
Concepción
Nublense
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
Last matches: Universidad de Concepcion
14.08.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
0
2
L
04.08.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Curico Unido
1
3
L
01.08.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
0
1
L
05.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Rangers de Talca
2
0
W
01.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
0
1
L
28.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Curico Unido
2
2
D
25.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
2
4
L
20.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Rangers de Talca
1
2
L
14.06.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
U. Catolica
1
5
L
30.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Union La Calera
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
2
2
D
16.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
O'Higgins
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Colo Colo
1
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Limache
0
3
L
13.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Cobresal
1
0
W
07.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Huachipato
1
5
L
15.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Palestino
1
0
W
09.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Everton de Vina
0
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
1
1
D
H2H: Concepción vs Universidad de Concepcion
09.08.26
H2H
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
W
15.02.26
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
Concepción
2
1
L
24.08.25
H2H
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
4
L
20.04.25
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
Concepción
1
2
W
12.02.25
H2H
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
W
15.06.21
H2H
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
W
Last matches: Concepción
02.08.26
Pri
Concepción
U. Catolica
3
0
W
27.07.26
Pri
Concepción
O'Higgins
2
0
W
12.07.26
Cop
Concepción
D. Puerto Montt
2
0
W
06.07.26
Cop
Concepción
Deportes Temuco
2
0
W
24.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
3
2
W
14.06.26
Pri
Concepción
Deportes Limache
3
2
W
24.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Huachipato
2
0
W
18.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Everton de Vina
0
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Concepción
D. La Serena
3
3
D
05.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Colo Colo
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pri
Concepción
Nublense
0
2
L
20.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Cobresal
1
1
D
14.01.26
Fri
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
02.07.25
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
1
1
D
07.06.25
Cop
Concepción
Union Espanola
1
0
W
06.04.25
Cop
Concepción
A. Italiano
0
0
D
23.03.25
Cop
Concepción
Palestino
3
2
W
26.06.24
Cop
Concepción
Linares Unido
2
3
L
27.03.22
Cop
Concepción
Fernández Vial
0
2
L
03.07.21
Cop
Concepción
Palestino
0
4
L
H2H at home: Concepción
09.08.26
H2H
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
W
24.08.25
H2H
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
4
L
12.02.25
H2H
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
W
15.06.21
H2H
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
W
Last matches: Universidad de Concepcion
28.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Curico Unido
2
2
D
25.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
2
4
L
20.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Rangers de Talca
1
2
L
14.06.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
U. Catolica
1
5
L
23.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
2
2
D
16.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
O'Higgins
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Limache
0
3
L
07.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Huachipato
1
5
L
09.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
1
1
D
22.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
1
1
D
06.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
0
3
L
05.04.25
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
0
2
L
15.02.25
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Santa Cruz
3
0
W
08.02.25
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Curico Unido
1
0
W
30.06.24
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Linares Unido
0
1
L
15.06.24
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Vicente Rosales
3
0
W
04.10.23
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Magallanes
2
1
W
27.07.23
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Temuco
3
0
W
08.04.23
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Iberia
2
0
W
20.08.22
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Magallanes
1
4
L
H2H away: Universidad de Concepcion
09.08.26
H2H
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
L
24.08.25
H2H
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
4
W
12.02.25
H2H
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
L
15.06.21
H2H
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
L

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 15 1 3 40:19 21 46
D W W W W
2 19 10 6 3 26:13 13 36
W W W W W
3 18 9 3 6 40:26 14 30
W L D W W
4 19 9 3 7 31:27 4 30
W L W L W
5 18 7 8 3 24:22 2 29
W D W D W
6 19 7 6 6 28:22 6 27
D W L D L
7 19 8 2 9 22:23 -1 26
W W W W W
8 17 7 4 6 24:21 3 25
D L D W D
9 18 7 3 8 35:30 5 24
L W L L L
10 19 7 3 9 24:30 -6 24
D L W L L
11 19 7 3 9 28:36 -8 24
L L L D D
12 19 5 8 6 28:31 -3 23
W D L D D
13 19 5 6 8 23:26 -3 21
D D W L D
14 18 5 4 9 13:30 -17 19
L L L L D
15 19 5 2 12 26:36 -10 17
L L W D L
16 19 3 4 12 17:37 -20 13
L L L D D