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27.07.2026 00:30
Estadio Ester Roa
Referee: M. Riquelme
Concepción
Match Timeline
O'Higgins
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
14'
B. Yanez
O'Higgins
🟨
34'
N. Garrido
O'Higgins
⚽
45'
J. Larrivey
Concepción
🟨
49'
A. Caceres
Concepción
🟨
51'
M. Sandoval
Concepción
🔄
57'
M. Cavalleri ↔ J. Montecinos
Concepción
🔄
57'
M. Davila Carvajal ↔ Y. Rodriguez
Concepción
🔄
57'
G. Pinto ↔ E. Moreira
O'Higgins
🔄
69'
L. Diaz ↔ J. Poblete
O'Higgins
🔄
69'
T. Aviles ↔ B. Leiva
O'Higgins
🟨
71'
N. Rodriguez
Concepción
🟨
72'
J. Poblete
O'Higgins
🔄
73'
J. Henriquez ↔ F. Romero
Concepción
⚽
75'
M. Sandoval
Concepción
🔄
78'
M. Maturana ↔ J. Munoz
O'Higgins
🔄
78'
B. Yanez ↔ J. Tapia
O'Higgins
🟨
82'
N. Garrido
O'Higgins
🟥
82'
N. Garrido
O'Higgins
⚽
84'
J. Larrivey · Assist: J. Larrivey
Concepción
VAR
84'
F. Romero
Concepción
🔄
87'
E. Espinoza ↔ C. Riquelme
Concepción
🔄
87'
J. Larrivey ↔ D. Acosta
Concepción

Concepción vs O'Higgins Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Concepción Win 60.9%
Draw 3.8%
O'Higgins Win 35.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Concepción1.23
O'Higgins1.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
Concepción Concepción
W W W L W
9 GF / 5 GA
O'Higgins O'Higgins
W W D L D
10 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
10
BTTS Yes
14
9
Over 2.5
12
3.53
Shots on Goal
4.26

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Concepción Concepción 22 matches
O'Higgins O'Higgins 25 matches
Concepción Statistic O'Higgins
8 Wins 11
3 Draws 4
11 Losses 10
25 Goals For 35
31 Goals Against 34
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
10 BTTS Yes 14
18 Over 1.5 18
9 Over 2.5 12
3 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 6
3.53 Shots On Goal 4.26
12.47 Total Shots 12.89
4.53 Corners 5.11
47.7% Ball Possession 49.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward O'Higgins having the stronger overall control. O'Higgins arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors O'Higgins. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Concepción Analysis

Concepción approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 14 points from 15 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 14:23 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Larrivey (5 goals), C. Waterman (3 goals), I. S. Mesias Gonzalez (2 goals), with creative support from J. Larrivey (2 assists), Agustín Urzi (2 assists), Y. A. Oyanedel Hernandez (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

O'Higgins Analysis

With 20 points from 15 games and a place of 10, O'Higgins still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 7 defeats with a 19:22 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on F. Gonzalez (5 goals), Thiago Vecino (4 goals), A. Castillo (3 goals), with creative support from F. Gonzalez (4 assists), Bryan Rabello (2 assists), Thiago Vecino (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Concepción won 1 times, O'Higgins won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Concepción's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.2%)
Predicted formations: Concepción 4-2-3-1 / O'Higgins 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Concepción wins 1, draws 0, O'Higgins wins 1

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 17 4 4 51:28 23 55
D L D D W
2 25 14 6 5 45:20 25 48
W W W W L
3 25 13 4 8 52:37 15 43
D L W W W
4 25 11 6 8 41:31 10 39
L W W L W
5 25 11 5 9 39:36 3 38
D D L W L
6 25 11 4 10 46:37 9 37
W D L W W
7 25 9 8 8 30:38 -8 35
W L L L L
8 25 8 9 8 39:42 -3 33
W L L W W
9 24 9 5 10 37:35 2 32
L W L L W
10 25 9 5 11 27:30 -3 32
L D D L W
11 24 9 5 10 34:40 -6 32
D W W D L
12 25 7 9 9 28:33 -5 30
D D W W L
13 25 8 4 13 29:39 -10 28
D L L W L
14 25 7 5 13 36:46 -10 26
D D W L W
15 25 6 5 14 18:41 -23 23
L D L L L
16 25 5 6 14 23:42 -19 21
W D W L L