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09.08.2026 16:30
Estadio Ester Roa
Referee: F. Vejar
Concepción
Match Timeline
Universidad de Concepcion
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
45+5'
Joaquín Larrivey
Concepción
VAR
45+3'
Joaquín Montecinos
Concepción
🟨
45+4'
Yerco Oyanedel
Universidad de Concepcion
🟨
53'
Ariel Cáceres
Concepción
🟨
63'
Jeison Fuentealba
Universidad de Concepcion
🟨
65'
Joaquín Larrivey
Concepción
🔄
65'
Joaquín Montecinos ↔ Fernando Romero
Concepción
🟨
66'
Joaquín Larrivey
Concepción
🟥
66'
Joaquín Larrivey
Concepción
🔄
67'
Harol Salgado ↔ Iam González
Universidad de Concepcion
🟨
69'
Osvaldo González
Universidad de Concepcion
🟨
74'
Jorge Henríquez
Concepción
🔄
75'
Jorge Henríquez ↔ Cristian Riquelme
Concepción
🟨
80'
Cristhofer Mesías
Universidad de Concepcion
🔄
80'
Facundo Mater ↔ Cristhofer Mesías
Universidad de Concepcion
🔄
80'
Jeison Fuentealba ↔ Pablo Parra
Universidad de Concepcion
🟨
90+7'
Jorge Espejo
Universidad de Concepcion
🔄
90'
Mario Sandoval ↔ Fernando Martinez
Concepción
🔄
90'
Ethan Espinoza ↔ Matías Cavalleri
Concepción
🔄
90'
Bryan Ogaz ↔ Antonio Díaz
Universidad de Concepcion

Concepción vs Universidad de Concepcion Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Concepción Win 74.4%
Draw 9.9%
Universidad de Concepcion Win 15.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Concepción1.46
Universidad de Concepcion1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Concepción Concepción
W W W W W
11 GF / 1 GA
Universidad de Concepcion Universidad de Concepcion
L L W L D
5 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
0.95
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.77
10
BTTS Yes
11
10
Over 2.5
12
3.82
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Concepción Concepción 24 matches
Universidad de Concepcion Universidad de Concepcion 22 matches
Concepción Statistic Universidad de Concepcion
10 Wins 6
3 Draws 5
11 Losses 11
30 Goals For 21
31 Goals Against 39
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 0.95
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.77
10 BTTS Yes 11
20 Over 1.5 15
10 Over 2.5 12
3 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 6
3.82 Shots On Goal 4
12.76 Total Shots 13.38
4.47 Corners 5.19
46.7% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Universidad de Concepcion. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Concepción expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Universidad de Concepcion in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universidad de Concepcion having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Concepción Analysis

With 17 points from 16 games and a place of 15, Concepción still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 16:23 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Joaquín Larrivey (5 goals), Cecilio Waterman (3 goals), Mario Sandoval (2 goals), with creative support from Yerco Oyanedel (2 assists), Agustín Urzi (2 assists), Joaquín Larrivey (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Universidad de Concepcion Analysis

So far, Universidad de Concepcion have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 19 points from 16 matches. The record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 13:27 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Cecilio Waterman (3 goals), Jeison Fuentealba (1 goals), Osvaldo González (1 goals), with creative support from Yerco Oyanedel (2 assists), Agustín Urzi (2 assists), Bryan Ogaz (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Concepción won 4 times, Universidad de Concepcion won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:7 from Concepción's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.1%)
Predicted formations: Concepción 4-2-3-1 / Universidad de Concepcion 4-3-3
H2H summary: Concepción wins 4, draws 0, Universidad de Concepcion wins 2

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 18 4 4 57:29 28 58
W D L D D
2 26 14 6 6 45:21 24 48
L W W W W
3 26 14 4 8 53:37 16 46
W D L W W
4 26 12 4 10 48:37 11 40
W W D L W
5 26 11 7 8 43:33 10 40
D L W W L
6 26 11 5 10 39:37 2 38
L D D L W
7 25 10 5 10 38:35 3 35
W L W L L
8 26 10 5 11 28:30 -2 35
W L D D L
9 26 9 8 9 30:39 -9 35
L W L L L
10 26 8 10 8 39:42 -3 34
D W L L W
11 25 9 6 10 34:40 -6 33
D D W W D
12 26 9 4 13 30:39 -9 31
W D L L W
13 26 7 9 10 28:35 -7 30
L D D W W
14 26 7 6 13 38:48 -10 27
D D D W L
15 26 6 5 15 19:47 -28 23
L L D L L
16 26 5 6 15 23:43 -20 21
L W D W L