Login Register
11.10.2026 20:30
Estadio Municipal Ester Roa Concepcion
Referee: Hector Jona
Concepción
Match Timeline
Union La Calera
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
juan salomoni
Union La Calera
🟨
21'
Cristian Riquelme
Concepción
🟨
28'
Mario Sandoval
Concepción
🟨
28'
Daniel Gutiérrez
Union La Calera
🔄
45'
Martín Hiriart Espinoza ↔ Maximiliano Fernández
Union La Calera
⚽
50'
Ethan Espinoza · Assist: Cristian Riquelme
Concepción
🔄
66'
Jorge Henríquez ↔ Diego Acosta
Concepción
🔄
66'
Cristian Riquelme ↔ Misael Dávila
Concepción
🔄
68'
Brian Nicolás Ferreyra ↔ Matías Campos López
Union La Calera
🔄
68'
Joan Cruz ↔ Bayron Oyarzo
Union La Calera
🟨
74'
Rodrigo Perez Casada
Union La Calera
VAR
79'
Fausto Grillo
Concepción
🔄
80'
Rodrigo Perez Casada ↔ Joaquín Soto
Union La Calera
🔄
84'
Mario Sandoval ↔ Fernando Martinez
Concepción
🔄
89'
Camilo Moya ↔ Yerko Leiva
Union La Calera
🔄
90+3'
Ethan Espinoza ↔ Matías Cavalleri
Concepción
🔄
90+3'
Joaquín Larrivey ↔ Carlos Escobar
Concepción
🟨
90+6'
Ariel Cáceres
Concepción
⚽
90+6'
Christopher Díaz · Assist: Bayron Oyarzo
Union La Calera

Concepción vs Union La Calera Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.4%
Odds 2.00
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.70
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.4%
2.00 ▥
BTTS No
60.3%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.70 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.1%
1.25 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10 ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Concepción Win 54.4%
Draw 16%
Union La Calera Win 29.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Concepción1.28
Union La Calera1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Concepción Concepción
WWDLW
42 GF / 37 GA
Union La Calera Union La Calera
WLDWL
37 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.19
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
12
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
17
3.7
Shots on Goal
3.61

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Concepción Concepción 34 matches
Union La Calera Union La Calera 31 matches
Concepción Statistic Union La Calera
15 Wins 9
5 Draws 9
14 Losses 13
42 Goals For 37
37 Goals Against 42
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.19
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
12 BTTS Yes 14
26 Over 1.5 21
11 Over 2.5 17
4 Over 3.5 9
12 Clean Sheets 10
10 Failed To Score 10
3.7 Shots On Goal 3.61
13.17 Total Shots 10.83
4.43 Corners 5.35
46.7% Ball Possession 50%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Union La Calera arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Union La Calera. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Union La Calera having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Concepción arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 31 points compared to Union La Calera in 16 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Concepción Analysis

Concepción sit 8 with 31 points after 23 league matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 25:26 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Larrivey (7 goals), Cecilio Waterman (5 goals), J. Henríquez (2 goals), with creative support from J. Henríquez (2 assists), Yerco Oyanedel (2 assists), Agustín Urzi (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Union La Calera Analysis

Union La Calera sit 16 with 17 points after 23 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 19:40, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through S. Sáez (4 goals), K. Méndez (3 goals), F. Pozzo (2 goals), with creative support from K. Méndez (6 assists), Christopher Díaz (3 assists), N. Avellaneda (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Concepción won 0 times, Union La Calera won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:1 from Concepción's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84%)
Predicted formations: Concepción 4-1-4-1 / Union La Calera 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Concepción wins 0, draws 0, Union La Calera wins 1

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 17 3 3 48:22 26 54
D D W W D
2 23 13 3 7 50:33 17 42
W W W W L
3 23 12 6 5 35:19 16 42
W W L L W
4 23 10 6 7 37:25 12 36
W L W W D
5 23 11 3 9 36:33 3 36
L W L W W
6 23 10 3 10 43:35 8 33
L W W L W
7 23 8 8 7 28:31 -3 32
L L L L W
8 23 9 4 10 25:26 -1 31
D L W D W
9 23 9 4 10 33:39 -6 31
W W W D L
10 23 7 9 7 34:38 -4 30
L W W D W
11 22 8 5 9 31:31 0 29
L L L W L
12 23 7 7 9 26:31 -5 28
W W L D D
13 24 8 3 13 28:38 -10 27
L L W L L
14 24 7 4 13 35:45 -10 25
D W L W D
15 24 6 5 13 18:40 -22 23
D L L L W
16 23 4 5 14 19:40 -21 17
W L L D L